Dr Ditchek-Clear cases of reinfection in frum comm,new cases

amother

Burlywood

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 4:55 pm

Success10 wrote:

Can someone brilliant please answer: If there is no long term immunity, how can this thing ever go away? How would a vaccine even be effective if the natural antibodies the virus produces don't last?

The virus will mutate to a weaker strain within 2 years. It does this to survive (if it stayed severe, it would die off completely because everyone who had it would die. This would not be adaptive for the virus. My physician explained this to me; hope I'm getting the explanation right). This is how viruses have worked historically. So, it will always be around but will not be as severe.

Mommyg8

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 5:01 pm

amother [ Bronze ] wrote:

First of all, I'm not brilliant, but I will tell you what I think, based on my graduate degree in this area.

1) No facebook post should ever be taken as scientific fact.

2) His "facts" and evidence" is not presented, for HIPAA reasons, obviously. But for everyone saying that he's saying "facts" - he's saying things he's seen. I know it sounds like semantics, and it is, but it's different. Facts include de-identified patient samples, test origins, antibody levels, and which laboratories he's using.

3) He says that now some people "are testing positive". However, he doesn't actually say what prompted the new tests. Is he just following these patients? What's concerning is that he said that were initially positive, then they tested "negative for weeks", then they tested positive. How many tests is he doing on a single person, and why? Is he doing his own research? This needs more background.

Also - he doesn't describe any of the symptoms that warranted re-testing. Is he just performing this on anyone with a cough? Are the symptoms as severe as before?

4) OH. Now I see. He bought a bunch of mass-marketed rapid test kits, and are doing it in his own office using the tentatively EU-approved Sofia kit. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC. No test kits have been FDA approved. Some of them are EU approved - there's a difference. Furthermore, even without false positive for Sofia test kits, a kit is only as good as your personnel. How many times did he repeat the test? Is the same person performing all the tests in his office? Is it a nurse performing the test, or a CLS? Is someone performing positive and negative controls alongside each test kit? Does he have a laboratory? Is it sterile? How often is the operator changing PPE? Is it performed in a hood? Is it just on the counter? What?

5) Can there be re-infection? Maybe. The jury is still out on that one. Most scientists don't think so. If there was a possibility for mass re-infection, then you wouldn't see the kind of numbers you're seeing in NY and in already exposed areas. It's just incongruent data. You might have an outlier, but then you have to evaluate each outlier on a case by case example.

Again, I hear that doctors don't want people flinging off their masks and kissing hordes of strangers in public. But the constant insistence on flooding the public with terrifying tales of doom has not been effective for long-term public health strategy. It creates anxiety, fear, anger, resentment, chaos, and eventual non-compliance.

I agree with this, and I will add one thing:

Dr. Ditchek extrapolated from the fact that he had two positive re-infections that that will cause a second wave. This is PURE speculation and is not based on scientific fact at all.

Two people is a very small number to be extrapolating any data at all from, and from a scientific viewpoint it's laughable.

Maybe the tests were faulty. Maybe some people can get it twice. (I know a few people who got the chicken pox twice). Does that translate that EVERYONE can get it twice? Maybe. Probably not. We just don't know.

I think this video was being way too alarmist.

cookiewriter

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 6:33 pm

I’d like to know why this dr ditchek somehow knows something that not one other dr knows. Nowhere on the news. Nowhere in scientific data. He must get off on scaring people to death. He single handedly is causing so much anxiety depression loss of parnassa and mental health issues. I hope he realizes that one day.
Back to the negative positive people. Every tester swabs differently. If you go down deep in anyone post Covid you’ll probably still find Covid cells. Even weeks or months later. The negative test missed those cells obviously. And all data is showing that people have virus cells months later but are not contagious or symptomatic.
And most important
Hashem IS IN CHARGE.
And also if you could get Covid twice the entire mountains would be sick right now. As there is no social distancing up here (yay!!!!!!)

Mommyg8

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 7:45 pm

amother [ Peach ] wrote:

Oh no!!!! I’m scheduled to go to the mikvah in deal on motzei Shabbos. Ok I’m cancelling my appointment.
Where can I go in Lakewood where I won’t meet anyone I know? I’m in my low 20’s, regular Flatbush type, and everyone I know who’s married lives in lkwd. Any ideas for me? Send me to the most dilapidated one, if that’s what it takes!

You rarely meet anyone at all in a Lakewood mikvah (except the mikvah lady). You call for an appointment and when you get there each person is buzzed in separately. Any of the main mikvos should be ok.

amother

Navy

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 7:59 pm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/e......html

However, according to guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "detection of viral RNA does not necessarily mean that infectious virus is present." In other words, the test may be picking up a piece of the viral RNA that's been left behind, rather than a fully intact, infectious virus particle.

A second positive test after a negative result may mean the virus is simply taking its time leaving the body, doctors said, and is no longer able to infect others. "It's possible that people could shed remnants of the virus for some period of time. That doesn't mean anything is wrong with them or that they are contagious," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.

amother

Firebrick

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 8:01 pm

I am not a scientist nor a Dr but I do see the facts on the ground

BOro park, Williamsburg, crown heights and other congested frum communitiies have NOT been properly social distancing since shavous- or maybe even before. Shavous definitely was one big social scene- pple eating out, traveling etc. There has not been a spike in infections or any infections at all in those communities until recently. Gedaliah society, that monitors the Covid happening in crown heights did not have a single case until a few days ago when someone traveled from Florida and returned with the virus

This leads me to think that - it is a a different- less deadly strain - because all symptoms seems to be very mild , and this is not the exact same virus we saw after Purim - as proof in the number of infections are spiking in some areas but deaths are not at all.

Maybe pple who had antibodies are getting reinfected with this milder strain because they didn’t develope antibodies for the milder strain.

There may be some unknown component as well- but I would not go around predicting doomsday .

The height of infections in the frum NY area was Primarily between Purim and pesach and minimal after pesach. Dr ditchek has been posting “doomsday” videos well after that

amother

Azure

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 8:09 pm

amother [ Firebrick ] wrote:

Symptoms are milder now because the vast majority of indivudals who are getting sick are doing so because of their own behavior (clubs, indoor esting, bars etc) so they are likely young and healthy. People in NYC area are not getting it because there is clearly some sort of herd immunity BH but we need to still follow normal gudielines like masks indoors etc.

amother

Firebrick

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 8:30 pm

Herd immunity is achieved when 70 percent of population is infected- which is not the case

In Frum NYC - even the “elderly” and “vulnerable” were not practicing social distancing

Whereas before Purim YOUNG and HEALTHY pple landed in ICU and even died from it.

Just pointing out that is NOT black and white and there is SO much unknown that I don’t think there is any productive purpose in predicting doomsday and fearmongering.

There definitely is an emotional And mental toll this pandemic is taking and we have to consider all factors!

When this is all over, therapists will be the ones raking it in

amother

Coffee

Thu, Jul 09 2020, 9:10 pm

cookiewriter wrote:

I’d like to know why this dr doomshtein er I mean ditchek somehow knows something that not one other dr knows. Nowhere on the news. Nowhere in scientific data. He must get off on scaring people to death. He single handedly is causing so much anxiety depression loss of parnassa and mental health issues. I hope he realizes that one day.
Back to the negative positive people. Every tester swabs differently. If you go down deep in anyone post Covid you’ll probably still find Covid cells. Even weeks or months later. The negative test missed those cells obviously. And all data is showing that people have virus cells months later but are not contagious or symptomatic.
And most important
Hashem IS IN CHARGE.
And also if you could get Covid twice the entire mountains would be sick right now. As there is no social distancing up here (yay!!!!!!)

I rarely post anonymously but I have to do this for obvious reasons...
A close relative of mine is in a bungalow colony, where the owner lives in a different state -- a state that's a major hotspot now. They were debating whether they should come or not, and in the end decided to come. They didn't really quarantine, they came directly to the bungalow colony. (I don't think the NY quarantine rule was in yet.)
Well it's now 2 weeks since they got here, and.... the owner and his wife are both sick in bed. They did not get tested, and it might be something entirely else. But if it chas v'shalom covid.... well, I guess it'll be an interesting and terrible 'experiment' to see if others in the bungalow colony get it too. They are all from Brooklyn and almost all of them had it in March and/or have antibodies. So we may soon have our answer to whether people can get it a 2nd time and whether immunity wanes. Thankfully there are no elderly or immunocompromised ppl in the colony and the couple is not stepping foot out of their bungalow, so the chance of spreading is low but, well, it they may have been contagious before they had symptoms....
And here's your "other" answer, which is that if there's a 2nd wave in NY, it's coming from other states or countries (such as Israel, from where US citizens are allowed to fly in). Or just from the airport or airplane.

amother

Black

Fri, Jul 10 2020, 12:46 am

amother [ Firebrick ] wrote:

Only no one will be able to afford them because the economy won’t be that great

asmileaday

Fri, Jul 10 2020, 5:10 am

amother [ Brunette ] wrote:

An extremely active, fit, healthy 30 year old in my parents community had it pesach time. He's a young father and now has it again ( a very mild case both times), only this time it caused a brain bleed and he had to undergo emergency surgery yesterday. The next ten days are critical for him.

Covid itself isn't scary. Its the blood clots and complications that come with it. Now they're saying it can cause brain damage as well. His story was a real wake up call for me.

I don't think anyone is denying that this disease can be serious for some people. Critically so.
I know.
I have at least 5 relatives that passed away in March/ April (I didn't do a full count, many others were critically hospitalized).
Yes many people are still getting sick. But the mortality rate isn't nearly the same it was in March.

At some point we gear up and say life must go on. We live daily with all kinds of scary illnesses circulating. Many of them even more critical than Covid. Go check out the hospitals in non Covid times. It's unfortunately still packed with patients.

There is no point in scaring people into a paralyzing fear.

asmileaday

Fri, Jul 10 2020, 5:13 am

amother [ Bronze ] wrote:

Thanks for taking this apart so detailed. Well said.

amother

Copper

Fri, Jul 10 2020, 7:22 am

amother [ Coffee ] wrote:

PLease don't forget to come back amother coffee. In a week and in two weeks. You obviously know people in this place. Let us know what happened.