Can't get away from herd immunity?

youngishbear

Tue, Jun 02 2020, 10:36 pm

ora_43 wrote:

It's never going to be possible. OTOH it isn't possible for any other illness, either. It's all just estimates.

So statisticians can do whatever they can to get around the issues - using "excess mortality" instead of confirmed covid19 deaths, using antibody test results instead of reported cases, looking specifically at harder-hit areas to get around the testing inaccuracy, etc - and we can get numbers that at least allow us to get a general sense. And to compare this to other illnesses. How much more fatal is covid19 compared to measles, compares to the flu, etc.

I wonder if we have any reliable information regarding the rate of false positives and false negatives in antibody testing.

It was my understanding that testing doesn't give an individual much information because of the high failure rate, but could provide epidemiological data if we know the false positive to false negative ratio and can control for that in the data.

ora_43

Tue, Jun 02 2020, 10:37 pm

Just for the record:

March 11:

Quote:

“Barsi” led an aggressive effort to slow the virus’s penetration into Israel — not because he thought he could stop it, but because slowing its spread would prevent overtaxing Israel’s hospitals and health infrastructures.

From here

March 19:

Quote:

"But I don’t think anyone at this point is trying to stop the outbreak. I think that’s probably beyond our ability already. What we are trying to do is slow the progression of the pandemic so the health care system can handle the situation."

From here

amother

Forestgreen

Tue, Jun 02 2020, 10:43 pm

Cici and Elisheva...I just wanna say I absolutely agree with you. I didn't read all responses, but I know that majority of people think otherwise. (That is why I choose to be anonymous right now)

People are very brainwashed by the media and so called 'experts'. In truth, they dont make sense.

The virus got here and affected everyone differently. Some barely knew they had it, others had it tough.

Unfortunately, we didnt know how to treat it, and many died as a result from that.

Now that most of us have been exposed to it, many gained immunity for the time being. We dont know if we will get a second wind, but locking up people, elderly, children, and stores is not the answer.

Btw you can yell at me all you want, but there is not one person that knowingly died from exposure to a child. There is no evidence that kids are even carriers. It's all speculation. And the fact that kids are deprived of normal school and camp is the dumbest decision ever.

But, people are foolish and believe the govt. knows best and cares about us. They believe Cuomo when he says that WE lowered the amounts of death. He will never admit that he was wrong all along with his predictions. He will never put God in the picture. He continues to control us. And his state is in a big mess right now.

CiCi

Tue, Jun 02 2020, 11:08 pm

ora_43 wrote:

We're not a hive mind. I'm stating my position, other people are stating their positions.

If you say "lockdown doesn't permanently end the spread of the virus," and then I say, "right, that was never the idea" - what is there to defend? According to what you're saying now, I was agreeing with you, no?

But I think the issue is that you're making a few assumptions that you're not even seeing as assumptions, just facts. Eg

- that New York has herd immunity now, and that (not the lockdown, the weather, or any other factor) is why the number of new cases there is dropping (although still much higher than the daily number of new cases in Israel, ftr)

- that the real NYC covid19 death rate is only 50% of the actual death rate; the rest was all hospital neglect

- that there's a huge group of people out there who thought we were going to eliminate the virus

- that posters here "had to admit" that lockdown doesn't prevent long-term spread in response to your argument (as opposed to never having believed that, even before this thread)

- that lockdown "didn't work" in Israel (it worked beautifully at doing what it was supposed to do)

I think that if you look at exactly what parts of your posts people are disagreeing with, you'll find that nobody has disagreed with the basic premise that the virus is here to stay. People are arguing against specific assumptions you and a couple other posters have made, not against the basic concept of how viruses work.

Yes, I do believe that New Yorkers have herd immunity now. Is that a reason to be so aggressive? I have my beliefs based on research I do, and you can have your beliefs.

I said I believe that 50% of hospital death rates, not actual death rates, were from hospital neglect. I still believe that. I'm not aggressive to you if you don't believe that, I don't expect you to change your mind, why would you be aggressive to me if I dont believe the way you do?

Well, many people expressed that view. I simply went according to their own words. I did not say huge or small, I gave no indication to the amount of people who believe that.

I am vehemently denying that "posters had to admit" that lockdown doesnt prevent long-term spreading in response to my argument. No one had to admit to anything, but it was ridiculous to start an argument when the end result was admittance, oftentimes with contradicting remarks, to the fact that the lockdown does not prevent long-term corona spread.

I did not say the lockdown didn't work in Israel. I only said lockdowns do not prevent long-term spread.

silverlining3

Wed, Jun 03 2020, 5:45 am

Ladies, can I make something clear?? When someone states their thoughts, beliefs, or opinion, it does NOT mean it's fact and that one is wrong. Everyone bases their opinion on what Makes sense to them or on what they read, and is entitled to. Yes, on a different thread where I stated my thoughts on something I was attacked for spreading false information. NO I WAS NOT. FOR HEAVENS SAKE, I WAS SAYING WHAT I THOUGHT!
When you have a face to face or over the phone conversation with a friend or whoever, and disagree on things, I wonder if you'd argue the same way it's done here? Quite sure that not. It's sad that people feel free to talk however they desire because it's behind a screen and no-one knows who you are. If you can't comment in an enough decent way, rather don't comment. Because when you'll feel attacked you'll also try to defend yourself.

Fight nicely. Peace out
Good morning to you all!

banana123

Wed, Jun 03 2020, 6:00 am

CiCi wrote:

Antibodies testing is not showing that NY has herd immunity. It's showing that the number of people who have antibodies is in the single digits. Nowhere even close to herd immunity.

And yet so many people still died. Isn't that a shame?

amother

Gray

Wed, Jun 03 2020, 6:03 am

CiCi wrote:

Quote:

I'm with Ora here. Your statements lent the impression that you are against the lockdown. And the force and adamancy of your posts made it sound like you have all the facts and anyone who disagrees with you is in the wrong. Additionally, you keep on stating assumptions and possibilities as facts.

Perhaps try to tone it down a bit. Your message then will come across more clearly, and you may just end up appreciating another person's viewpoint

I've looked over my posts and all I see was that I've been attacked for my opinions. of course I will react forcefully. I've been told that I want others to die, my opinions were made fun of..You too, could've said the same thing in a nice tone, the way you told me to do. I have no problem correcting my mistakes. I didn't change my opinion, but neither did you. So you shoud all your advice first before dispensing it to others.

Furthermore, after arguing against me, everyone had to admit that the lockdown does not prevent long-term spreading of the disease. So exactly what was the point of arguing with me and bashing me?

I don't think you're getting my point. Posters didn't take offense at your opinions. We took offense with you stating your opinions as facts. We took offense at you presenting yourself as an expert virologist with all the knowledge, when the actual experts aren't certain of anything just yet.

We also took offense with you refusing to acknowledge what other posters have repeatedly stated. With one example being your statement above about the lock down. Many other posters have repeatedly stated that the goal of the lockdown was to prevent SHORT TERM, not long term, spread of the virus, to allow the hospital to manage the patients and to allow the medicine to catch up with a treatment. And instead of acknowledging these statements, you continuously spin it into that they're agreeing with you. We are not agreeing with you because you're confusing the goals of the lockdown. The short-term goal was (what I've said above) - slow the spread for the medical world to manage and catch up which would lead to the long-term goal of limiting the number of deaths.

What I think you actually want to discuss is if the short-term benefits of the lockdown are over, and if it's time to reopen. So if you want to do that in a proper conversation, where we acknowledge the limitations of our knowledge instead of purporting to be experts, and have a proper back and forth without letting heightened passion block out other's words, then let's proceed. Otherwise, the best thing to do in such a situation is to give a pat on the back and say, you're right, you're right, of course you're right, and just walk away.

amother

Forestgreen

Wed, Jun 03 2020, 7:20 am

banana123 wrote:

I work in place where they test, and the numbers are way more than single digits.

We dont know clearly what that means anyway.

Yes, its very sad that people died. But there really isn't a way we could have prevented it. It seems that people care more for those that died from covid than cancer or anything else..

banana123

Wed, Jun 03 2020, 9:36 am

amother [ Forestgreen ] wrote:

More than single digits for how many people are immune?

ETA - I just checked and it seems that since last time I checked, when NY was at about 8%, now they are at 19.9%. Nice, but still nowhere close to herd immunity.

I agree that people care more for COVID-19 patients than for cancer patients. But I think that the rate at which people catch COVID-19 and the rate at which people require hospitalization is too high to ignore, and that yes, had NY acted differently and earlier, this could've been in large part prevented.

ora_43

Wed, Jun 03 2020, 9:46 am

silverlining3 wrote:

As the saying goes, 'you're entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts.'

If someone shares an "opinion" that, say, the sun actually revolves around the earth, then people are going to call that out as incorrect. And rightly so.

I'm not saying you deserved to be called out. I'm not sure what thread you're talking about. I'm just talking in general.

We can respect each other's opinions, but still call out inaccurate claims about history, or science, or anything else in the realm of fact.

amother

Forestgreen

Wed, Jun 03 2020, 5:52 pm

banana123 wrote:

Where did you check? On the internet you wont find the accurate numbers...in my place over 50% of the people there have antibodies.

Not saying that gives us herd immunity, but its def more than the single digits.

On the other hand, a dr. that worked with patients nonstop throughout the height of the virus, told us he tested 4 times and he has no antibodies. He doesnt believe in the masks or locking up. He saw patients that were quarantined for weeks, and nevertheless got sick. Just saying.

banana123

Thu, Jun 04 2020, 12:19 am

amother [ Forestgreen ] wrote:

Claims of an anonymous imamother poster who doesn't even give an exact location or lab name are more reliable than the results of verified tests done by labs not afraid to identify themselves, that are posted on the internet?

The quarantine where you live (assuming it's not one of the countries that did very very well in this outbreak) was not tight enough to prevent people from getting sick. The point was that less people should get sick at once so that the hospitals will be able to handle them all.

DrMom

Thu, Jun 04 2020, 12:33 am

I am guilty of not having read the entire thread, so please feel free to ignore if this has already been posted.

A recent wide scale serological test in Israel estimates that ~180,000 - 270,000 people in Israel have had covid-19 (that's ~10x more than the number of recorded cases -- lots of asymptomatic folks, I guess). So that's only ~2-3% of the population.

If herd immunity is a thing, we sure don't have it.

OTOH, we've "only" had <300 deaths, so that's a <0.1% mortality rate.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/.....port/

amother

Forestgreen

Thu, Jun 04 2020, 12:48 am

banana123 wrote:

You are just as anonymous as me. Is banana better than forestgreen? Rolling Eyes

You want me to give you an address where I work? Do you want my phone number as well??

Yes, I know what the point was - to slow it down. What most people fail to realize is that:
1. We did it too late anyway,
2. People got sick whether they were locked in or not
3. We may have more immunity being that we were exposed. Israel is not done with it, and perhaps time will tell if they did it better than us.

One thing I believe is that we traded in one problem for many others problems.

Masks are pathetic.
Keeping kids home is useless.
My opinion. As good as yours.

DrMom

Thu, Jun 04 2020, 1:01 am

amother [ Forestgreen ] wrote:

You are just as anonymous as me. Is banana better than forestgreen? Rolling Eyes

What does #2 mean?

And why are masks "pathetic" if you mainly get sick by people coughing/breathing on you?

You can state whatever opinions you want, but you will convince others of your opinion if you provide persuasive arguments to back up those opinions.

banana123

Thu, Jun 04 2020, 1:08 am

amother [ Forestgreen ] wrote:

You are just as anonymous as me. Is banana better than forestgreen? Rolling Eyes

At least I posted under my screenname.

No, I didn't ask for address or phone number. But it would be nice if you say "NYC's Forest Medical Center lab showed that 50% of those tested had antibodies," for example. You are anonymous anyways, and there are probably hundreds of people working there.

Just saying "where I work" with no other identifying details, not even county, not even lab, nada, means absolutely zero.

1. Yes
2. Of course - because the lockdown wasn't complete, because people still weren't SD at stores, because people live with other people and at least one person in each household usually has to leave the house for food, medicine, or work, and it's very rare that they don't. Because sometimes the incubation period is unusually long.
3. That would be great if you had more immunity if people were exposed, unfortunately research isn't supporting the idea that immunity lasts longer than a few months, so herd immunity if there is no vaccine is near impossible, and meanwhile you have had tens of thousands of deaths, almost certainly with more to come. And you're STILL nowhere near real herd immunity. Even if you get 60% with antibodies you still need other protective measures because that's still not high enough.

Yes, everything in life is a tradeoff. That's the way life goes.

Masks protect other people and if everyone uses a mask, then people can be protected.
Keeping kids home is not useless if you do it right. But hey, I get that most people hate having their kids at home, so whatever floats your boat.
Your OPINION is as good as mine, for sure. But your OPINION is not fact, just like mine isn't, and my point was that you have claimed things as fact while refusing to provide us with anything to go on other than "amother forestgreen said so."

CiCi

Thu, Jun 04 2020, 4:05 am

silverlining3 wrote:

Thank you for saying that. It's disgusting that people are attacked for stating their beliefs. Discussion and debates can be done in a respectful, mature manner.

The fact that they called me out for "daring" to state my beliefs regarding immunity is disgusting. How dare I say "I believe"!! It's a police state on imamother! How dare I have my own "beliefs" if it clashes with theirs! They dont realize that almost everything they post is their own beliefs as well and not based on facts.

Last edited by CiCi on Thu, Jun 04 2020, 5:10 am; edited 1 time in total

CiCi

Thu, Jun 04 2020, 5:09 am

amother [ Forestgreen ] wrote:

Their speculation and beliefs are pedaled as "facts" but we are to be silenced when stating our beliefs.

It's so true that God is left out of the picture and Coumo makes it all about him. He has a straight path to hell with his draconian laws forcing many to lose their source of income and critically ill and dying patients from seeing their families while having no issue with thousands rioting in the streets. Words fail me when I see how evil human beings can be.