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Will Corona Ever End? Will People Stop Dying?
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amother




OP
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:20 pm
Will this craziness ever stop? It's so scary! How will this end??

Hashem help us! Can someone shed light on this?
Will this be a virus that we have to worry about killing people forever?
Will we need to wear gloves and masks and quarantine forever?
I don't get this!!
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yiddishmom




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:22 pm
Be'ezras Hashem not! Sorry, I don't have an explanation, I just know that Hashem is with us and helps us every day and will hopefully end this madness sooner than later.
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amother




Crimson
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:25 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
Will this craziness ever stop? It's so scary! How will this end??

Hashem help us! Can someone shed light on this?
Will this be a virus that we have to worry about killing people forever?
Will we need to wear gloves and masks and quarantine forever?
I don't get this!!


It'll end in 1 of 2 ways
a vaccine
herd immunity

Either way, it will take about 18 months. The Spanish Flu of 1918, a time when we had a very basic understanding of science and no microscopes powerful enough to even see the virus, likely ended with herd immunity within 10ish months.
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elisheva25




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:26 pm
Not forever!!!
Ofcourse it will end. Iy”h very soon .
For right now, this is our reality and we have to hold on tight !
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amother




OP
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:34 pm
Thank you for your comforting replies.
I love you imamother mothers!

18 months feels like forever.
Will the hospitals be packed for that long? Would you hold off on getting pregnant for now?
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amother




Crimson
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:38 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
Will this craziness ever stop? It's so scary! How will this end??

Hashem help us! Can someone shed light on this?
Will this be a virus that we have to worry about killing people forever?
Will we need to wear gloves and masks and quarantine forever?
I don't get this!!


I know it's scary right now, but in a way we are lucky. A pandemic was bound to occur at some point, its the way of nature. We're extremely lucky that this one: a. is from a family of viruses that we are already familiar with. This means that we have a jump start on possible cures. b. It has a relatively low mortality rate. Even the highest number being cited, lets say a worst case scenario 4% is substantially lower than something like Ebola with a death rate of somewhere around 90%. c. This virus largely impacts the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. It's sad of course but imagine how much more panicked we'd be if the virus was killing children or parents en masse. I think even most individuals 70+ would rather them be effected over their children and grandchildren d. This will be over, a lot of people will die and hopefully hopefully the next time a possibly worse pandemic appears, we'll be a lot more prepared to handle it. A lot of experts are citing South Korea as the example in how to deal with it. One of the reasons they were so prepared with large scale testing, contact tracing etc. is because in 2015 they had a large outbreak of a different coronavirus, MERS. It was a much smaller outbreak since MERS is harder to transmit than Covid, but they had recent experience dealing with an outbreak so they were more prepared. Since the US is not geographically close to Asia where the majority of outbreaks originate, we have little experience dealing with them so we were woefully unprepared.

I hope these things make you feel better about what's going on. When I feel overwhelmed, I think about these things. Of course I'm scared for my 98 year old grandmother, but I'd be utterly terrified if I thought my toddler was at a high risk. I know its scary but this too shall pass.
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amother




OP
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:42 pm
amother [ Crimson ] wrote:
I know it's scary right now, but in a way we are lucky. A pandemic was bound to occur at some point, its the way of nature. We're extremely lucky that this one: a. is from a family of viruses that we are already familiar with. This means that we have a jump start on possible cures. b. It has a relatively low mortality rate. Even the highest number being cited, lets say a worst case scenario 4% is substantially lower than something like Ebola with a death rate of somewhere around 90%. c. This virus largely impacts the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. It's sad of course but imagine how much more panicked we'd be if the virus was killing children or parents en masse. I think even most individuals 70+ would rather them be effected over their children and grandchildren d. This will be over, a lot of people will die and hopefully hopefully the next time a possibly worse pandemic appears, we'll be a lot more prepared to handle it. A lot of experts are citing South Korea as the example in how to deal with it. One of the reasons they were so prepared with large scale testing, contact tracing etc. is because in 2015 they had a large outbreak of a different coronavirus, MERS. It was a much smaller outbreak since MERS is harder to transmit than Covid, but they had recent experience dealing with an outbreak so they were more prepared. Since the US is not geographically close to Asia where the majority of outbreaks originate, we have little experience dealing with them so we were woefully unprepared.

I hope these things make you feel better about what's going on. When I feel overwhelmed, I think about these things. Of course I'm scared for my 98 year old grandmother, but I'd be utterly terrified if I thought my toddler was at a high risk. I know its scary but this too shall pass.


Thank you for being a voice of reason. I can sleep now with some peace!
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elisheva25




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:51 pm
amother [ Crimson ] wrote:
It'll end in 1 of 2 ways
a vaccine
herd immunity

Either way, it will take about 18 months. The Spanish Flu of 1918, a time when we had a very basic understanding of science and no microscopes powerful enough to even see the virus, likely ended with herd immunity within 10ish months.



You really think it will take 18 months ?
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giselle




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:55 pm
amother [ Crimson ] wrote:
It'll end in 1 of 2 ways
a vaccine
herd immunity

Either way, it will take about 18 months. The Spanish Flu of 1918, a time when we had a very basic understanding of science and no microscopes powerful enough to even see the virus, likely ended with herd immunity within 10ish months.

Why will it take 18 months if the Spanish flu took ten months with all the limitations you mentioned above? But actually the Spanish flu lasted a few years.
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amother




Crimson
 

Post  Thu, Mar 26 2020, 11:59 pm
giselle wrote:
Why will it take 18 months if the Spanish flu took ten months with all the limitations you mentioned above? But actually the Spanish flu lasted a few years.


I meant the height of the Spanish Flu, when the majority of the deaths occurred. This will last longer because we're trying to flatten the curve, which means less people will get sick at a time, but the time period during which people get sick will be longer. They didn't have the kind of technology to do contact tracing, they also didn't have grocery delivery etc. All of the things we can now get delivered they had to go out and get which meant they were more exposed, more of them got sick faster and so it was over faster.

If we did nothing and let the pandemic run its course, this would also be over faster but with more people dead.
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amother




Crimson
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:02 am
elisheva25 wrote:
You really think it will take 18 months ?


I think our lives will be impacted for 18 months. What people smarter than me are saying will happen is that in some amount of time, whether its 3 weeks or 3 months, they will lift the restrictions. When they do so, people will start getting sick again and we'll have hot spots where the virus is very active. Then they will just shut down that hot spot, not the entire country. So yes, until there's a vaccine or herd immunity our lives will be impacted in some way by this.
There is some hope that the virus will burn itself out at some point like MERs and SARs and H1N1 largely did but I don't see most experts think that will happen.

We definitely won't have the whole country locked down for 18 months though.
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Mama Bear




 
 
 
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:03 am
No, it wont take forever.
it takes about 4 weeks in a given city for the numbers to start dropping.
And about 4 months to stop spreading in a region / small country.
It will take about 18 months to stop spreading worldwide.
We're in the absolute midst of it right now. It will not be this bad for more than a week or so. it will start dropping soon.
The light is at the end of the tunnel. The tunnel is a bit long but there's light there.
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amother




Gold
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:32 am
I wonder how people can foretell with such certainty. We couldn't foretell this disaster, how can we even foretell the end?

Unless Hashem decrees "dei" soon enough, this just doesn't have an estimated time of termination.
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amother




Burlywood
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:34 am
amother [ Crimson ] wrote:
It'll end in 1 of 2 ways
a vaccine
herd immunity

I'll offer a third way: Effective treatment.

Taking just your two choices, to be honest, more likely the second than the first. The measles vaccine is unusually effective, at 97% for two shots. The flu vaccine is what, 50% effective in a good year? Many other vaccines, like the whooping cough vaccine, don't actually prevent you from giving whooping cough to others, just that you're more likely to get a milder case.

The vaccine will likely help morale and make people feel more in control, but herd immunity would be more likely to be the actual force of stability here.

I'm hoping for treatment though, and I think that whether or not Zelenko's protocol is the right one, I think his attitude of treating EARLY as opposed to waiting until patients are already critical, is the right attitude.

I know this is controversial, but I think Vitamin C might come out of this as a real winner, if enough people can get over their inner hangups enough to try it at high enough doses to be effective.
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amother




Crimson
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:41 am
amother [ Burlywood ] wrote:
I'll offer a third way: Effective treatment.

Taking just your two choices, to be honest, more likely the second than the first. The measles vaccine is unusually effective, at 97% for two shots. The flu vaccine is what, 50% effective in a good year? Many other vaccines, like the whooping cough vaccine, don't actually prevent you from giving whooping cough to others, just that you're more likely to get a milder case.

The vaccine will likely help morale and make people feel more in control, but herd immunity would be more likely to be the actual force of stability here.

I'm hoping for treatment though, and I think that whether or not Zelenko's protocol is the right one, I think his attitude of treating EARLY as opposed to waiting until patients are already critical, is the right attitude.

I know this is controversial, but I think Vitamin C might come out of this as a real winner, if enough people can get over their inner hangups enough to try it at high enough doses to be effective.


Sure effective treatment would work. I just think they're going to put more resources into developing a vaccine.
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amother




Burlywood
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:43 am
amother [ Crimson ] wrote:
Sure effective treatment would work. I just think they're going to put more resources into developing a vaccine.

I wish that wasn't the case, because vaccines are never 100% effective, and at least as much effort should be put into finding a cure.
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amother




Crimson
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:43 am
amother [ Gold ] wrote:
I wonder how people can foretell with such certainty. We couldn't foretell this disaster, how can we even foretell the end?

Unless Hashem decrees "dei" soon enough, this just doesn't have an estimated time of termination.


We definitely could foretell this disaster. People have been predicting that a major pandemic would happen for the past 50 years. In fact earlier this year before this happens a miniseries came out on Netflix featuring people who were preparing for the next pandemic.
Which makes it all the more incredible that we were so unprepared and are literally grasping at straws in a dark room with our eyes blindfolded for solutions.
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amother




Crimson
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:45 am
amother [ Burlywood ] wrote:
I wish that wasn't the case, because vaccines are never 100% effective, and at least as much effort should be put into finding a cure.


Well cures are rarely 100% effective either. Plus people prefer a prophylactic option over getting the disease and getting sick and then getting treatment.
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trixx




 
 
 
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:45 am
amother [ Crimson ] wrote:
I know it's scary right now, but in a way we are lucky. A pandemic was bound to occur at some point, its the way of nature. We're extremely lucky that this one: a. is from a family of viruses that we are already familiar with. This means that we have a jump start on possible cures. b. It has a relatively low mortality rate. Even the highest number being cited, lets say a worst case scenario 4% is substantially lower than something like Ebola with a death rate of somewhere around 90%. c. This virus largely impacts the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. It's sad of course but imagine how much more panicked we'd be if the virus was killing children or parents en masse. I think even most individuals 70+ would rather them be effected over their children and grandchildren d. This will be over, a lot of people will die and hopefully hopefully the next time a possibly worse pandemic appears, we'll be a lot more prepared to handle it. A lot of experts are citing South Korea as the example in how to deal with it. One of the reasons they were so prepared with large scale testing, contact tracing etc. is because in 2015 they had a large outbreak of a different coronavirus, MERS. It was a much smaller outbreak since MERS is harder to transmit than Covid, but they had recent experience dealing with an outbreak so they were more prepared. Since the US is not geographically close to Asia where the majority of outbreaks originate, we have little experience dealing with them so we were woefully unprepared.

I hope these things make you feel better about what's going on. When I feel overwhelmed, I think about these things. Of course I'm scared for my 98 year old grandmother, but I'd be utterly terrified if I thought my toddler was at a high risk. I know its scary but this too shall pass.


We have to stop sprouting this now that real numbers are showing over 50% of NY hospitalized is under age 50. And there have been deaths amongst young and healthy.

Also op, moshiach is coming
For real
He's coming either way every day sooner but I feel like this pesach will be a true geulah
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amother




Crimson
 

Post  Fri, Mar 27 2020, 12:50 am
trixx wrote:
We have to stop sprouting this now that real numbers are showing over 50% of NY hospitalized is under age 50. And there have been deaths amongst young and healthy.

Also op, moshiach is coming
For real
He's coming either way every day sooner but I feel like this pesach will be a true geulah


...And most of them have underlying conditions. Even if there are is a large percentage of those under-50 with no underlying conditions being admitted to the hospital (which I'm not convinced of), the literal one and only thing scientists can seem to agree on about this disease is that it really doesn't kill young people. Take Italy for example, by far the hardest hit country. Only 2.7% of the deaths were people under 60.

https://www.statista.com/stati.....taly/
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