For those who are strongly against continuing lockdown

ora_43

Mon, May 11 2020, 9:33 am

#BestBubby wrote:

20 Days ago GA opened up economy - let all businesses open. The "experts" predicted massive deaths and hospitalizations - DID NOT HAPPEN!

Experts predicted around 5,000 deaths by August. It's not August yet. Don't tempt fate.

Obviously I hope it does work for Georgia. And hey, if the vitamin D thing turns out to be a big factor, Georgia in the summer is probably one of the better places to be. But let's not tempt fate.

I'll just add that the virus doesn't know or care what the economy looks like. Businesses being open only matters to the extent that it affects people's behaviors re: virus safety. Countries with enough personal safety behaviors have been able to keep their economies open with minimal issues (eg Taiwan, South Korea).

(weather might also be a factor in where the virus hits, as could population, so I don't want to be too quick to credit individual behavior - but it does seem to be a factor)

southernbubby

Mon, May 11 2020, 9:39 am

ora_43 wrote:

My brother in law, who lives in Florida and plays golf has to take Vitamin D supplements due to testing low.

DrMom

Mon, May 11 2020, 9:55 am

southernbubby wrote:

People who are working from home are probably not buying breakfast on the way to work. The commercial rent in many places has been driving out businesses in the last decade since online shopping became popular. When I lived in Detroit, there were entire malls that had been boarded up. The US was over saturated with ready to wear clothes and then came along Marie Kondo, capsule wardrobes, second hand shops and tiny house living. That and the environmental movement changed the shopping habits of America and meant some of these stores were in trouble before the lock down.
Basically it may cost more to operate a business at a significantly reduced capacity than to close it entirely, unless the rent is forced to be lowered.

So? This still does not refute the notion that opening stores will boost the economy.

Here in Israel we opened street stores a few weeks ago and malls last week. People are out shopping. As much as pre-corona? No, not yet, but the recovery just started. But it's certainly generating more business than during the lock-down. The lady who cuts my hair has been super-busy, that's for sure.

The only way out of this is to start somewhere.

Also, if no stores can afford high rents, then landlords will be forced find businesses who can pay what they are asking or (more likely) lower rents.

Last edited by DrMom on Mon, May 11 2020, 12:35 pm; edited 1 time in total

southernbubby

Mon, May 11 2020, 10:17 am

DrMom wrote:

So? This still does not refute the notion that opening stores will not boost the economy.

Here in Israel we opened street stores a few weeks ago and malls last week. People are out shopping. As much as pre-corona? No, not yet, but the recovery just started. But it's certainly generating more business than during the lock-down. The lady who cuts my hair has been super-busy, that's for sure.

The only way out of this is to start somewhere.

Also, if no stores can afford high rents, then landlords will be forced find businesses who can pay what they are asking or (more likely) lower rents.

Lower rent will probably do more for the economy than evicting businesses that are struggling to recover.
I recently spent a month in Israel, which, while I am not an authority on the economy of Israel, it certainly looked to me that tourism is a huge part of the economy. I certainly did my part. Apparently the government is not as excited about tourists at the moment.

DrMom

Mon, May 11 2020, 10:23 am

southernbubby wrote:

So if the market favors lowering commercial rents, that is probably what will happen.

Yes, tourism is a large part of our economy.
Yes, the tourism market will suffer in 2020.

And?

amother

Plum

Mon, May 11 2020, 10:26 am

DrMom wrote:

lso, if no stores can afford high rents, then landlords will be forced find businesses who can pay what they are asking or (more likely) lower rents.

Not necessarily in the US because of the tax write offs for vacant real estate, offsetting other gains. I'm not going to pretend to understand it, but there's a commercial real estate owner in my area who is accused of keeping storefronts vacant on purpose for that reason.

Moreover, given the length of commercial leases, you're better off letting it sit for 6 months than renting it at a reduced rate for a decade or more.

amother

Slategray

Mon, May 11 2020, 11:44 am

amother [ Pewter ] wrote:

It’s not. Schools have not and never will be germ free. Life has not and never will be germ free. We have to get over this idea that we can possibly prevent every germ from infiltrating our lives. There is a new virus. This new virus increases our risk of dying ever so slightly on a global scale. Last year if you went outside you had a .02% chance of dying from something every time you walk out the door. Now maybe it’s a .025% chance. In perspective, we’ve been lowering and lowering our chance of death for generations now so this increase isn’t really an increase. In the 1600s you probably had like a 10% chance of dying every time you left your house. They had very few treatments for illnesses, basically no understanding of medicine, and very few laws to protect people like in workplace safety and other situations. People still left their houses.

We’re not G-d. We can’t prevent all illnesses or all tragedies. We can try to do our best, but I don’t think our best requires the stoppage of all human activity and enjoyment for the next 2 years. Unless you know something the rest of the world doesn’t, death, and even premature death, has always been and will always continue to be a nonpreventable fact of life.

This is a ridiculous post where the numbers are so far off from reality.

Pewter , not even during the black plague do your numbers resemble anything sensible. You posit that in the 1600s, more than half the population die weekly if they step out of their house once a day. Your post is nonsense.

southernbubby

Mon, May 11 2020, 12:32 pm

DrMom wrote:

So if the market favors lowering commercial rents, that is probably what will happen.

Yes, tourism is a large part of our economy.
Yes, the tourism market will suffer in 2020.

And?

And the question will be if an economy can sustain itself without a lot of outside money. NYC also makes lots of money on tourism. The average person, with his routine expenses doesn't do that much for the economy. If the average person buys a luxury item, he stimulates the economy much more than when he buys himself groceries and pays his rent. So what will motivate the average person to buy the luxury item? The lock down will probably get him to buy a better television but unless he has somewhere fancy to go, why does he need something fancy to wear?