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Economic Shutdown Is Estimated to Save 600,000 US Lives
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Amarante




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 11:33 am
Posting in Politics so that any "political" posts are made within the guidelines for politics.

This is from Bloomberg News which is hardly a hot bed of "liberal" political opinion

Besides the human carnage if the social quarantines are lifted prematurely, the economic repercussions would be severe as well. New York City is already the WORLD'S EPICENTER OF THE VIRUS. Already hospitals are contemplating the previously unthinkable in terms of rationing care

https://www.bloomberg.com/news.....lives

Economic Shutdown Is Estimated to Save 600,000 American Lives

Katia Dmitrieva
March 23, 2020, 11:25 AM PDT


President Donald Trump is considering easing health directives that prevent the spread of the coronavirus in an attempt to contain economic fallout. A new analysis suggests that those measures are helping to save hundreds of thousands of lives.

Economists led by Northwestern University’s Martin Eichenbaum wrote that keeping social-distancing measures in place before the number of new virus cases declines -- in other words, before a peak in the infection rate -- could limit infections and prevent as many as 600,000 additional U.S. deaths.

While the economic damage is deeper when optimal health measures are taken, a recession is unavoidable even without them, as infected people would stay at home to recover and millions die, the report shows.

Read more: Fed Unleashes Unprecedented Measures to Shore Up Reeling Economy

“There is an inevitable trade-off between the severity of the recession and the health consequences of the epidemic,” the economists wrote in a working paper distributed this week by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Under a worst-case scenario, with stores remaining open and no social isolation policies, as many as 215 million Americans could become infected and 2.2 million could die from the spread of the virus, the economists’ data shows.

That’s based on an estimate from German Chancellor Angela Merkel that up to 70% of that country’s population could become infected without a vaccine. It also matches the worst-case global estimate from Harvard University epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch.

The Trump administration issued guidelines March 16 for Americans to follow in combating the spread of the coronavirus for 15 days, and that period ends at the end of the month.
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Amarante




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 11:36 am
Fourteen Days. That’s the Most Time We Have to Defeat Coronavirus.
By Ezekiel J. Emanuel
March 23, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0.....epage

America is losing the war against Covid-19, but we can win it with decisive and extraordinary actions now.

Health experts have not been overreacting. Models from Imperial College London and others suggest that up to 2.2 million Americans could die within a year without sufficient efforts to “flatten the curve.”

At the same time, it is right to worry about how Covid-19 will wreck the economy. Projections already suggest that the American economy could contract by more than 15 percent in the second quarter and that the unemployment rate could surpass 20 percent.

But the economy cannot be fixed without solving the pandemic. Only after the virus is contained can we reopen restaurants, bars, gyms and stores; allow people to travel, attend conferences and visit museums; and persuade them to buy cars and houses.

The window to win this war is about seven to 14 days.

If the United States intervenes immediately on the scale that China did, our death toll could be under 100,000. Within three to four months we might be able to begin a return to more normal lives.

There are five top priority areas for action:

Public Health Measures

Many seriously affected states have led the way by closing schools, bars, restaurants and nonessential businesses and by issuing shelter-in-place orders. Unfortunately, because this is not uniform across the country, states that do so are experiencing economic distress while still facing threats from neighbors that are slower to put restrictions in place. States that have so far had relatively low levels of Covid-19 could pre-empt stress on their health systems by acting now.

President Trump needs to immediately order the closing of all schools and nonessential businesses and impose a shelter-in-place policy for the entire country. The majority of the population is already experiencing some version of this protocol or feeling the effects economically; we need to standardize these protocols for the full public health impact.

If these measures are complied with fully, then we may be able to lift them slowly in two to three months, when the percentage of people infected has plateaued and the number of new infections is near zero.

The president needs to establish a system of social pressure for local governments to wield to enforce physical distancing strictly but compassionately. He must order mayors to close most streets to vehicular traffic to make them pedestrian spaces, open enough for Americans to be outside at a safe distance. Exceptions can be made for traffic with a clinical purpose (going to a doctor’s office or pharmacy).

It needs to be acknowledged that while these physical distancing measures are burdensome, adhering to them is a heroic, crucial response. It would help for officials themselves to model these physical distancing measures — such as no longer holding news conferences with numerous officials on the podium.

Testing

The president must be honest with the American public: The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and other agencies failed to roll out testing quickly enough. Such a program needs to be accelerated now. If the delay resulted from a technical error, as Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has suggested, it is important to assign blame only so that we can learn from these failures immediately.

The federal testing director needs expanded authority so he can invoke the Defense Production Act to secure the emergency production and national distribution of testing components like swabs and viral culture media. Over the next two weeks, all Covid-19 testing should be removed from hospitals and clinics so these institutions can focus on treating patients.

Instead, we should immediately use the military, the National Guard, and even a new Public Works Corps made up of unemployed Americans to erect thousands of walk-up and drive-through testing sites nationwide.

We must immediately begin to conduct random samplings of people in a community to determine the percentage of the population with coronavirus and the percentage of people with the virus who die. Establishing up-to-date and localized figures will help inform the intensity and efficacy of our remedies.

Equipment Production

The lack of masks, gowns and ventilators endangers both patients and health care workers, and stymies the nation’s ability to respond to the crisis.

We need a national manufacturing director to assess and allocate national supplies and ramp up production and distribution of what is needed. After ordering all hospitals to conduct an inventory of their needs, the director could prioritize the shipment of supplies to the ones that need them most.

The director should provide congressional appropriations to manufacturers to transform production facilities while issuing necessary regulatory approvals to speed production and using the F.D.A.’s emergency use authorization powers to enact liability protections for firms willing to produce new products. Production could be on a cost-plus basis, as it is for defense contractors already.

Hospitals and Health Care Personnel

Hospitals are about to be overwhelmed with coronavirus cases, and personnel is going to be the most scarce resource.

Hospitals must be ordered to suspend elective surgeries and other procedures, because they use valuable health care personnel, equipment and operating theaters that could be converted to intensive care units. Visitors must be banned (except for terminally ill patients) to reduce coronavirus spread and the need for personal protective equipment.

All hospitals must be directed to institute policies that decrease demand for supplies. For instance, intravenous machines for Covid-19 patients should be kept outside their room when possible so workers can adjust medications without donning protective gear. Hospitals that comply with such rules should be guaranteed interest-free loans for operating expenses.

Any physicians, nurses and other clinicians who are working less because of restrictions on their practices should be encouraged to work at hospitals. We should encourage the reactivation of all retired and nonpracticing physicians, nurses, respiratory therapists and other clinicians who can work. Duke University is already working to train volunteers to assist in a clinical setting. Offer foreign-trained physicians and nurses who cannot practice in the United States an opportunity to work. Grant 12-month extensions to all foreign physicians on J-1 educational exchange visas, with special state licenses.

We should ask for volunteers to travel to cities with more urgent demand, providing salaries and housing stipends. A national hospital oversight director could reposition those clinicians for maximal impact. A coronavirus compensation program could ensure no hospital or clinician is held liable for adverse events during the outbreak unless there is clear negligence.

Nurse practitioners and physician assistants should be allowed to prescribe medications without restrictions.

The Public Works Corps could rapidly train people for clinical functions that do not require full degrees. Even educated laypeople can be trained in weeks as respiratory therapists under the supervision of a certified respiratory therapist.

We should provide day care or home schooling for children of health care workers so their parents can continue to care for Covid-19 patients.

The Economy

Businesses need to retain workers and keep up their facilities so they can rapidly return to operation when Covid-19 is under control. The Treasury Department should issue grants for up to 12 months to closed businesses with fewer than 1,000 workers to cover 80 percent of the equivalent of 2019 wages and benefits for their furloughed employees. These companies should also be allowed to borrow at zero interest up to last year’s revenue.

States should get block grants to create temporary jobs needed to control the public health crisis, such as workers for testing centers, thermal screening in public places, widespread contact tracing, quarantine monitoring and disinfecting public transportation and public places.

To win this war, we need Americans to mobilize faster than they ever have before. We have already lost valuable months. These measures, only a start, will bring out the best in Americans by giving them direction and opportunities to contribute in the war against Covid-19.

If they are successful, then, as China has shown, in two to three months the country can begin to return to normal, stores can reopen, people can work, and the United States will have a rapid, V-shaped economic recovery.

If the United States fails to act decisively now, it will follow Italy’s course or, worse, that of Iran, and recovery may take a decade or more with extraordinary levels of death and dislocation.

Dr. Emanuel is vice provost of global initiatives and a professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
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PinkFridge




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 3:21 pm
Can we really do what China did? I don't want to sound conspiracydik but is it possible they've done more than a democratic republic would do?

And while most states are pretty much mandating the same things - I'm not finding a tremendous difference between shelter in place and what I'd been doing before, but then again, having been exposed I've only been doing curbside shopping - are all the states doing the same minimum?
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Amarante




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 3:27 pm
PinkFridge wrote:
Can we really do what China did? I don't want to sound conspiracydik but is it possible they've done more than a democratic republic would do?

And while most states are pretty much mandating the same things - I'm not finding a tremendous difference between shelter in place and what I'd been doing before, but then again, having been exposed I've only been doing curbside shopping - are all the states doing the same minimum?


I am only considering what is being done now in states like California and New York where people are asked to go out only for essential stuff and to avoid all contact if they are symptomatic or have been in contact with a known case. I posted an article on how one party on March 8 in Connecticut is responsible for a huge cluster of cases in Westport.

Some states are nit taking it seriously at all. The governor of Mississippi stated that he would not impose shelter in place because he didn’t want to be like China. To which a snarky friend said, he wants to be like Italy. Banging head Banging head Banging head

Because Boris Johnson procrastinated, they are projecting th3 UK will be ore like Italy than some of the other western democracies which imposed lockdown provisions earlier than he did. Germany seems to be doing relatively well

My original post is analyzing what it would mean if Trump defied the opinions of public health experts and opposed shelter in place before it was prudent. Not only would there be massive deaths but economic repercussions as well.
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Squishy




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 3:29 pm
Amarante wrote:
Posting in Politics so that any "political" posts are made within the guidelines for politics.

This is from Bloomberg News which is hardly a hot bed of "liberal" political opinion

Besides the human carnage if the social quarantines are lifted prematurely, the economic repercussions would be severe as well. New York City is already the WORLD'S EPICENTER OF THE VIRUS. Already hospitals are contemplating the previously unthinkable in terms of rationing care

https://www.bloomberg.com/news.....lives

Economic Shutdown Is Estimated to Save 600,000 American Lives

Katia Dmitrieva
March 23, 2020, 11:25 AM PDT


President Donald Trump is considering easing health directives that prevent the spread of the coronavirus in an attempt to contain economic fallout. A new analysis suggests that those measures are helping to save hundreds of thousands of lives.

Economists led by Northwestern University’s Martin Eichenbaum wrote that keeping social-distancing measures in place before the number of new virus cases declines -- in other words, before a peak in the infection rate -- could limit infections and prevent as many as 600,000 additional U.S. deaths.

While the economic damage is deeper when optimal health measures are taken, a recession is unavoidable even without them, as infected people would stay at home to recover and millions die, the report shows.

Read more: Fed Unleashes Unprecedented Measures to Shore Up Reeling Economy

“There is an inevitable trade-off between the severity of the recession and the health consequences of the epidemic,” the economists wrote in a working paper distributed this week by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Under a worst-case scenario, with stores remaining open and no social isolation policies, as many as 215 million Americans could become infected and 2.2 million could die from the spread of the virus, the economists’ data shows.

That’s based on an estimate from German Chancellor Angela Merkel that up to 70% of that country’s population could become infected without a vaccine. It also matches the worst-case global estimate from Harvard University epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch.

The Trump administration issued guidelines March 16 for Americans to follow in combating the spread of the coronavirus for 15 days, and that period ends at the end of the month.


You completely lost me at the bolded. Bloomberg news is partisan and makes no pretense of being unbiased. For you to say otherwise is disingenuous and not credible.

Whatever they they say is progressive garbage designed to hurt Trump.
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DrMom




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 3:43 pm
How many lives will be lost (or severely shortened) when millions are out of work, stressed, etc?

There needs to be some balance. Chinese coronavirus is not the only factor affecting people's lifespans and well-being.
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naturalmom5




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 3:44 pm
Today walking back I seen several ladies oushing strollers side by side like it was 2019...

I wanted to scream at them , do you want to be on the cover of the NYT
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Squishy




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 3:55 pm
naturalmom5 wrote:
Today walking back I seen several ladies oushing strollers side by side like it was 2019...

I wanted to scream at them , do you want to be on the cover of the NYT


I want to scream at the disgusting partisan Democrats holding up the bill for relief of Americans for the progressive garbage - funding for abortion clinics, etc.. Let's kill the existing Americans, so we can kill the unborn Americans.
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Amarante




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 4:01 pm
And so it starts. Those who refuse to believe nonpartisan scientists. Do people think all of the Western Democracies - Japan and South Korea are all somehow engaged in a plot to pull the curtain from the orange wizard.

When certain media reports news, they are considered to be reliable sources of factual information. Dailykos is a liberal media source - Hannity is a biased conservative news source but mass media do not write inaccurate information on their news pages and when they make the rare mistake, they correct.

It is just unfortunate those those who question scientific warnings are endangering those people who don't have their heads pulled into their inaccurate sources of information.

I can't believe we are circling back to the same right wing posters who were pooh poohing the threat of the virus three weeks ago on imamother. And now they are back again claiming that all of the shelter in place is unnecessary and a plot by liberals to take over the government.
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Amarante




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 4:04 pm
And for what it is worth, the Democrats added the kinds of provisions that will help the majority of those on imamother such as extended job benefits and restrictions on how bailout money can be used to buy back stock and pay large executive bonuses in lieu of continuing payroll for the actual workers.
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Squishy




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 4:09 pm
Amarante wrote:
And so it starts. Those who refuse to believe nonpartisan scientists. Do people think all of the Western Democracies - Japan and South Korea are all somehow engaged in a plot to pull the curtain from the orange wizard.

When certain media reports news, they are considered to be reliable sources of factual information. Dailykos is a liberal media source - Hannity is a biased conservative news source but mass media do not write inaccurate information on their news pages and when they make the rare mistake, they correct.

It is just unfortunate those those who question scientific warnings are endangering those people who don't have their heads pulled into their inaccurate sources of information.

I can't believe we are circling back to the same right wing posters who were pooh poohing the threat of the virus three weeks ago on imamother. And now they are back again claiming that all of the shelter in place is unnecessary and a plot by liberals to take over the government.


You can't mean me because I didn't poo poo anything.

It sounds incredibly foolish when you claim the media is unbiased - especially Mini Mike's empire whose ego is as big as he is short. I beieve he said Democratic candidates are hands off , but they will go after Trump. And that is your unbiased newspaper. I thought you were smarter than that. I look at that and say everything you say going forward is biased. Only a very not informed person would say Bloomberg news is an unbiased source.

Sorry, but that statement is too stupid to build an argument on.
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Mommyg8




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 4:21 pm
Squishy wrote:
I want to scream at the disgusting partisan Democrats holding up the bill for relief of Americans for the progressive garbage - funding for abortion clinics, etc.. Let's kill the existing Americans, so we can kill the unborn Americans.


This.

What the Democrats are doing right now is just about blackmail. NOW is the time to push your agenda? Don't they have any decency or conscience?

You know there are names for people who profit from other people's misfortunes.
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Squishy




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 4:27 pm
Mommyg8 wrote:
This.

What the Democrats are doing right now is just about blackmail. NOW is the time to push your agenda? Don't they have any decency or conscience?

You know there are names for people who profit from other people's misfortunes.


To answer your question: Democrats have no decency or conscience. They are all about power and violence. They physically attack those they don't like. Nancy Pelosi's daughter is supporting the felony assault against Rand. What is wrong with these people that they have no decency and care for Americans? They are destroying our cities and now they want to destroy our lives in their covid-19 bill filled with pork.
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Cheiny




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 5:30 pm
Mommyg8 wrote:
This.

What the Democrats are doing right now is just about blackmail. NOW is the time to push your agenda? Don't they have any decency or conscience?

You know there are names for people who profit from other people's misfortunes.


Democrat leaders have proven themselves, beyond a shadow of a doubt (as if we didn’t see this before—but now it’s completely undeniable to even the most liberal Trump-haters, if they have any honesty within them) that they could not care less about American lives. Their sole focus is on their own political power and careers. They’ve shown this with their dangerous calls for open borders to even murderers and other hard criminals and among illegal immigrants, in revoking bail laws in NY, and so much more before this, but this, as a time of such a serious crisis, is particularly despicable.
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Fox




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 6:16 pm
1. It is appropriate to be concerned about the persistence of a pandemic that is potentially fatal to large numbers of people.

2. It is also appropriate to be concerned about increasing and normalizing authoritarianism within the federal government and the suspension of states' rights in the name of disease prevention.

3. Being concerned about creeping authoritarianism does not mean you don't care about human life.

4. Considering the best balance between the good of the majority and the good of the few does not mean that you don't care about human life.

5. Journalists and others who claim #3 and #4 are genuinely evil people.
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naturalmom5




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 8:40 pm
Mommyg8 wrote:
This.

What the Democrats are doing right now is just about blackmail. NOW is the time to push your agenda? Don't they have any decency or conscience?

You know there are names for people who profit from other people's misfortunes.


I think about Nancy and Chucky everytime I say ulmalshinim...
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Laiya




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 10:10 pm
Amarante wrote:
And for what it is worth, the Democrats added the kinds of provisions that will help the majority of those on imamother such as extended job benefits and restrictions on how bailout money can be used to buy back stock and pay large executive bonuses in lieu of continuing payroll for the actual workers.


Do you actually believe that what they did was defensible?
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Laiya




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 10:18 pm
DrMom wrote:
How many lives will be lost (or severely shortened) when millions are out of work, stressed, etc?

There needs to be some balance. Chinese coronavirus is not the only factor affecting people's lifespans and well-being.


This. Predicted unemployment rates higher than those of the Great Depression, large-scale homelessness, etc. will lead to rampant drug use, gangs, violent crimes, destruction of communities and cities, overdoses, suicides.

It certainly has a human life price tag attached.

Eta. The question should not be, imo, Which scenario will cost fewer lives?, because that is impossible to answer. Rather, What is the least we can do in terms of destroying our economy that will prevent our health care system from collapsing?


Last edited by Laiya on Tue, Mar 24 2020, 10:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Laiya




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 10:28 pm
Fox wrote:
1. It is appropriate to be concerned about the persistence of a pandemic that is potentially fatal to large numbers of people.

2. It is also appropriate to be concerned about increasing and normalizing authoritarianism within the federal government and the suspension of states' rights in the name of disease prevention.

3. Being concerned about creeping authoritarianism does not mean you don't care about human life.

4. Considering the best balance between the good of the majority and the good of the few does not mean that you don't care about human life.

5. Journalists and others who claim #3 and #4 are genuinely evil people.


Regarding item #2, practically speaking, I don't think US citizens would stand for long-term lockdown or shelter in place, just like I don't think they would have accepted it 2 weeks earlier, before the danger was so apparent. It feels silly to point out that citizens of a police state have a different mindset than US citizens. And also, we're not a police state so how would it be enforced?
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dancingqueen




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Mar 24 2020, 11:01 pm
Laiya wrote:
This. Predicted unemployment rates higher than those of the Great Depression, large-scale homelessness, etc. will lead to rampant drug use, gangs, violent crimes, destruction of communities and cities, overdoses, suicides.

It certainly has a human life price tag attached.


So what do you all propose? Every country that argued along those lines has ended up having to take an even more restrictive lockdown after a spike in transmissions and deaths.
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