Do any segulos work statistically?

miami85

Wed, May 22 2019, 10:55 am

smileforamile wrote:

I'm a segula cynic. You want a segula?

Focus more on your davening. Say extra tehillim. Be careful with how you treat other people. Work on emunah. Work on your marriage. Parent your kids with more patience.

(Come to think of it, these are good ideas for me. Very much in need of an overall yeshua.)

המבקש רחמים על חבירו והוא צריך לאותו דבר הוא נענה תחלה - I don't like the whole "daven for me and I'll daven for you" thing. It seems so selfish: I'm davening for you so I'll be answered first.

My husband is a cynic too. I want to share 2 more segula stories.
1)When I was in shidduchim, my brother took me to R' Scheinberg for a bracha and a "suggestion" of something to do to help my chances, and he said "Daven schacharis and mincha" and I was like, that's it? But I did improve my davening and while not right away, I did marry a few years later to a great guy. So yea, sometimes we do have to rely on the "meat and potatoes"

2)I was having the worst time, I wasn't doing well in my job--I had been fired 3 times in a row for "stupid" reasons, I was doing "freelance work" but I wasn't getting enough jobs to make enough parnassa, and every time it seemed like I would pick up another good job, one that I had would fold, I was in school and struggling, we wanted to have another baby and I was having issues with my cycles, I was probably depressed and really feeling hopeless. I had been davening, giving tzedaka, doing chessed with all the "free time" I had, and nothing was working. I felt hopeless and was confused as to what HaShem wanted from me. Then as if it was meant for me to see it, I found the ad for "removing ayin hara" and I told my husband, I know you are a cynic, but I'm desperate, nothing is working, and I feel like I have no other choice. He reluctantly let me go. I did it and since that time, I picked up more freelance cases until I was able to get a steady job, which also came at the right time, I began doing better in school and was being recognized for my hard work, I got pregnant less than a month later, and since then I haven't been fired from a job and have generally been considered "successful". Rebbetzin Miller said that there had been "big ayin haras" on me--I can't say that I understand WHO would want to put ayin haras on me, but since then my life has had a much more positive trajectory. Things aren't perfect, and I almost wish my husband WOULD go himself to see if removing his ayin haras would have an even more positive impact on our life, but not practical right now.

urban gypsy

Wed, May 22 2019, 11:22 am

amother [ Magenta ] wrote:

I am not a "segula" or ayin hara person at all
BUT I did have a very late state breech pregnancy and I was told that there is a serious segula to go with your husband and drink the water from Sataf.
we went and I felt the baby turning over in the cab on the way home.
it worked for a bunch of my friends.
annon because a lot of people know this story.

I'm sorry but I MUST interject here to tell you that long bumpy car rides are definitely a normal derech hateva way to get a baby to turn...

urban gypsy

Wed, May 22 2019, 11:29 am

miami85 wrote:

I did improve my davening and while not right away, I did marry a few years later to a great guy. So yea, sometimes we do have to rely on the "meat and potatoes"

This story makes me think that there needs to be some sort of statute of limitations on deciding whether or not a segula worked! YEARS later??? I would not call that a segula! Maaayyyybe a bracha from a tzaddik, not sure. But no way is that a segula!!!!

When I was young I did one of those "say this tefilla for 40 days and you will get married" type segulas. A couple of months later I got engaged. Yay it worked! But then the engagement got broken. Uh oh didn't work. But then I got engaged again! Yay it worked! But then I eventually got divorced. So did it work or not????

amother

Wed, May 22 2019, 11:33 am

miami85 wrote:

Individual personal stories don't demonstrate on any level that a segulah works. It would be like me claiming that I was having a tough time with something and started wearing green socks instead of my regular yellow socks, and things turned around. I attribute it to the socks. Every so often there is a thread here that supposedly gives info on how to influence specific genders during relations. Someone will inevitably say (and I don't think they're joking) dh and I did it such and such way and we had 4 boys. This proves that this type of relations helps for boys. Of course people respond by saying they do it the same way and have all girls.

PinkFridge

Wed, May 22 2019, 11:40 am

urban gypsy wrote:

There's no statute of limitations on tefilla.

imasoftov

Wed, May 22 2019, 12:27 pm

smileforamile wrote:

I think what Mommyg8 is trying to say is that the oncologist felt that this treatment would work better for her, even if the other one statistically works better for more people. He wasn't just going based on 40% vs. 70%, but which one he felt would work better for her. Not so crazy.

I wonder if in this case it might be better for the oncologist to say something like, while in general treatment A succeeds more often than B, here are the reasons why (based in my experience, information in the literature, etc.) treatment B is preferable in this case.

Mommyg8

Wed, May 22 2019, 6:52 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Sounds like the oncologist should be sued for malpractice. If one course of treatment statistically works 70% of the time in a given set of circumstances, and a second course of treatment works 30% in the same set of circumstances. If an oncologist proceeds with the 30% treatment using the logic "if it works, it'll be 100% for you", that doctor would need his head examined and more importantly his medical license revoked. If this story is accurate, (im fairly certain you're mistaken) you should immediately call shuki berman at refuah resources and let them know not to recommend the so called doctor.

This was a top oncologist so I'm pretty sure she knew what she was doing. Maybe there was something about the 30% chance treatment that made her think would work for this particular friend. These are not the actual real numbers by the way, you understand that.

In any case, I am litvish and we don't believe in segulos. I heard Rabbi Reisman say that he doesn't believe in segulos, so I have what to rely on Smile

Mommyg8

Wed, May 22 2019, 6:54 pm

smileforamile wrote:

Sorry I'm going in order. Thanks, smile, for explaining it more clearly than I did!

This happened a long time ago so maybe I'm repeating the story a little differently than it actually happened. My guess is that different cancers require different treatments, so just because treatment X worked 60% of the time, it might not be the right kind of treatment for that cancer.

Also, I think the point was that she was being hopeful because the prognosis might not have been 100%, so what she was basically saying is that statistics don't matter - even if there's a 1% chance that the person would be cured, it doesn't matter, because each case is individual, so statistics are meaningless to the individual. My field is not statistics, I think I'm going to ask someone to help me explain this better.