Major Snow storm coming to New York - prepare yourself

Scrabble123

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 7:37 am

mille wrote:

And, it could have easily been as bad as they thought for us. The storm didn't move as far west as originally predicted, and there was a very sharp cut off for the snowfall on the edge of the storm. It's way better to be prepared for 30" and have it turn out to be 10" than to be prepared for the 5" that weather.com was predicting last night, and have it be 30"!!! I think 'over hyped' might be a bad phrase, it wasn't that it was always going to be a foot or less and it was hyped up to be more. It was genuinely predicted to be a significant amount of snow right up until late last evening when it shifted!

It really sucks that when weather patterns change, people then take future weather predictions less seriously, which can obviously be bad (like in the case of Sandy).

However, I am quite happy about the relatively mild winter we've been having so far in NJ! Previous bouts of snow melted really quickly, this is the first 'storm' we've really had and it wasn't bad at all.

Just wanted to second this post.

Scrabble123

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 9:16 am

Why do people use phrases like, "Hashem had the last laugh" and "Look who is laughing now?!" It's completely disrespectful of individuals who devote their lives to prepare others and to the science that Hashem enabled us to understand. It does not prove that weather forecasters do not know what they are speaking about, but that BH Hashem made the storm turn slightly and miss NY. It doesn't give you right to ignore future warnings either, and it is dangerous to think so. No one is laughing at all because nothing is funny.

Barbara

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 9:31 am

southernbubby wrote:

Hashem had the last laugh.

The storm tracked further east than anticipated. There was 28 inches of snow on eastern Long Island. Up to 30 inches of snow in Framingham, Mass. Blizzard conditions in much of New England.

Im pretty sure that Hashem cares about those people as well, not just the Jews in Monsey, Brooklyn and Lakewood.

tigerwife

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 9:38 am

shabbatiscoming wrote:

This made me laugh. The same thing happened a few weeks ago here in Israel. They were predicting the end of the world snow storm. And we got NOTHING like what they thought. Nothing. Maybe a few inches.
Glad to know its the year of the cancelled snow storms Smile

Lol, this is exactly what I was thinking. De ja vu down to when my mom (in NY) told me her grocery is out of milk!

sky

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 9:50 am

I think it is human nature to feel grateful when you yourself are spared a difficult situation. It doesn't mean you are gloating regarding others. It feels like Someone was looking out for you, I know I felt that way last night.

youngishbear

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 9:54 am

In southerbubby's defense, the expression is used to say "man with all its technology and knowledge still cannot do God's job, or even predict His will".

Not implying that Hashem is happy with the outcome, or laughing at any individual who "messed up the prediction" or anyone's suffering ch"v, but that man's inflated collective ego took a bit of a beating.

mommy3b2c

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 10:02 am

chatouli wrote:

You can all thank me for the downgrade. I went and bought my kids snow pants and waterproof mittens in October. Their boots fit properly. So of course this winter has been much less snowy than last year, when they didn't have snow pants and the stores were sold out by the time it became clear they needed them! Smile

ETA imagine if I'd bought a snowblower or found a reliable service to clear the snow! It'd be 60 degrees all winter!

The kids still need snow pants today. I bought them a month ago, and I'm glad I did!

southernbubby

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 10:06 am

youngishbear wrote:

thanks youngish bear, that is exactly what I meant. I am not trivializing Long Island. You bears are cut out for this cold weather.

Scrabble123

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 10:09 am

youngishbear wrote:

Again, I don't see where the ego was inflated or where it took a beating. There was a prediction based on scientific methods. It appeared sound at the time, and was inaccurate when weather proved to us yet again that it's unpredictable. Nothing is 100% and it's important to stress that what happened here was NOT a result of an inflated ego, but of weather's unpredictable nature (and of course discuss how Hashem runs the world because that is first and foremost: it is He who made weather unpredictable in the first place). If people view this as an "inflated ego problem" they will be less likely to heed warnings in the future and it can put them in a potentially dangerous situation ch'v.

southernbubby

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 10:14 am

Mayor D Blasio was very sure that he was looking at a weather disaster. It is true that it is better to be safe than sorry. It is astonishing, however, how off the mark the weather predictors were in this case. No one was prepared that it could only be a small snowstorm. Everyone was braced for something epic and catastrophic.

Scrabble123

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 10:17 am

southernbubby wrote:

Because it was something epic. It is something epic. It just missed us because the storm went East. Not because the storm was insignificant.......... People in Southern California have to be braced for a "Big One" which potentially could damage and hinder the city, costing billions of dollars in damage. Scientists know that the faults must move, but they cannot predict specifically when. They know that they are overdo and that Californians should be prepared. They hope and pray it will be smaller, but must be prepared for what history and science is telling them....... You're hitting this one off of the mark...

southernbubby

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 10:19 am

Scrabble123 wrote:

could be but I hope that people don't brush it off as crying wolf when there really is a disaster on the way

Scrabble123

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 10:25 am

southernbubby wrote:

could be but I hope that people don't brush it off as crying wolf when there really is a disaster on the way

Exactly what I was stating. The attitude that you were projecting (others were as well), could potentially lead people to dismiss future warnings as "ego" and "gross exaggerations" when in reality they are not.

youngishbear

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 10:50 am

Scrabble123 wrote:

All true... nevertheless some people think modern technology is infallible.

mille

Tue, Jan 27 2015, 11:32 am

Scrabble123 wrote:

It's also worth mentioning that one of the models DID predict more or less the amount of snow that we received. It just so happens that the European model, the one that seemed most likely before the storm hit, was actually not accurate this time. Usually the European model IS the accurate one in these situations, but some weather reporting websites/tv/etc favor other models. I could be wrong, I am certainly not a meteorologist, I just find the science behind meteorology really interesting.