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Israel vs NJ in numbers
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, May 05 2020, 10:54 pm
Israel population 8.884 million
Covid-19 deaths 240

NJ population 8.882 million
Covid-19 deaths 8,000

First of all I believe that Hashem runs the world and that life and death is in Hashem's hands.

If we analyze this huge desrepency in numbers of deaths under the lens of b',derech hateva, it is very puzzling. I rule out the Mediterranean climate because of the deaths in Iran.

Edited from NYC to NJ to reflect comparable land area.


Last edited by CiCi on Wed, May 06 2020, 4:37 am; edited 3 times in total
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amother




Mustard
 

Post  Tue, May 05 2020, 10:57 pm
Government response.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, May 05 2020, 11:00 pm
amother [ Mustard ] wrote:
Government response.


What government response did you find made a difference? The lockdown in Israel came after the lockdown in the US and they are opening up already.
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amother




Vermilion
 

Post  Tue, May 05 2020, 11:08 pm
CiCi wrote:
What government response did you find made a difference? The lockdown in Israel came after the lockdown in the US and they are opening up already.


No, it didn’t.
Their lockdown started 1) earlier and 2) when they had way fewer cases.
obviously they can open up earlier. Everyone has been saying this all along, the sooner you sd the sooner we can end the lockdown
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amother




Mustard
 

Post  Tue, May 05 2020, 11:15 pm
amother [ Vermilion ] wrote:
No, it didn’t.
Their lockdown started 1) earlier and 2) when they had way fewer cases.
obviously they can open up earlier. Everyone has been saying this all along, the sooner you sd the sooner we can end the lockdown


Correct. Everyone thought Israel was overreacting at the time. They implemented travel restrictions very early. They had real lockdowns, not just stay at home orders. Anyone who was exposed was quarantined, real quarantine, where they checked and even tracked people's cell phones. Nothing like NY where the husband is a known covid patient and the wife is in the supermarket. They mobilized the army to assist in enforcing lockdowns. The mossad got involved in ensuring they had necessary medical supplies. These are just some examples.
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Mommyg8




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, May 05 2020, 11:44 pm
Tracing. Quarantine. Lockdown. Israel was 100 X more strict and started much earlier. They also traced contacts right from the beginning. And did WAY more testing.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, May 05 2020, 11:45 pm
amother [ Vermilion ] wrote:
No, it didn’t.
Their lockdown started 1) earlier and 2) when they had way fewer cases.
obviously they can open up earlier. Everyone has been saying this all along, the sooner you sd the sooner we can end the lockdown


The lockdown in Israel did start when they had fewer cases.

Israel's lockdown though began later than in the US (which began in late March) right before Pesach in the second week of April, although they did have some restrictions prior to that.

Israel isolated and quarantine travellers coming into Israel since early March. That may have made a huge impact.


Last edited by CiCi on Wed, May 06 2020, 12:16 am; edited 2 times in total
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LisaS




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 12:05 am
Cici I agree with you, it's hard to explain bderech hateva. Israel also has very densely populated areas and many communities where people don't have access to media and up-to-date information. Despite all this the death rate is relatively low BH.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 12:14 am
LisaS wrote:
Cici I agree with you, it's hard to explain bderech hateva. Israel also has very densely populated areas and many communities where people don't have access to media and up-to-date information. Despite all this the death rate is relatively low BH.


👍


Last edited by CiCi on Wed, May 06 2020, 3:38 am; edited 1 time in total
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DrMom




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 12:18 am
Mommyg8 wrote:
Tracing. Quarantine. Lockdown. Israel was 100 X more strict and started much earlier. They also traced contacts right from the beginning. And did WAY more testing.

This (although not sure about the testing rate).

NY had flights arriving from infected areas for weeks after we already closed our borders.

Also, NYC kept it's subway system open. A subway car is basically a stuffy Petri dish on wheels.

Also, Israelis were much more disciplined about following the strict lockdown rules. We approached it like we are fighting a war (something we are used to, for better or worse).
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amother




White
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 12:19 am
Maybe Hashem is telling us something about living in Eretz Yisrael instead of galus?
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amother




Mustard
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 12:20 am
amother [ White ] wrote:
Maybe Hashem is telling us something about living in Eretz Yisrael instead of galus?
.
Everyone is EY right now is in galus.
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amother




Lime
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 12:24 am
Mommyg8 wrote:
Tracing. Quarantine. Lockdown. Israel was 100 X more strict and started much earlier. They also traced contacts right from the beginning. And did WAY more testing.

Also (hold the tomatoes!) more Americans tend to be overweight than elsewhere. It doesn't help with respiratory viruses. I remember my first visit to America (Florida) at 10 years old and two things really astonished me-
how massive food portion sizes were (we'd get served in a restaurant and literally burst out laughing)
how many morbidly obese people there were, many who couldn't even walk anymore
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ora_43




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 12:47 am
It's not the medical treatment. Among people hospitalized, the rate of death in Israel is unfortunately still pretty high.

I'm not ruling out the possibility that in a few dozen cases here and there experimental treatments helped in Israel, or the possibility that some hospitals in NYC are terrible and have higher-than-necessary mortality rates. But overall, we're talking a difference of something like 19% vs 24% (to date. there are still many cases not resolved in both countries). There's no known treatment for this anywhere, and in Israel too a lot of times there's nothing doctors can do.

Keep in mind, too, that on average Israelis are younger and in slightly better health (eg lower rates of obesity).

I think there are two big differences: stopping the spread, and access to healthcare. Israel started implementing serious restrictions before there was a single death, and has made a serious effort to find and quarantine every case.
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amother




Gold
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 12:59 am
CiCi wrote:
The lockdown in Israel did start when they had fewer cases.

Israel's lockdown though began later than in the US (which began in late March) right before Pesach in the second week of April, although they did have some restrictions prior to that.


Not true.

school is out since Purim. non-essential workplaces had to work from home if possible and/or work at 50% capacity since March 15.
No gatherings over 10 people since March 15
public transportation at 25% since March 20(no trains, and 20 people per intercity bus)

and much more.

literal lockdown (ie "don't go anywhere not essential") started by the end of March.
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ora_43




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 1:21 am
Just a handful of examples of things that look nuts from an Israeli perspective:

"I have covid, so my husband has been doing the shopping."

Actually heard this from an American. Whhyyy how could anyone possibly think this is a good idea? The odds he has covid too are so so high!

In Israel: the minute his wife was diagnosed, he'd be quarantined (not 'stay home, except for walks outside, trips to the store, etc' 'quarantine,' but full-on 'don't leave your room' quarantine). If they needed food social services would help hook them up with someone who can bring them food.

"I think I have covid. It got really bad, so I went to the ER."

Like... the regular ER??? You just walked right into the regular ER, which is full of people with underlying health conditions and doctors who we really really can't afford to see get sick right now? (Answer: yup, apparently that really is what they meant. Still hoping I somehow misunderstood.)

In Israel: If you think you might have covid, you call in advance and are taken to a separate area.

"I'm pretty sure I have covid, but there's no way to know."

Not blaming anyone for this one. But it's one of the huge differences. Israel's also had a problem with testing shortages, but overall there's been a real effort to test everyone who's likely to have it.

"I'm feeling better, so there's no reason not to go to visit family. I'm immune now."

This might actually true? I hope it is? Still, very different from here. In Israel: you have to test negative to leave quarantine. There is no permission to visit vulnerable people after being sick, and definitely not when you still might have the virus in your system. (And there can be a huge time gap. It took one patient here over a month to test negative, even though he felt fine the whole time.)

"Employees can have 5 days of paid leave for quarantine."

But... quarantine is two weeks.

Basically, people have every incentive to keep quiet about their exposure to a covid patient so that they don't lose a week of pay.

"If you're uninsured, don't pay your bills right away. There may be legislation to help with that later."

So someone with an income of $25,000 a year should just rack up a $40,000 hospital bill and hope the government decides to help with that? That's even worse than the lack of family leave.

PPE shortages well into April.

PPE is super important. The CIA should get on that.

(but seriously, the federal-vs-state issue seems to be making this more complicated in the US than it is here)
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ora_43




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 1:24 am
Just so it's clear, I'm definitely not saying Israel had a perfect response. Or that we have a better system of government in general (for the entire crisis we've had an interim government, because why let a pandemic get in the way of needless political bickering Can't Believe It ).

A big part of why Israel responded so quickly was a severe, ongoing shortage of hospital beds.
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amother




Ivory
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 1:29 am
CiCi wrote:
The lockdown in Israel did start when they had fewer cases.

Israel's lockdown though began later than in the US (which began in late March) right before Pesach in the second week of April, although they did have some restrictions prior to that.

Israel isolated and quarantine travellers coming into Israel since early March. That may have made a huge impact.



Israel's schools were closed before the US and lockdown started before the US


Also, here there was actually enforcement.
Americans are way to undisciplined to do what Israelis did for 6 weeks. We didn't go anywhere but 1 store. Everything was closed.
In America even during lockdown people were going to Target for fun🙄
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Rappel




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 1:39 am
Do I think people made a fair bit of hishtadlut here? Absolutely.

But I don't think that explains our unbelievably low death rate. Every life is precious, and we mourn every person who dies, but the statistics are simply mind-boggling... Until you consider the hashgacha pratit that is palpable here. This is Hashem's land, and the same Hashem who makes every day here a miracle also runs the Coronavirus epidemic. He's in charge, in every way, and I think everyone sees that.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 2:38 am
Rappel wrote:
Do I think people made a fair bit of hishtadlut here? Absolutely.

But I don't think that explains our unbelievably low death rate. Every life is precious, and we mourn every person who dies, but the statistics are simply mind-boggling... Until you consider the hashgacha pratit that is palpable here. This is Hashem's land, and the same Hashem who makes every day here a miracle also runs the Coronavirus epidemic. He's in charge, in every way, and I think everyone sees that.


True. Sure we need to do our hishtadlus, but the bottom line is that הקב"ה runs the world.


Last edited by CiCi on Wed, May 06 2020, 4:31 am; edited 2 times in total
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