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amother
Oleander


 

Post Sun, Jun 20 2021, 10:05 pm
amother [ DarkCyan ] wrote:
It very much depends on the neighborhood. Coventry and raintree tend to go back down. But many other areas only go up.


I think areas that are bidding 100k-200k over asking price will crash eventually.
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amother
OP


 

Post Sun, Jun 20 2021, 10:19 pm
amother [ Daphne ] wrote:
Op I really feel for you

I don't know if this was your expectation but I feel like this needs to be said. I'm in Lakewood a while and I hear Brooklyn people say all the time oh for 450 we would have a mansion with a pool in toms river ... Or Jackson... And I feel like shouting.

No you wouldn't. Not anywhere semi established will you find a 3000 and up sq house (with a pool to boot) for under 6 or probably 650 unless your willing to be no where near a minyan. Yes people might move and the area may become established or you will forever be in no man's land. Even 650 is very low in a decent market for a really established area.

The market is crazy this minute but brooklynites tend to have unrealistic expectations to begin with.

Forgive me op if none of this applied to you


I’m not from Brooklyn, but I would disagree
my husband knows people who paid 400-500-600 for these established neighborhoods. The price did go up as it got more Jewish but it was no where near no mans land:

Hampshire hills
Walden woods
Grande woodlands
Even tallymawr (650 with a pool, it was already established)

I’m not looking in all of these places, but just as a data point
We are not looking to move out and start a community, we want established…a year ago we would have been able to do it but now…no
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amother
Daphne


 

Post Sun, Jun 20 2021, 10:47 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
I’m not from Brooklyn, but I would disagree
my husband knows people who paid 400-500-600 for these established neighborhoods. The price did go up as it got more Jewish but it was no where near no mans land:

Hampshire hills
Walden woods
Grande woodlands
Even tallymawr (650 with a pool, it was already established)

I’m not looking in all of these places, but just as a data point
We are not looking to move out and start a community, we want established…a year ago we would have been able to do it but now…no


Hampshire hills shot up very quickly partly because it's peak is coinciding with the post covid market craziness.

Grand woodlands houses tend to be smaller (not what people are talking about when they glow about "jersey mansions")

Tallymawr was at minimum 650 already 4 hears ago when it was super established. The ones who got in under 6 were in the first two years of it being a "thing"

Walden woods followed a similar trajectory.

We looked at all these neighborhoods in our house hunt, point being that the minute something becomes popular 650 seems to be the minimum.

Granted 650 is a much less than 800/900 but the mansions for 450 is unrealistic for anywhere near established minyanim for a certain sized house and property. Just my little rant for everyone from out of lakewood who thinks this.

Again sorry op, I realize none of this may actually be applicable
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amother
Lily


 

Post Sun, Jun 20 2021, 10:48 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
I’m not from Brooklyn, but I would disagree
my husband knows people who paid 400-500-600 for these established neighborhoods. The price did go up as it got more Jewish but it was no where near no mans land:

Hampshire hills
Walden woods
Grande woodlands
Even tallymawr (650 with a pool, it was already established)

I’m not looking in all of these places, but just as a data point
We are not looking to move out and start a community, we want established…a year ago we would have been able to do it but now…no


They are not the mansions though. They are beautiful homes but not mansions. The mansions were selling for 8 and now for 1 mil.
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Amarante




 
 
    
 

Post Sun, Jun 20 2021, 11:04 pm
Do housing prices really ever go down?

The bust in 2008 had a lot to do with people financing homes with mortgages they couldn't afford with little down payments required. So the house of cards tumbled because people had assumed they would be able to keep refinancing and then the balloon payments came due.

I am over simplifying obviously but I don't think those kinds of market conditions for housing exist now. As far as I know people need to qualify for mortgage with incomes that justify the size of the mortgage. And down payments are now required so that it isn't an attractive option for people to just walk away when the value of their home is substantially less than the mortgage. That was what was happening in the housing market in the areas where it seriously crashed like Vegas and Florida and parts of Southern California. Even in Los Angeles, a market I am more familiar with, prices didn't really crash that badly in the desirable areas of the county - they only stayed the same for awhile before escalating again.
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amother
Bluebonnet


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 7:54 am
amother [ Daphne ] wrote:
[b]Hampshire hills shot up very quickly partly because it's peak is coinciding with the post covid market craziness.[/b]

Grand woodlands houses tend to be smaller (not what people are talking about when they glow about "jersey mansions")

Tallymawr was at minimum 650 already 4 hears ago when it was super established. The ones who got in under 6 were in the first two years of it being a "thing"

Walden woods followed a similar trajectory.

We looked at all these neighborhoods in our house hunt, point being that the minute something becomes popular 650 seems to be the minimum.

Granted 650 is a much less than 800/900 but the mansions for 450 is unrealistic for anywhere near established minyanim for a certain sized house and property. Just my little rant for everyone from out of lakewood who thinks this.

Again sorry op, I realize none of this may actually be applicable



It shot up when it got a reputable Rav.
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amother
Lilac


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 10:49 am
My neighbor is trying to buy in Manchester she told me that a home that was 450 went for 520

It is all over the country especially New Jersey the old saying "Drive until you can afford" Does not seam to work any more.
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amother
DarkCyan


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:04 am
amother [ Lilac ] wrote:
My neighbor is trying to buy in Manchester she told me that a home that was 450 went for 520

It is all over the country especially New Jersey the old saying "Drive until you can afford" Does not seam to work any more.
Yes people are buying a few blocks away from the established neighborhood in Manchester and apparently were matzliach.
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amother
DarkCyan


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:06 am
Amarante wrote:
Do housing prices really ever go down?

The bust in 2008 had a lot to do with people financing homes with mortgages they couldn't afford with little down payments required. So the house of cards tumbled because people had assumed they would be able to keep refinancing and then the balloon payments came due.

I am over simplifying obviously but I don't think those kinds of market conditions for housing exist now. As far as I know people need to qualify for mortgage with incomes that justify the size of the mortgage. And down payments are now required so that it isn't an attractive option for people to just walk away when the value of their home is substantially less than the mortgage. That was what was happening in the housing market in the areas where it seriously crashed like Vegas and Florida and parts of Southern California. Even in Los Angeles, a market I am more familiar with, prices didn't really crash that badly in the desirable areas of the county - they only stayed the same for awhile before escalating again.
The one thing I think feeding this bubble is that there are no foreclosures due to COVID. There also aren’t any rental evictions. What will happen when the moratoriums are lifted? That’s what I wonder. Will all these homes go into foreclosure at once? That ought to drive prices down.
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#BestBubby




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:26 am
The reason housing and rental prices have jumped is that the government is printing
trillions of dollars - which DEVALUES the dollar and causes inflation.

OP, if you can find any house you can afford - GRAB IT!

Because if you don't buy now - housing will be much much much higher a year for now.

And interest rates (mortgages) will be much much higher as well!

Unfortunately, those who say to wait prices will go down - I believe are wrong.

Prices will go much higher.
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cupcake123




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:46 am
amother [ DarkCyan ] wrote:
The one thing I think feeding this bubble is that there are no foreclosures due to COVID. There also aren’t any rental evictions. What will happen when the moratoriums are lifted? That’s what I wonder. Will all these homes go into foreclosure at once? That ought to drive prices down.


Yes! My husband keeps saying this
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amother
OP


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:51 am
It sounds like 50% of people think waiting is a good idea and 50% think to take something now
This is why real estate is a good but risky investment?
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amother
Lily


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:55 am
amother [ OP ] wrote:
It sounds like 50% of people think waiting is a good idea and 50% think to take something now
This is why real estate is a good but risky investment?


Yes indeed Smile
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GLUE




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 6:38 pm
#BestBubby wrote:
The reason housing and rental prices have jumped is that the government is printing
trillions of dollars - which DEVALUES the dollar and causes inflation.

OP, if you can find any house you can afford - GRAB IT!

Because if you don't buy now - housing will be much much much higher a year for now.

And interest rates (mortgages) will be much much higher as well!

Unfortunately, those who say to wait prices will go down - I believe are wrong.

Prices will go much higher.


You also forgot about the law of supply and demand

The amount of houses that are available is not enough to meat the demand there has not bean enough building new houses that people want to live in-that is why there is a shortage
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amother
Carnation


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 7:10 pm
I think you should buy a small house just to be able to actually own a house. Look into lakeview- aspen court and Coventry ... you might still be able to get something small I raintree. When the market changes you will have an easier time to move to a larger home if you choose. I really feel that you should buy something else even if it’s not the home of your dreams.
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amother
Wallflower


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 8:33 pm
amother [ Carnation ] wrote:
I think you should buy a small house just to be able to actually own a house. Look into lakeview- aspen court and Coventry ... you might still be able to get something small I raintree. When the market changes you will have an easier time to move to a larger home if you choose. I really feel that you should buy something else even if it’s not the home of your dreams.



Warning:
I live in Coventry there are literal bidding wars.
One of the houses next to mine was put for sale. For a week straight I saw SO many ppl coming and going and looking at it. I believe they got 30k above asking.
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amother
SandyBrown


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 8:40 pm
amother [ Carnation ] wrote:
I think you should buy a small house just to be able to actually own a house. Look into lakeview- aspen court and Coventry ... you might still be able to get something small I raintree. When the market changes you will have an easier time to move to a larger home if you choose. I really feel that you should buy something else even if it’s not the home of your dreams.

I sold my home in one of the developments mentioned above 6 months ago at a high price. I could easily gotten another 60k if I would have sold today. My current home was purchased for 470k 6 months ago. Can prob get 570k now
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amother
Camellia


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 9:05 pm
amother [ Wallflower ] wrote:
Warning:
I live in Coventry there are literal bidding wars.
One of the houses next to mine was put for sale. For a week straight I saw SO many ppl coming and going and looking at it. I believe they got 30k above asking.


Interesting. I own in Coventry and bought for about $205k which was average then. Zillow shows the worth at about $235k now. Is that the range I would get for the standard 3 bedroom (2 and a den) house? You think it’s worth selling now because prices will eventually go back to the low 200s? I wasn’t planning on moving for another couple years.
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amother
Wallflower


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 9:08 pm
amother [ Camellia ] wrote:
Interesting. I own in Coventry and bought for about $205k which was average then. Zillow shows the worth at about $235k now. Is that the range I would get for the standard 3 bedroom (2 and a den) house? You think it’s worth selling now because prices will eventually go back to the low 200s? I wasn’t planning on moving for another couple years.


Depending how upgraded your house is I would say closer to 250,000.
The problem with selling is- where would you live!
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amother
Camellia


 

Post Mon, Jun 21 2021, 9:13 pm
amother [ Wallflower ] wrote:
Depending how upgraded your house is I would say closer to 250,000.
The problem with selling is- where would you live!


Wow, that’s crazy. We did put in a new kitchen and floor. It’s tempting to sell and put away the profit for a bigger down payment but like you said where would we live. I’m happy where I am for now and don’t have an eye on houses anywhere yet. I do though feel that nagging thought that if I don’t buy soon, the houses will just go up to a million....
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