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Plz help me understand flu vs Corona



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amother
OP


 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 12:36 pm
There's something that just doesn't make sense to me.

The CDC says that this flu season will result in between 29,000 and 59,000 deaths in the U.S. The flu season is October thru May. I'm not sure where that number is right now.

So if we take the middle of the anticipated flu deaths we get 44,000.

Currently there have been just under 23,000 deaths in the U.S. as a result of Covid-19. Experts are now anticipating there will be around 60,000 deaths in the U.S. as a result of Covid-19.

These numbers are relatively close.

I get it. If not for social distancing the numbers might have been way higher.

My question is why are so many people close to everyone dying of Covid-19 but you almost never hear of anyone dying of the flu? The yeshiva world nebach has a long list of frum yidden that died of Covid. Has there ever been a list of people who died from the flu?

The 2017-2018 flu season in the U.S. resulted in 959,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths. Does anyone know any of those people? And even if you do, Unfortunately it seems with Covid-19 almost all of us know people who died either we know them directly or thru a friend or relative. How is it that we don't know anyone affected by the flu when the overall numbers will likely be similar?
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amother
Tan


 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 12:42 pm
In one month of covid we have lost half the average number of people who die each year from the flu in 8 months. How are those numbers relatively close?????
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allthingsblue




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 12:47 pm
The numbers I saw were 100-200,000. If they're now saying 60,000 that means 40,000-140,000 lives will be saved due to social distancing.

Last edited by allthingsblue on Mon, Apr 13 2020, 1:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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nchr




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 12:47 pm
The hospitalization rate from COVID19 is much higher and no one has immunity so that means that an already overwhelmed hospital system can get chv even more overwhelmed. That is why prevention, social distance and testing is important.
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amother
Amethyst


 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 12:50 pm
amother [ Tan ] wrote:
In one month of covid we have lost half the average number of people who die each year from the flu in 8 months. How are those numbers relatively close?????


This virus has been circulating here since at least January, so it's been at least 3 months of coronavirus, not one.

We don't do this for the flu because we view flu deaths as routine. It's not news when someone dies from the flu apparently.

No matter what the models said, there's absolutely no way of knowing if it would have been worse, and how much worse it would have been if we had done nothing or if we had taken less restrictive mitigating measures (working from home when possible, reducing restaurant capacity but not closing, wearing masks and gloves in public). The models have proven incorrect time and time again. Trying to say "we'll X number of people would have died if we didn't lock down" is trying to prove a counterfactual and its impossible.

The best model we have for what would have happened had we taken a less abrasive and invasive approach is Sweden. They have done a much less drastic lockdown. Looking at the data, it appears that cases there have also plateaued and started to drop off (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/).
Considering how contagious the virus appears to be, I'm also sure Sweden will develop herd immunity relatively quickly and then will be able to be free of any restrictions long before a vaccine is found.
I'm sure many academic papers will be borne of the differences between what we did and what they did. It will not be at all surprising to me when the conclusion of many of those papers is that we went beyond what was necessary and the death toll would not have been drastically different if we had taken much less invasive measures.
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amother
OP


 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 1:02 pm
amother [ Tan ] wrote:
In one month of covid we have lost half the average number of people who die each year from the flu in 8 months. How are those numbers relatively close?????




Nobody is answering my question, but I'll respond to you.

You're explaining why Covid-19 is deadlier than the flu. You say in a single month we've lost half the average amount of people who die in an 8 month flu season.

I get that, we all agree, Covid-19 is far deadlier. But this has nothing to do with my question.

Whether 60,000 people c'vs die in a single day or over the course of several months doesn't change the likelihood of people knowing them.

I don't know a single person who has died from the flu in the last 10 years. There have probably been a half million deaths from the flu since then.

My question is this: How is it that almost all of us know a person out of the 23,00 people who have died from covid-19 in the past month, but almost none of us no anyone of the 500,000 people that have died from the flu in the past 10 years?
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Elfrida




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 1:05 pm
When people have flu, they die if the complications of flu. The cause of death may be listed as pneumonia. Or whatever else. The cause of the pneumonia was flu.

If you don't know anyone who has died of it, you are lucky. That doesn't mean that no one else has.
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amother
Seashell


 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 1:09 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
Nobody is answering my question, but I'll respond to you.

You're explaining why Covid-19 is deadlier than the flu. You say in a single month we've lost half the average amount of people who die in an 8 month flu season.

I get that, we all agree, Covid-19 is far deadlier. But this has nothing to do with my question.

Whether 60,000 people c'vs die in a single day or over the course of several months doesn't change the likelihood of people knowing them.

I don't know a single person who has died from the flu in the last 10 years. There have probably been a half million deaths from the flu since then.

My question is this: How is it that almost all of us know a person out of the 23,00 people who have died from covid-19 in the past month, but almost none of us no anyone of the 500,000 people that have died from the flu in the past 10 years?


A few reasons.

Firstly, flu deaths are relatively evenly distributed across the country. So it's a few people here and a few people there. Covid has a few hotspots in the country where it's very, very bad, and Brooklyn unfortunately is one of them, so naturally we know more of the victims. If half of Alabama was dying of covid but Brooklyn was untouched, you would hardly know any of the victims.

I live in Pennsylvania. Where I live is not so hard hit. Most people outside the Jewish community don't know anyone who died of covid. Certainly not dozens and dozens. They probably also think its overhyped.

Secondly, if a 95 year old died of the flu, you probably wouldn't know that it was from the flu. But because the covid deaths occurred in clusters, there were a whole bunch of them at once, including 90 year olds whose deaths otherwise might not have been remarkable.

Thirdly, there are still many people very sick in the hospital on ventilators. We hope they all have an immediate refuah shleima! But G-d forbid the death toll might still go up.
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amother
Lawngreen


 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 1:10 pm
I am sorry but really do not understand your question.

This virus is unprecedented, no immunity, no treatment (initially), unknown factors, no vaccine, virulently contagious, long contagion period pre symptoms, when asymptomatic, and post "recovery".

Yes people die of flu R"L. Still do not understand at all what you are comparing and what your question is...?
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amother
Amethyst


 

Post Mon, Apr 13 2020, 1:11 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
Nobody is answering my question, but I'll respond to you.

You're explaining why Covid-19 is deadlier than the flu. You say in a single month we've lost half the average amount of people who die in an 8 month flu season.

I get that, we all agree, Covid-19 is far deadlier. But this has nothing to do with my question.

Whether 60,000 people c'vs die in a single day or over the course of several months doesn't change the likelihood of people knowing them.

I don't know a single person who has died from the flu in the last 10 years. There have probably been a half million deaths from the flu since then.

My question is this: How is it that almost all of us know a person out of the 23,00 people who have died from covid-19 in the past month, but almost none of us no anyone of the 500,000 people that have died from the flu in the past 10 years?


Purim was the week before most of the shutdowns started. Purim is a holiday of mass gathering, singing, drinking together. That was probably the Covid tipping point- a lot of young people were carrying asymptomatically and then transferred it to all of their older and vulnerable family members at their seudahs. The non-orthodox/non-jewish population does not have the same mass gatherings that we do, and when they do they're usually not singing (which means spitting) at the top of their lungs.

Additionally jews tend to live in higher-density areas which greatly impacts the number of case. If the jewish community was centered in South Dakota as opposed to Brooklyn, Monsey etc you probably wouldn't know people dying.
But I think the main reason is Purim
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