Missouri: Hair Stylists working with Covid exposed 140 clien

Ora in town

Tue, May 26 2020, 5:01 am

amother [ Emerald ] wrote:

Is this a DIY study?

Studies that tested whole populations (cruise ship, Vo in Italy, Gangelt in Germany, blood donors in the Netherlands, School in France, etc.) regularly found that there were many more undetected carriers than registered cases...
In Germany, they found that there were about 8x more people infected than registered cases....
So you can assume that 80-97% of infected people will not get tested and not detected...

So it might be oK to assume that around 80% of carriers or more are without symptoms or without symptoms they clearly attribute to Covid19....

amother

Purple

Tue, May 26 2020, 5:19 am

Ora in town wrote:

So then how can you claim that there is no herd immunity in BP/Willi?

If there were thousands of people sick around purim/pesach time, then there should have been 8 times more people who were infected. That would surely be 80% of the community.

mommy3b2c

Tue, May 26 2020, 6:41 am

amother [ Beige ] wrote:

I hear you, but here we have 140 people getting sick just because of 2 hairdressers in one salon. Imagine the real numbers that could happen?

lol. In actuality, so far none of the 140 tested positive. See what they did there? Sensationalism works.

ora_43

Tue, May 26 2020, 7:12 am

amother [ Purple ] wrote:

80% of BP would be over 80,000 people.

So if eg 4,000 people were sick, you could have had 'thousands' sick and still only have had 25,000 cases, which is nowhere near herd immunity levels.

Keep in mind that 'unregistered' cases and asymptomatic cases aren't the same thing. The Germany study didn't show that 80% of cases are asymptomatic, only that 80% aren't tested. Plenty of people got a little sick, but didn't bother to get tested. (Studies show that around 30-40% of cases are truly asymptomatic.)

So even if 30,000 people felt sick, that might mean 42,000 cases, which means - still no herd immunity.

I'm not saying there definitely isn't herd immunity, either. Just that it's not safe to assume.

ora_43

Tue, May 26 2020, 7:17 am

As for the original post - goes to show why a safe reopening has to include a safety net for people who get sick.

Or, alternatively, (although this is by far not my preferred option), serious penalties for putting other people at risk this way.

As long as there's an incentive for people to be out and about even when sick, some people are going to keep doing that.

southernbubby

Tue, May 26 2020, 7:33 am

amother [ Oak ] wrote:

No one is saying it’s over
It isn’t over until a vaccine is found
But as long as hospitals and the medical field is dealing with the situation I think we have to move on. (With precautions)

In the UK, the way of testing potential vaccines is to administer them to a group of people who have agreed to socialize normally and see if they catch the virus. The only problem is, the virus is waning and there may not be sufficient exposure to determine if the vaccine actually protected anyone.
I am truly interested in the vaccine but DH's doctor told him not to be the first guy to take it because it's being rushed onto the market.
I will be happy simply to be able to safely kiss my babies but I plan to cut DH's hair until I know that it is safe for him to return to the barber.
I think that a lot of behaviors that people developed during the pandemic are going to be around for awhile which will make it harder for the economy to recover.

imasinger

Tue, May 26 2020, 7:50 am

You see, this is a classic example of what is meant by lies and statistics.

If 80% of those infected are silent carriers

And research shows antibodies in a maximum of 20% of a highly infected population

Then the number of silent carriers is 80% of that 20% maximum, not of the whole area's population.

So, in the example above, if BP has 100,000 people, and 20,000 people had it at some point in time, then some fraction of 16,000 were asymptomatic carriers. Probably not all at once.

Last edited by imasinger on Tue, May 26 2020, 7:51 am; edited 1 time in total

PinkFridge

Tue, May 26 2020, 7:50 am

ora_43 wrote:

As long as there's an incentive for people to be out and about even when sick, some people are going to keep doing that.

That's going to take getting used to. Of course people would go out and about with a slight cold, sore throat, etc. NOT doing so is going to take getting used to.

Ora in town

Tue, May 26 2020, 8:24 am

Einikel wrote:

None of the articles mention how many customers got sick, just that they were exposed.

All those who were exposed had to quarantine...
So it's not a nice thing to have, even if you don't get sick...

keym

Tue, May 26 2020, 8:27 am

Personally I think the next "stimulus package" should mostly have parts that help people financially and legally hold their job if they are not feeling well or were exposed.
Those 2 hair dressers who had mild symptoms (I say mild because clearly they were able to stand up and work for hours) very likely don't have the ability to pay their bills without coming to work, a fear of being hungry or homeless, and would lose their job if they refused to come to work for 2-3 weeks.
And the 140 people who were exposed, probably don't have the financial wherewithal to not go to work for 2 weeks and to be assured that their job will be waiting for them, no repercussions when the 2 weeks are over.
This is the #1 thing that needs to be addressed for safe opening.

Ora in town

Tue, May 26 2020, 8:38 am

keym wrote:

I don't understand. Don't you have mandatory sick leave insurance for employees, like any other civilized country?

I can't understand the concept of a country where employees would not get paid during sick leave.

What kind of barbarious system is that?

keym

Tue, May 26 2020, 8:54 am

Ora in town wrote:

I don't know exact details.
But most Americans have an average of 10-15 paid sick and personal days per calendar year. More than that even if you can't get fired, you won't be paid. Maternity leave and serious illness, there are usually better conditions.
But if I'm a school bus driver, and I have symptoms, I likely will not get paid the full 14-21 days while my symptoms are spreading. And if I manage to get paid for the 2 weeks of fever and sore throat in June, then I've maxed out on all my sick days, and I won't be able to take off when I'm sick again in September or if my child is sick in August.

Amarante

Tue, May 26 2020, 9:20 am

Ora in town wrote:

There is no sick leave or paid leave for many workers - especially those in the low paying service or retail types of jobs which are front line in terms of exposure from and to others.

There was some discussion of funding sick leave for those with Corona symptoms but it didn't pass. A few large companies which don't ordinarily provide sick leave stated that they would provide two weeks for anyone who became ill with Covid19.

However, many hair dressers are not technically employees as they rent a chair and are setf-employed so they would have a strong incentive to go to work however ill they felt because they only earned if they worked.

I agree that it is just another instance of failure of American "exceptionalism".

Ora in town

Tue, May 26 2020, 9:37 am

keym wrote:

But that's a completely stupid system...
You need the sick days for sick people, and not for people who just want to chill...
So it is important that only sick people take sick leave (medical certificate), but that those can take sick leave for as long as they need...

By the way: in Sweden, strict instructions to stay home at the least symptons also cut the flu season short.
So in the end, for the whole economy, it makes more sense to stay with cold or flu or anything, because yes, this employee will have more sick days, but he will not transmit the disease to co-workers, and in the end it will result in less sick days...

Amarante

Tue, May 26 2020, 9:42 am

keym wrote:

I am not sure where you get your statistics on paid leave but most retail and service workers have NO paid leave of any kind.

Only those working for corporations with good benefits have paid sick leave and they also generally lack adequate health insurance.

One of the ironies of America is that workers at Walmart have no medical insurance and if they are lucky, they work in a state with expanded Medicaid so ironically the American taxpayer is subsidizing the low ages and non-benefits of provided by Walmart and other exploitative employers.

Amarante

Tue, May 26 2020, 9:46 am

Ora in town wrote:

It's not actually a stupid system in general as it is difficult to obtain a doctor's note for an employee's illness unless they have an extended illness which requires going on disability.

The system is intended to help families with children for example since parents can take a day off if their child is ill.

The problem is that these kinds of benefits (any kind of paid leave - adequate health insurance) are not available for those low on the rung who work in restaurants, stores and other low paying positions.

There are many things wrong with the way US labor is treated but flexible time off for those lucky enough to work in a corporation with ANY time off is not necessarily bad.