Just A (logical..?) Thought

amother

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 8:28 am

We all started quarantine last week. It was 3 + weeks to pesach. Wouldn't that give us enough time to-

A. Fight the virus if we were exposed and symptomatic and not infect anyone new
B. Not spread the virus if we have/had it but are/were asymptomatic?
C. If we were not exposed, but plan to see people in 3 weeks who were either A or B or also not exposed...

3 weeks should be more than enough time to figure you were one of the above 3, take measures to bleach and disinfect and then
wouldnt it would be safe to spend pesach with the elderly or immunocompromised? Or am I missing something obvious?
Again in our neighborhood where everyone else also quarantined etc... (assuming that everyone followed the rules..)

etky

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 8:35 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

So they say it can take up to 5 weeks or slightly more for the virus to exit the body. If that is correct then the answer to your questions would be no - it is not safe.

amother

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 8:38 am

etky wrote:

So they say it can take up to 5 weeks or slightly more for the virus to exit the body. If that is correct then the answer to your questions would be no - it is not safe.

I read last night that if you showed symptoms then after your better take another full week of quarantine. That seems to be contradictory advice...

etky

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 8:40 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

I read last night that if you showed symptoms then after your better take another full week of quarantine. That seems to be contradictory advice...

Honestly, much of the information about this virus is contradictory at this stage and really unknown.
However, since we're dealing with potentially life and death situations, I prefer to err of the side of caution, difficult as that may be.

thriver

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 8:43 am

Basically we don’t know. My friend’s father who is not even sixty and was in good health prior, is in the hospital for about a week now and was put on oxygen last night. Just daven for all of the cholim and follow what those in the (sort of—as much as there is to) know are advising.

Daven for the Geulah. May all of the cholim worldwide have a refuah shelaima!

southernbubby

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 8:57 am

It probably depends on the situation. Someone I know had her mother in an independent living apartment for the elderly and apparently whoever is in charge felt that the mother should go live with her daughter. It must be that places like that are more dangerous than being with a family member.

ora_43

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 11:13 am

Let's say you have a couple and 4 kids. They start self-isolating in Week 0.

They don't realize yet that one of the four kids, we'll call him David, was exposed three days earlier.

One week into quarantine, David is sick. Luckily for him, like many kids, he's basically asymptomatic. He is contagious, though. He passes it on to his sister Sarah and brother Yoel. That's the beginning of Week 1.

By Week 2, Sarah is complaining of a headache and tiredness. She doesn't have a fever or cough, though, so her parents assume it's because she's been going to bed so late. They give her an earlier bedtime, and a couple days later she seems to be feeling better.

The mother of the family catches the virus from Sarah.

David recovers completely.

Yoel remains asymptomatic.

Week 3: all four kids are feeling fine. So are both parents. The father of the family has caught the illness from his wife.

Week 4: the mother develops a fever and cough and is diagnosed with covid-19.

Week 5: the father of the family begins showing symptoms.

*
The problem is that unless you actually test everyone, you need something closer to 2 weeks per person to be completely sure you're safe, since the virus doesn't necessarily hit everyone in the family at the same time.

etky

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 11:19 am

ora_43 wrote:

And then there's the problem that the virus is retained in the body for weeks after symptoms pass and during that time the person is still contagious.

Refine

Sun, Mar 22 2020, 11:29 am

Plus the fact that we are all going to the grocery when necessary which is far from sterile.
I think social distancing is not trying to stop the epidemic but rather slow it. So if we social distance effectively the virus will last longer but will be less intense and not overwhelm the health system.
We're basically assuming most people will get it as nobody is in medical isolation, there is no vaccine and nobody is immune. We're just hoping that it doesn't happen to everyone at the same time so there are enough respirators to go around, or that a cure is found soon enough.