Did Dr. Shanik say that the Dec/Jan flu was probably Corona?

Sunny Days

Wed, Mar 18 2020, 3:22 pm

Simple1 wrote:

A few years ago my daughter had terrible flu like symptoms for a lot of days and tested negative for the flu. They did several tests because they were worried- and it ended up she had something called the adeno virus. Maybe this was something siimilar.

Exactly. There are so many different respiratory viruses circulating all winter. Some of them pretty similar to flu. So it could’ve been any other virus making its round in lkwd.

Mommyg8

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 7:22 am

amother [ Aubergine ] wrote:

That is relatively doubtful because it would double almost every day since then, which means it would have reached millions within one month and more people would have been hospitalized, especially elderly and those with underlying conditions. There are very many grandparents in Lakewood.

According to this website the rate of doubling is six days, not one day. According to the amount of presumed positives in our community, it seems to me rhat it does make sense that the coronavirus has been around for quite some time in our community. I'll leave it to the mathematicians here to figure out the exact number of days.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/.....d-19/

amother

Smokey

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:14 am

amother [ Mistyrose ] wrote:

Nasal / sinus wouldn’t have been it.

Does the Baltimore frum community have cases?

Right, I know what I had was not coronavirus. I’m saying that at the same time, so many people, most of the girls in my daughter’s school, my nonjewish coworkers and their kids - literally a ton of people - had a weird virus that took about 2 weeks to go away.

I have not yet heard of anyone here in the frum community who has covid19 but the rabbis and frum drs are predicting it will soon show itself because of Purim. Apparently at one of the megillah readings, someone came from Brooklyn who knew he had it and exposed everyone there. Then went back to Brooklyn.

amother

Aubergine

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:15 am

Mommyg8 wrote:

Even doubling at 6 days it would amount to over 1 million cases in 3 months (Jan through March).

amother

Aubergine

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:23 am

Mommyg8 wrote:

Right. Obviously.

I am talking about the end of February, beginning of March. Not January which as you say is mathematically impossible.

Sorry not sure I understood what you're saying. Someone here posted that Dr. Shanik said COVID19 could account for the Dec and Jan negative flu results. I do not believe he said that, especially since he has urged all day cares to close and has recently indicated everyone should stay home. In addition to that, if this would be in the community since Dec there be over 1 million cases, even if it doubles only every 6 days so it does not seem reasonable from an epidemiological sense that that tens and hundreds of negative flu results in Dec and Jan were COVID19.

On the other hand, this has clearly been in the US since early January and many epidemiologists believe some cities has tens of thousands of cases, most of which are undetected. The governor of Ohio said he believes he could have over 100,000 cases which seems unlikely, but the US is behind in testing.

amother

Black

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:26 am

I think it would be better to hear from an epidemiologist than from a pediatrician.

I'm sure he's a wonderful doctor, but you need someone with a broader perspective. There seems to be a tendency in the frum world to accept information only from familiar sources (or to falsely attribute information from an unfamiliar source to someone familiar.)

This can get in the way of listening to experts. In life and death situations, it's best to follow expert advice.

Just One

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:29 am

amother [ Lawngreen ] wrote:

1. I live in lakewood and never heard that about Dr shanik
2. Just like your never immune forever from a cold; Your never immune forever from the corona virus.
If someone gets corona today and its very mild they can get it again in a few months and it can be better, worse, or the same but no one knows

Like most viruses, the coronovirus only infects a person once. At that point the body has learnt the correct way to fight it so we are protected from that virus. This is what is called immunity
The reason we are never immune to the common cold is that what we call 'common cold' is actually not a specific virus. There are many hundreds of viruses out there that cause colds symptoms and you would need to have immunity to each one. That's the reason that adults have far less colds than kids (even though childrens' immune systems are generally stronger) since we have developed immunity to a portion of cold viruses

Mommyg8

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:37 am

amother [ Aubergine ] wrote:

Sorry, I didn't read through the whole thread and was just responding to the last few posts. My mistake.

I know a few people who feel that they might have had corona. This was just a few weeks ago.

As for what Dr. Shanik said or didn't say - it's all hearsay so it's hard to know. I've heard him misquoted so often that I don't believe a word I hear in his name.

I do wonder if it's possible that many people really did have the corona during that timeline. I know someone who said that he had the exact symptoms of corona yet tested negative for flu. This was just a few weeks ago.

Dr Shanik put a voicenote on Lakewood scoops whatsapp last night stating that a 40 year old man with no known prior health conditions is in the hospital in critical condition, and everyone should take it very seriously.

In general Dr Shanik is known to be ultra cautious and he's also known to do complete research before making any statements so those of us who use him trust him implicitly. As does most of Lakewood.

Thank you for explaining that this has been in the US since early January. That was my feeling based on the amount of people now sick but I'm glad to confirm. And I truly don't understand why the US government was sitting on their hands and doing nothing for the past few weeks! They should have started testing in January, February at the latest, meanwhile they didn't even HAVE Any tests until last week!!!!

A lot of people are going to die because of this negligence. Not ok.

amother

Aubergine

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:40 am

Just One wrote:

That is not entirely true for all viruses. As of now the opinion is that there is some immunity for some point of time, but likely not lifelong to COVID19. It will either disappear, or reappear but not cause as severe infection because of the community's prior exposure and will likely be incorporated into a vaccine.

WhatFor

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:49 am

amother [ Aubergine ] wrote:

My understanding was that just like the "common cold" and the flu, the coronavirus also constantly evolves. Therefore, people might anyway get it more than once because it mutates. But maybe that's not the reason why and people can just get the same exact one twice?

amother

Aubergine

Thu, Mar 19 2020, 8:58 am

WhatFor wrote:

I think the consensus is that this virus is not likely to have any significant mutations like the flu. And many doctors believe inmunity should be lifelong because that is generally the case with other cornavriuses. But we really just do not know. They think the reinfections from China and Japan may have been people released too soon pr a relapse with a small amount staying in the lungs. Immunity is complex so they are studying it. I'm not even sure if there is currently a test to test for antibodies.