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Forum
-> Coronavirus Health Questions
Sunny Days
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Thu, Mar 26 2020, 12:51 pm
So if they’re predicting it to peek still- is that number based on all the people that already had covid19 but because of lack of testing it wasn’t reported?
Because in that case- beH the medical load will be much less then they’re predicting and hopefully sustainable. And life will be able to go back to ‘normal’ Faster... Makes sense? Or am I completely hanging on to a lose hope thread?
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ora_43
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Thu, Mar 26 2020, 1:12 pm
I think the hope is that the peak would be a few weeks after starting social distancing. At the point you start social distancing, you have to assume that there are at least 4 pre-symptomatic cases for every 1 case you know of. Over the next few weeks, those cases rapidly become known (as people start showing symptoms) a lot more quickly than the people currently sick are getting better.
Add to that: social distancing reduces the spread of the sickness, but doesn't stop it completely. You go from 1 sick person making 3 other people sick (on average) to 1 sick person making, say, 0.6 other people sick, but the sickness is still spreading.
Eg week 1: 50 known cases, 200 unknown.
Week 2: 250 known cases, 1,000 unknown
Week 3 (social distancing starts): 1,225 known cases, 5,500 unknown (<- 25 week-1 cases resolved)
Week 4: 3,600 known cases, 7,000 unknown (<- note each sick person now infecting fewer people)
Week 5: 8,000 known cases, 5,000 unknown
Week 6: 10,000 known cases, 4,000 unknown
Week 7 (peak): 11,000 known cases, 3,500 unknown
Week 8: 10,900 known cases, 2,900 unknown.
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amother
Salmon
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Thu, Mar 26 2020, 1:14 pm
The snowflakes on this site can't be bothered to social distancing and be responsible, the peak is nowhere near, there is no end in sight.
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chocolate moose
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Thu, Mar 26 2020, 1:18 pm
amother [ Salmon ] wrote: | The snowflakes on this site can't be bothered to social distancing and be responsible, the peak is nowhere near, there is no end in sight. |
Not exactly true. If those most at risk stay home and the rest get sick and get better, we will peak and move on from there.
I don't know exactly when it will end, but it definitely will end.
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