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-> Children's Health
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amother
Firebrick
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 Thu, Nov 15 2018, 6:42 am
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I'm having a hard time finding consistant information online. Can someone help me out and give me the numbers in terms of comparing how many measles cases there were before the vaccine, and what were the consequences of the measles, vs. what are the consequences of getting the vaccine. I want to better understand from a statistical standpoint what the debate is all about.
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amother
Pewter
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Thu, Nov 15 2018, 7:26 am
Some numbers for you:
90% of people will get measles if they are exposed and not otherwise immune.
Statistically in a first-world country 2 out of 10,000 otherwise healthy people die from measles complications.
That means that if 100,000 non-immune people are exposed to measles, we can expect 90,000 of them to catch the measles, and statistically expect 18 deaths.
Vitamin A supplements reduce the number of deaths from measles by 50%. (Not clear if the 2 out of 10,000 rate includes this or not.)
Obviously the rates will be much higher in the immunocompromised population, and in third-world countries.
The frequency of measles drastically dropped after the vaccine was introduced, and obviously deaths from measles dropped as well.
Number of reported cases of measles in the US before the vaccine was around 500,000 per year. Since everyone got measles, the number of actual annual cases was likely closer to 4 million (similar to the number of cases of chicken pox). There were about 400 measles deaths per year, meaning about 1 in 10,000 cases resulted in death.
For comparison, chicken pox caused about 100 deaths per year out of 4 million cases.
Most MMR reactions are not reported, in part because doctors are resistant to attributing damage to vaccines (perhaps in fear that vaccination rates will drop).
People who do not vaccinate are not only taking the MMR into account.
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southernbubby
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Thu, Nov 15 2018, 7:34 am
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Probably a lot of measles cases go unreported if the person doesn't see a doctor.
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southernbubby
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Thu, Nov 15 2018, 7:35 am
Delete
Last edited by southernbubby on Thu, Nov 15 2018, 7:36 am; edited 1 time in total
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southernbubby
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Thu, Nov 15 2018, 7:36 am
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pnina
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 1:12 am
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If measles can get under reported due to the lack of seeing a doctor, how serious could it have been? Hey, Isn't measles a life threatening disease? something's not adding up...
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imasoftov
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 3:06 am
| pnina wrote: | | If measles can get under reported due to the lack of seeing a doctor, how serious could it have been? Hey, Isn't measles a life threatening disease? something's not adding up... |
Not every measles patient has complications, but if they do, they can be very severe ones including death.
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amother
Pewter
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 4:58 am
Some numbers for comparison and to put things into perspective:
1) Measles historically: 4 million cases per year, 400 deaths per year (mostly children)
So: 1 million cases = 100 deaths
2) Measles today: (In 1st world country; France outbreak '08-'13) 36,000 cases*, 10 deaths (7/10 were immunodeficient, 8/10 were over age 14). 11% of reported cases had complications.
So: 1 million cases = 280 deaths
3) Chicken Pox: Historically, 4 million cases per year, 100 deaths per year.
So: 1 million cases = 25 deaths
4) Flu: Estimated 15 to 65 million cases per year (5% - 20% of USA), estimated 3,000 to 49,000 deaths per year (as per CDC)
So: 1 million cases = 200-750 deaths
*22,000 were reported, but underreporting estimated at over 50%
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amother
Blue
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 6:07 am
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Just a reminder that it's not all or nothing. Measles can also cause blindness and brain damage.
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amother
Pewter
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 6:36 am
| amother wrote: | | Just a reminder that it's not all or nothing. Measles can also cause blindness and brain damage. |
In a well-nourished person (I.e. not in a third-world country), measles very rarely causes blindness. (source)
Encephalomyelitis is the main cause of brain damage related to measles. In the France outbreak, there were 27 neurological complications (I.e. about 1/1000 reported cases), most of which were due to ADEM, not to the more severe PIE (based on this article) and therefore most of whom could be expected to have a complete recovery (as per WebMD article on ADEM).
SSPE (subacute sclerosing panencephalitis) is another concern, causing delayed measles-related death, but in the USA it seems to be exceedingly rare - 1 out of 8.5 million cases. (source)
In short: Measles, while far from being benign, very rarely causes long-term complications in a first-world country.
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southernbubby
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 10:30 am
| pnina wrote: | | If measles can get under reported due to the lack of seeing a doctor, how serious could it have been? Hey, Isn't measles a life threatening disease? something's not adding up... |
I got my first (and only) measles shot at age 12 or 13 which meant that my generation, and on back, viewed measles as one of those rites of passage of childhood along with chicken pox, mumps, rubella, and whooping cough. Because it was so common and expected, I am not sure how many people then or now, even called the doctor. Those illnesses had to run their course and there was little or nothing that a doctor could do. Any parent today can give vitamin A to a child who is suffering from measles so why would they take the child to the doctor or bother to notify the health department?
Furthermore, my parents' generation greatly feared polio because some cases caused permanent paralysis and my grandparents generation greatly feared diphtheria which caused loads of deaths.
I am not sure why more people don't take the flu seriously because last year it killed tens of thousands of adults and 183 children.
I personally think that the vaccine load should either be tailored to individual populations or shaved down to prevent overload. Most people today get vaccinated for things that they probably would never encounter and most likely, even when those diseases were routine, I wonder how many children suffered from all of them.
Our immune systems are wired to form immunity to numerous pathogens but I wonder if we are doing ourselves or our children a favor by injecting them with everything out there all at once, even things that they are highly unlikely to ever encounter. I also wonder if a decade or more from now, the medical community will also question the need for so many vaccines or so many in such a short period of time.
And I say that as someone who uses vaccines.
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pnina
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 10:34 am
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Totally agree. AM not against vaccines per se, just feel for my family being that my kids are sensitive, it is not for them, not right now.
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octopus
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 10:39 am
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measles is dangerous for pregnant women.
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Maybe
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 10:42 am
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Even if true , if all young kids would have it , all moms would be immune.
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octopus
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 10:46 am
| Maybe wrote: | | Even if true , if all young kids would have it , all moms would be immune. |
but its not the world we live in- so your point?
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amother
Oak
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 10:57 am
| Maybe wrote: | | Even if true , if all young kids would have it , all moms would be immune. |
That may be true. There might be little to no risk for pregnant women. BUT there would be a smaller number of pregnant women, given that some girls would not make it to adulthood. Because measles.
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amother
Pewter
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 11:41 am
| octopus wrote: | | measles is dangerous for pregnant women. |
Granted, that is part of the disadvantage of pushing the average age of measles up, where it is more likely to cause complications. Measles is definitely more severe in pregnant women.
Still looking for hard data, but even the fear mongering What to Expect seems to downplay measles as a concern during pregnancy, implying that those risks are small too. ("May possibly be") source
Please note that if you think you MIGHT have been exposed, you can and should take immune globulin which will probably prevent you from getting measles even if you were otherwise not immune. It is also safe during pregnancy, while the vaccine is not.
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southernbubby
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 11:51 am
| amother wrote: | | That may be true. There might be little to no risk for pregnant women. BUT there would be a smaller number of pregnant women, given that some girls would not make it to adulthood. Because measles. |
It didn't kill that many girls (or boys). It isn't rabies or ebola.
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southernbubby
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Mon, Nov 19 2018, 12:03 pm
https://www.sciencemag.org/new.....icans
This article describes why certain European diseases wiped out Native populations. Measles is in that category. In groups that were exposed to certain diseases in animals, they had a greater immunity to it and measles was usually not fatal in the European settlers but was a huge tragedy for the Native Americans.
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