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How would Coronavirus come to a complete end?
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Ora in town




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 1:12 am
Quote:
Who says the vaccine will be safe and effective?


That's what the FDA is for...

And that's why it takes at least a year to develop a vaccine: because a vaccine has to go through various tests to insure it is safe and effective... and this takes time...
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amother
Olive


 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 1:44 am
Ora in town wrote:
Quote:
Who says the vaccine will be safe and effective?


That's what the FDA is for...

And that's why it takes at least a year to develop a vaccine: because a vaccine has to go through various tests to insure it is safe and effective... and this takes time...

Granted, but if you read the rest of my post, there is no guarantee that even a "safe and effective" (as per the FDA) vaccine will actually be effective at ending the coronavirus issue. Case in point; flu and pertussis.
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proudmomma




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 2:44 am
I just heard that a patient who had fully recovered, tested positive again and is critically ill. That really scares me! Anyone have any more info regarding this? I'd love to hear that it's just "fake news".
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mirror




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 2:47 am
proudmomma wrote:
I just heard that a patient who had fully recovered, tested positive again and is critically ill. That really scares me! Anyone have any more info regarding this? I'd love to hear that it's just "fake news".


Most people are immune to it once they get it. It's possible that the person has an undiagnosed immunodeficiency problem. I know of several people who recovered and were exposed to it afterwards and did not get it again.
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proudmomma




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 2:51 am
Mirror- thank you! You calmed me down. I was spiraling into despair.
Hashem Yaazor!
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Ora in town




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 2:53 am
Quote:
Granted, but if you read the rest of my post, there is no guarantee that even a "safe and effective" (as per the FDA) vaccine will actually be effective at ending the coronavirus issue. Case in point; flu and pertussis.


Flu is virus that mutates quickly, I.e. flu is not one disease, it is caused by hundereds of different viruses, but since they all cause more or less the same symptoms, it's all called "influenza" or "flu" (that was before they knew to sequence DNA).
So the flu vaccine does immunise effectively and on a long term, but only against the viruses that were in the vaccine. It can happen that the big flu wave in a give year is caused by a virus that is not yet in the vaccine, then the vaccine does not help.
In this case, this Sars 2 Coronavirus does not seem to mutated rapidly, so a vaccine should be effective in the long run.

Which does not mean that there cannot be another virus in another year...

I understand that you will not vaccinate against flu if you do not belong to a risk group and are not in contact with people at risk. If you did, you should, because in this case a vaccine can save lives.

Pertussis:
You cannot spread the bacteria when you are immunized (either through vaccine or because you had it and healed), but the immunization wears off after 6-10 years, then you have to renew it. When you are not immunized and you catch it, you spread it, since it is highly infectious, even if you only have slight symptoms (or none at all).
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Ora in town




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 2:57 am
Quote:
I just heard that a patient who had fully recovered, tested positive again and is critically ill. That really scares me!


Test might have been a false negative... There are 30% false negatives in the current PCR tests for the virus...

(but way less than 10% false positives)
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amother
Olive


 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 3:07 am
Ora in town wrote:
Quote:
Granted, but if you read the rest of my post, there is no guarantee that even a "safe and effective" (as per the FDA) vaccine will actually be effective at ending the coronavirus issue. Case in point; flu and pertussis.


Flu is virus that mutates quickly, I.e. flu is not one disease, it is caused by hundereds of different viruses, but since they all cause more or less the same symptoms, it's all called "influenza" or "flu" (that was before they knew to sequence DNA).
So the flu vaccine does immunise effectively and on a long term, but only against the viruses that were in the vaccine. It can happen that the big flu wave in a give year is caused by a virus that is not yet in the vaccine, then the vaccine does not help.
In this case, this Sars 2 Coronavirus does not seem to mutated rapidly, so a vaccine should be effective in the long run.

Which does not mean that there cannot be another virus in another year...

I understand that you will not vaccinate against flu if you do not belong to a risk group and are not in contact with people at risk. If you did, you should, because in this case a vaccine can save lives.

Pertussis:
You cannot spread the bacteria when you are immunized (either through vaccine or because you had it and healed), but the immunization wears off after 6-10 years, then you have to renew it. When you are not immunized and you catch it, you spread it, since it is highly infectious, even if you only have slight symptoms (or none at all).

No, the 50% efficacy is even in a "good" year, when there is a good match. Other years it is even lower.

Pertussis: Of course you can spread the bacteria when you are immunized! Here, read this study, for example: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p.....2312/ You can be a carrier without getting ill yourself. The vaccine protects YOU, not others. Quote from linked study: "The potential for this type of vaccine failure has been observed in humans where reanalyses of aP vaccine studies revealed that individuals vaccinated with components of the aP vaccine were protected against disease, but not bacterial colonization." (If you are colonized, you can spread it.)

Actually rather similar to how asymptomatic individuals spread COVID19... they don't even know they're sick.

We do not yet know if this hypothetical vaccine will prove significantly effective (like the measles vaccine, which is over 90% effective after one dose), or if it will prevent transmission or not.
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Ora in town




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 3:23 am
Your study does not confirm that pertussis could be transmitted by people who are "immune"...
First it does not speak of "immune" carriers, but of "asymptomatic carriers" (which could be persons whose immunity has worn off.
Second it does not confirm anything about those asymptomatic carriers, it just says it would be the most parsimonious explaination of the figures. Could be that this theory could be rebutted if it is confirmed that many adults do not renew the vaccine (just like me, and I got it a few years ago)...
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just me!!




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 8:12 am
amother [ Periwinkle ] wrote:
1. A vaccine
2. Total isolation of all cases (seems difficult in our (USA) democratic society + it’s hard to know who has it without getting loads more testing done efficiently (also an issue in the US now)
3. Immunity (if it works)


nr. 2 is theoretical, simply not possible- think about all the healthcare workers going back and forth to hospital, food manufacturers,.... even with full protective gear virus can get caught + there's not enough resources to take that many tests...
very nice to see this theory written all over but just not doable so can we please find a different option?
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amother
Red


 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 8:41 am
The complete extermination of the human race?

I'm feeling fed up today.
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Ora in town




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 11:10 am
Quote:
The complete extermination of the human race?


That's also a possibility... I didn't even think of it... ...although I have a math student who asks this very question every day: How long will it take until we are all dead?

I take advantage of the opportunity to teach her exponential growth...

In this respect, Covid is behind schedule, since we took a factor of 20% per day, were cases should have reached 1 Million on March 31 and 2 Million today or so...
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Hashem_Yaazor




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 2:25 pm
Ora in town wrote:
Your study does not confirm that pertussis could be transmitted by people who are "immune"...
First it does not speak of "immune" carriers, but of "asymptomatic carriers" (which could be persons whose immunity has worn off.
Second it does not confirm anything about those asymptomatic carriers, it just says it would be the most parsimonious explaination of the figures. Could be that this theory could be rebutted if it is confirmed that many adults do not renew the vaccine (just like me, and I got it a few years ago)...

It's erev Pesach and I'm on my phone and can't really pull sources now and debate, but there is a lot of scientific literature out there showing that vaccinated for pertussis individuals, and yes, even when still technically immune, become asymptomatic and then spread it at even higher rates perhaps. If you are open to that idea and have time, feel free to look into it. It's quite fascinating actually!
This is one of the reasons CDC doesn't expect pertussis to ever be eradicated.
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ora_43




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 3:54 pm
just me!! wrote:
nr. 2 is theoretical, simply not possible- think about all the healthcare workers going back and forth to hospital, food manufacturers,.... even with full protective gear virus can get caught + there's not enough resources to take that many tests...
very nice to see this theory written all over but just not doable so can we please find a different option?

It takes fewer resources to test 1,000 people than to have 30 people in the ICU for weeks on end - which is what will probably happen, if 1,000 people each spread the illness to even just one other person.

Tests are the most practical solution. It's not an easy solution, but for now it seems to be easier than anything else.

The idea isn't to test every single person. It's to test anyone who comes in contact with someone with the illness. If someone is found to have had covid-19, anyone who was in class with them, or at a meeting, etc, self-quarantines and is also tested. If they test positive, all the people who came in contact with them self-quarantine. Etc.
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ora_43




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Apr 05 2020, 4:09 pm
amother [ Turquoise ] wrote:
I was not aware of this. I didn't think the virus can leave until as you described above, every infected person infects less than one person. This is herd immunity.

No, herd immunity is something else. Herd immunity leads to every infected person infecting, on average, less than one other person - but it's not the only way to get there. Like Ora in town said (excellent username, by the way), ebola and SARS died out that way, and herd immunity doesn't exist for either of those.

If we take an extreme, unrealistic scenario - if every single person was completely isolated for six weeks, at the end of those six weeks the virus would be gone. Without a vaccine or mass immunity.

Slightly less extreme scenario that actually seems to be working in some parts of the world - if the numbers drop enough, then a mix of moderate social distancing, good hygiene, and near-immediate quarantine of people who catch it could also kill it off.
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