Do any segulos work statistically?

mirror

Tue, May 21 2019, 4:56 pm

urban gypsy wrote:

That doesn't sound right to me. If you do bad things that cause others to speak LH about you, then do you get good things you don't deserve? Does that good cancel out your bad?

Since when is it that only people who do bad things get spoken about? Often it's due to things that are beyond a person's control like in a divorce. No one actually knows what went on but lots of people jump to conclusions. I recently overheard someone speaking Loshon Hora about a close friend of mine. I didn't have her permission to reveal certain information which would put her in a different light so all I could do was change the topic. Everyone thinks they know everything about everyone. Putting yourself in someone else's shoes doesn't do the job because you really don't know what actually happened.

If you only speak Loshon Hora about people who do bad things then you are mountains above this generation.

shoshanim999

Tue, May 21 2019, 6:25 pm

mirror wrote:

Some people speak Loshon Hora and don't realize it. It's sad because Hashem will cause them to lose the good things they have when they speak Loshon Hora. Loshon Hora has the spiritual power of making bad things happen to good people no matter how hard they daven. If someone speaks Loshon Hora about you then you get good things even if you don't deserve them.

You seem to have some serious inside information as to how hashem runs his world.

Mommyg8

Tue, May 21 2019, 6:36 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

[u]

How is klal yisroel above statistics? Very often we do our hishtadlus based on statistics. If someone is c'vs sick, we try to find the "best" doctor even if it means traveling. Who's the best doctor? The one who has the best statistics. There are many more similar examples. Frum, gd fearing people very much follow statistics whether it's looking for the right doctor, school, or car mechanic.

This is actually not true. When a close friend had cancer, the doctor told her that he's not giving her statistics because statistics are meaningless to the individual. Even if the cure rate is 1%, if you are cured then the cure rate is 100% for you. I know people who got rare illnesses ' perhaps a .001% chance of getting that illness, and they got it. For that person, the chance of getting that illness was 100%.

amother

Tue, May 21 2019, 8:48 pm

Mommyg8 wrote:

Your giving examples of meaningless after the fact statistics. My point was that frum people, including rabbanim, use statistics to make decisions all the time and whenever possible. We don't say that stats don't matter. It can be for something important such as treatment for a serious illness. One type of treatment has a 40% success rate and the other a 70% success rate. Nobody would say that hashem can make anything happen and go with the 40% treatment. Or it can be something as mundane as taking an umbrella when the weather man says there's a chance of rain.

Mommyg8

Tue, May 21 2019, 10:24 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

No I'm not. This conversation - between my friend and her oncologist - happened when they were discussing different treatment options. The oncologist actually DID say that stats don't matter - the only thing that matters is how SHE, my friend, will respond to a specific treatment. If it works, it's 100%, if it doesn't work, it's 0%. So yes, this oncologist might indeed suggest that she go with the treatment that has a 40% success rate rather than the 70%.

amother

Smokey

Tue, May 21 2019, 11:15 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

How is the maaser segulah a proof? I'd say it's a big question. Don't you agree that we see many people who give maaser and are poor? Next time someone posts here worried about money let's just tell them to give maaser since hashem will make them rich by doing so.

I'm just going to say this - my father quoted me that posuk often when I was growing up. He started off in kollel, he has no degree etc. He decided to always give a choimesh (1/5). He told me specifically- it's guaranteed. Guess what the end of the story is....

Why don't you try it? And see if it works. Yes, my father started off poor.

amother

Azure

Wed, May 22 2019, 1:50 am

I didn't read thru the entire thread so forgive me if Im off base here

One segulah I have proven time and time again that works is toyveling after a pregnant lady to get pregnant.
Ive done it twice and I offered the segulah to a friend who was desperately ttc and it worked for her too.
Some segulahs are shtissum and some actually work (if you believe in them Laugh

)

imasoftov

Wed, May 22 2019, 4:24 am

amother [ Mauve ] wrote:

Segulos and statistical are an oxymoron. If you believe in segulos then there are no statistics.

I sometimes find words like בדוק ומנוסה (tested) about segulot which seems to me to indicate some sort of statistical thinking, But I've never seen details and I'm not sure that there even is a text that I haven't come across that explains how to do this testing.

There is a halacha that wearing an amulet outside a reshut hayachid is only allowed on Shabbat if the amulet is מומחה. In Modern Hebrew that means an expert (in medicine, a specialist) but here it's the amulet to which the term is applied so I suppose a better translation is effective. Effectiveness for this purpose is established by three cures (omitting details about whether it's an individual amulet that gets ruled effective or an amulet-writer whose amulets cure three people and so other amulets by the same person are considered effective ...) but there's nothing there like a larger sample size, a double-blind study or a control group. Actually I'd be interested to know

https://www.sefaria.org.il/Shu.....g2=en

It's possible that the rules for a tested segulah differ from an effective amulet. And maybe the question halacha answers in the above source is not "do amulets work (and if so, how can we tell which)?" but "when may people who believe in amulets wear them on the street on Shabbat?".

I looked up the history of blinded experiments and the first single-blind experiment recorded was performed in 1784 and the first double-blind in 1907 so I don't criticize earlier sources for not anticipating these developments (nor today's science for not being tomorrow's) but I wonder if we've turned previous generations' standards of proof into halachic(-ish) principles.

amother

Magenta

Wed, May 22 2019, 5:27 am

I am not a "segula" or ayin hara person at all
BUT I did have a very late state breech pregnancy and I was told that there is a serious segula to go with your husband and drink the water from Sataf.
we went and I felt the baby turning over in the cab on the way home.
it worked for a bunch of my friends.
annon because a lot of people know this story.

imasoftov

Wed, May 22 2019, 6:11 am

amother [ Magenta ] wrote:

I found a discussion of this one here and in light of my previous post in this thread noticed one of the posts, taken from another site (the link no longer works) saying that because sometimes the fetus turns around on its own, there is no statistical evidence for this segula.

I am however interested in, aside from statistics, how segulot are classified as serious (or not).

amother

Wed, May 22 2019, 6:54 am

Mommyg8 wrote:

Sounds like the oncologist should be sued for malpractice. If one course of treatment statistically works 70% of the time in a given set of circumstances, and a second course of treatment works 30% in the same set of circumstances. If an oncologist proceeds with the 30% treatment using the logic "if it works, it'll be 100% for you", that doctor would need his head examined and more importantly his medical license revoked. If this story is accurate, (im fairly certain you're mistaken) you should immediately call shuki berman at refuah resources and let them know not to recommend the so called doctor.

amother

Wed, May 22 2019, 8:04 am

amother [ Smokey ] wrote:

What's strange about this is that I am sure kollel and rebbaim families give maaser meticulously more than anyone else. These are the very families that are poor and are in need of tzedaka very often. So while you can look at your own personal story, when we look at the masses giving maaser, we seem to see a group that is not exactly wealthy.

elisheva25

Wed, May 22 2019, 8:49 am

amother [ Azure ] wrote:

)

Well guess what ? I did that and it didn’t work for me. And I know someone else that did it and it didn’t work for them .

PinkFridge

Wed, May 22 2019, 9:08 am

Mommyg8 wrote:

But in making decisions as to what treatment to choose, the statistics are important. Which are effective for what type of cancer, and what about the person's particular genetics as there's so much development in this area...whatever other details are important in making the decision.

So one can decide not to throw in the towel and keep trying, as far as statistics go, but when it comes to deciding what course of action to take, all this practical, "hishtadlusy" data is crucial.

ETA: I see OP said pretty much the same thing.

And re using the 30% treatment over the 70%, it depends. That statistic could be people who have a better chance, and maybe the 30 hadn't been tried on people who don't (I.e 1% chance), and it's less harsh so if this theoretical patient is going to try anything, maybe that would be better. Who knows.

amother

Violet

Wed, May 22 2019, 9:19 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

I think what Mommyg8 is trying to say is that the oncologist felt that this treatment would work better for her, even if the other one statistically works better for more people. He wasn't just going based on 40% vs. 70%, but which one he felt would work better for her. Not so crazy.

Last edited by amother on Mon, Jul 08 2019, 11:41 am; edited 1 time in total