Is it fair to say the virus is losing strength?

LakewoodMother

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 10:46 am

Mothers wrote:

Just want to point out that this is not the 2nd wave. This is still the 1st wave. Unfortunately, the 2nd wave is expected towards the end of this (calendar year) and it is expected to get much worse. Everyone please continue (or start) davening and hishtadlus.

In NY and NJ, the frum communities are experiencing a second wave.

amother

Crimson

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 10:46 am

banana123 wrote:

And the more people gather, the greater the chance that this will mutate and become much more dangerous. Mad

You're just so unrealistic!! Life has to go on with or without coronavirus period. All of you people that say we have to close schools/stores and lock down till the virus disappeares (if ever), I wonder what you're thinking! Kids and adults can't live indoors for that long.

GetReal

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 10:54 am

amother [ Crimson ] wrote:

There’s something in between lockdown and huge gatherings of hundreds of people.

amother

Saddlebrown

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 11:12 am

amother [ Crimson ] wrote:

Maybe if people would stop extra large non essential social gatherings (think big weddings etc) then our schools can remain open and we can have a Semblance of normal life...a little bit of seichel can go a long way in this environment

thanks

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 11:27 am

amother [ Crimson ] wrote:

And one day we may look back and say if only we had shut down for purim, if only we would have been closed for a few more months, if only...
It's really hard, and depending on circumstances it can be extremely challenging to be shut in, but maybe that's what needs to happen.

Last edited by thanks on Tue, Oct 06 2020, 1:00 am; edited 1 time in total

amother

Saddlebrown

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 11:30 am

thanks wrote:

And one day we may look back and say if only we had shut down for purim, if only we would have been closed for a few more months, if only...
It's really hard, and depending on circumstances it can be really challenging, but maybe that's what needs to happen.

Plenty of people said on purim that the communities that are not shutting down will pay a price and you know what ...the ones that took a whole week to close did pay.

Mommyg8

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 11:47 am

sneakermom wrote:

I hear what you’re saying. But honestly many if not most older people In Brooklyn who were staying indoors came out by mid summer. And are still out and about. And the virus has not killed them. If they contract it most are able to fight it without hospitalization.

I dont know the exact definition of "most", but none of the older people I know who live in Brooklyn came out yet.

And in Lakewood two people were just niftar, and there were many more who ended up in the hospital (I know a few by name). Thankfully, they have a much better handle on how to treat this virus which is making a big difference. For example, two people I know were niftar from heart attacks, and now they know to look out for that before it happens....

Reality

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 12:21 pm

zaq wrote:

The virus is not weaker. The first wave felled the weaker sectors of society—the aged and infirm. The strong survived, the weak didn’t. Now that that most of the weak have been killed off, most victims are younger and stronger and better able to fight. . Also, some people have had mild incremental exposures and have developed some measure of antibodies, so they, too, are better able to fight. If all the people who were staying indoors all this time were to leave home, they would be felled in exactly the same way.

What an over the top statement.

There are plenty of aged and infirm people still living and breathing in NY, thank you very much!

Even the nursing homes are still filled with patients. Almost all the patients got Covid. And most of them got a mild case. Too many died but that doesn't mean they ALL died. It doesn't mean NY's policies were correct. In my opinion, those policies were evil!

But to paint a broad brush and say all the weak have died is absurd!

We don't understand this virus yet. Why does a 75 year old man in ill health who lives in a nursing home get a mild case and an apparently healthy 45 year old man with a well managed health condition die?

invisiblecircus

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 2:50 pm

The virus is not losing strength.

I'm in Italy and back in February, the only people getting tested were the people presenting at hospitals with symptoms, and those were the cases recorded in the official statistics. Obviously people affected severely enough to seek hospital treatment (whether or not they were admitted) were already in a bad condition and were more likely to die than the people with symptoms who were told to stay home (and who were not tested and therefore not recorded in the official statistics.)

Now, many more tests are being done. Many schools tested all students and staff before re-opening and other places are also doing tests. These tests are done just as a precaution but have shown up some asymptomatic cases which would not have been recorded when the virus first came to prevalence.

In short, the wider availability of tests has meant that a much higher percentage of asymptomatic and mild cases are being recorded, so the death rate appears to be lower.

amother

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 3:13 pm

invisiblecircus wrote:

Ok, let's put the cases aside and only talk about the amount of people in Italy dying from the virus.

The charts and data are clear. In late March and early April there were usually between 700 and 800 people dying per day. On March 27th there were 921 recorded deaths in Italy, their highest total. Since July 3rd there hasn't been a single day above 30 deaths. That means deaths are down in Italy around 95%. I understand that many of the old people died and people are talking precautions. But 95%? Is it possible the reason the death totals went from 70 daily to 20 daily is because the virus is less potent/more treatable? It seems nobody wants to say that perhaps things are actually a little better.

amother

Salmon

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 11:37 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Here’s a novel idea.. the virus isn’t prevalent there currently, as it is in NY?

amother

Cyan

Tue, Oct 06 2020, 2:09 am

Not getting into the politics of lock down but no, I haven’t heard anyone with any medical training say it’s a lighter strain. And I know multiple people who are hospitalized right now. However, the hospitals are better equipped, doctors know more and people are more empowered. I also want to add that dare I say, there was an out of town community that had very minimal deaths the first wave, despite many people being in critical condition. I do believe their hospital is better than Maimonides and some other local Tri-state hospitals. Doctors don’t know much about the virus but there is definitely more knowledge than in March. They barely knew if Advil was or wasn’t advisable, if oxygen levels needed to be taken, or when someone needed to be ventilated!