Shmittah and the Stock Market

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sky

Tue, Sep 01 2015, 4:49 pm

Ami had an article about how the stock market does horribly or there is a major financial crisis toward the end of the shmittah cylce (September time, every 7 years)

We were discussing it and someone mentioned that the market tends to roll on a 7 year cycle. Do you think they are just picking dates and matching events that are convenient or do you see a pattern as well?

This year (September 2015)
2008 - Lehman brother collapsed and US recession
2001 - recession, stock market tumbled (and 9/11)
1994 - terrible year for bonds
1987 - Black Monday
1980 - Savings and Loan Crisis
1973 - Arab oil embargo
...
1931 - Great depression
...
1917 - collapse of world empires (German, Russian, Austrian, Turkey)

Last edited by sky on Tue, Sep 01 2015, 7:26 pm; edited 1 time in total

Cmon be nice

Tue, Sep 01 2015, 5:01 pm

Great depression started in 1929- otherwise its very interesting

faigie

Tue, Sep 01 2015, 5:07 pm

Way to start a panic for nothing.

zaq

Tue, Sep 01 2015, 5:51 pm

This is a classic example of a yellow journalism device called "cardstacking" aka how to lie with statistics. Choose the stats that support your hypothesis and leave the rest. No one will bother looking things up to find out what you omitted.

Plenty of world-shattering events in the between years. And those "events" for the most part didn't just happen around September. They were for the most part processes that took a long time. 9/11 was an event of a day in September. The oil embargo? Not. The S&L crisis? Not. Recessions? Not. Bad year for bonds? Oh, puh-leeze.

zaq

Tue, Sep 01 2015, 5:51 pm

Uhm...what does Shavuot have to do with the price of bonds in China?

sky

Tue, Sep 01 2015, 7:26 pm

You are correct. I corrected the title to shmitta rather than shavous.

elisheva25

Tue, Sep 01 2015, 7:53 pm

I saw the other article in ami and I also read about it in other places . There is definitely truth to this. It's not just about 2008, or 2015 you also have to look up the exact dates . I didn't look up all the years, but to exact the market fell Elul 29, (2008) the last day of that shmittah cycle . That's what makes this so incredible . Now they are predicting for a financial market fall for the last day of Elul as well. I dont remember for sure, but I think I also read that in 2001, market crashed 6 days after 9/11 and that was also Elul 29th.and that just can't be a coincidence.

Amarante

Tue, Sep 01 2015, 8:22 pm

Just as bogus as the fact that the stick market follows skirt lengths. A bull market when skirts are shirt and a crash when skirts are long.

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