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Forum -> Coronavirus Health Questions
Theories and wishes... just my rambling thoughts...



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Sunny Days




 
 
    
 

Post Thu, Mar 26 2020, 9:51 am
So if they’re predicting it to peek still- is that number based on all the people that already had covid19 but because of lack of testing it wasn’t reported?
Because in that case- beH the medical load will be much less then they’re predicting and hopefully sustainable. And life will be able to go back to ‘normal’ Faster... Makes sense? Or am I completely hanging on to a lose hope thread?
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ora_43




 
 
    
 

Post Thu, Mar 26 2020, 10:12 am
I think the hope is that the peak would be a few weeks after starting social distancing. At the point you start social distancing, you have to assume that there are at least 4 pre-symptomatic cases for every 1 case you know of. Over the next few weeks, those cases rapidly become known (as people start showing symptoms) a lot more quickly than the people currently sick are getting better.

Add to that: social distancing reduces the spread of the sickness, but doesn't stop it completely. You go from 1 sick person making 3 other people sick (on average) to 1 sick person making, say, 0.6 other people sick, but the sickness is still spreading.

Eg week 1: 50 known cases, 200 unknown.

Week 2: 250 known cases, 1,000 unknown

Week 3 (social distancing starts): 1,225 known cases, 5,500 unknown (<- 25 week-1 cases resolved)

Week 4: 3,600 known cases, 7,000 unknown (<- note each sick person now infecting fewer people)

Week 5: 8,000 known cases, 5,000 unknown

Week 6: 10,000 known cases, 4,000 unknown

Week 7 (peak): 11,000 known cases, 3,500 unknown

Week 8: 10,900 known cases, 2,900 unknown.
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amother
Salmon


 

Post Thu, Mar 26 2020, 10:14 am
The snowflakes on this site can't be bothered to social distancing and be responsible, the peak is nowhere near, there is no end in sight.
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chocolate moose




 
 
    
 

Post Thu, Mar 26 2020, 10:18 am
amother [ Salmon ] wrote:
The snowflakes on this site can't be bothered to social distancing and be responsible, the peak is nowhere near, there is no end in sight.


Not exactly true. If those most at risk stay home and the rest get sick and get better, we will peak and move on from there.

I don't know exactly when it will end, but it definitely will end.
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