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Israel vs NJ in numbers
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DrMom




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:14 am
I think a comparison with NJ is better than NYC.

NJ has a similar population and also area (hence, similar overall population density) to Israel, and is a mixture of urban, suburban, and rural areas.

NJ's numbers are still orders of magnitude higher than Israel's, so the basic conclusions still stand, but at least the comparison is more even.
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chanchy123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:16 am
Is this a nes? Of course, Hashem sent an Yisrael good shlichim.
Several steps were crucial in Israeli response. As early as February anyone who came into the country from infected countries were quarantined for two weeks. Anyone in quarantine showing symptoms was tested (at home). Even now with 16k plus patients testing positive anyone tested positive has to trace their steps for 14 days prior to the test and anyone exposed was quarantined by law for 14 days. By Purim there were less than 100 patients but more than 60k in (full complete) quarantine even from immediate family in the house.
Israel stopped flights from China very early. It banned foreigners from entering in early March and encouraged all Israelis not to leave the country in the one of the most busy tourist season.
By the second week in March every large events were shut down (over 5k people) and anyone who came in from abroad was banned from attending a gathering of more than 100 people.
By Purim most work places transferred to work from home. Schools were shut on the 15, when huge Simchas were still held in Brooklyn as per Imamother and we saw the huge lines of Americans coming back from Europe being crammed for hours in the airports.
Compliance was not 100% here but those first steps were enough for the virus not to spread out of control.
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Mayflower




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:22 am
I think ora_43 and DrMom hit the nail on the head. Americans yell TYRANNY and POLICE STATE when restrictions are put in place, Israelis are much more disciplined and used to restrictions for the greater good.

Israel has done an amazing job, but there are other countries as well with similar numbers.

(For example, Belarus (population: 9.4 million) : COVID-19 cases : 18,350 - deaths : 107), or Austria, Greece...).

Of course we should thank Hashem for every life saved and for sparing Israel. But I think it can be dangerous to say it's all a miracle, because it takes away personal responsibility.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:28 am
DrMom wrote:
I think a comparison with NJ is better than NYC.

NJ has a similar population and also area (hence, similar overall population density) to Israel, and is a mixture of urban, suburban, and rural areas.

NJ's numbers are still orders of magnitude higher than Israel's, so the basic conclusions still stand, but at least the comparison is more even.


No, I davka wanted this stark contrast, I'm not looking for similar comparisons. This comparison reveals a lot of hashgacha pratis and what kind of hishtadlus is appropriate in this situation.
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Rappel




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:29 am
Also, chanchy: the hospitals were ready way before the waves hit. They immediately set up well-stocked, empty Covid wards, using protocols and arrangements normally reserved for states of war. The Mossad was running all over the world picking up extra medical supplies. Shabak downloaded spyware into all our phones, to track disease contact and rule-breakers. The IDF and Navy started jerry-rigging respirators and ventilators. And every single chessed individual (which means almost everyone LOL) went into overdrive to help the sick and preserve containment. Everyone was prepared and knew what to do. Mi ke'amcha Yisrael.
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shabbatiscoming




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:34 am
CiCi wrote:
What government response did you find made a difference? The lockdown in Israel came after the lockdown in the US and they are opening up already.
we have been locked officially since two days after purim. Many people were already staying home before that.
And floghts were stopped shortly after that. That seemed to make a big difference as well.
And as for opening things up, many feel its a bit too fast, but it is what it is and we will see if there is a resurge of cases or not. But in quite a few hospitals the covid units have thankfully closed.
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chanchy123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:34 am
Rappel wrote:
Also, chanchy: the hospitals were ready way before the waves hit. They immediately set up well-stocked, empty Covid wards, using protocols and arrangements normally reserved for states of war. The Mossad was running all over the world picking up extra medical supplies. Shabak downloaded spyware into all our phones, to track disease contact and rule-breakers. The IDF and Navy started jerry-rigging respirators and ventilators. And every single chessed individual (which means almost everyone LOL) went into overdrive to help the sick and preserve containment. Everyone was prepared and knew what to do. Mi ke'amcha Yisrael.

Yes but that was all possible because we weren’t overwhelmed with cases from the start.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:34 am
Mayflower wrote:
I think ora_43 and DrMom hit the nail on the head. Americans yell TYRANNY and POLICE STATE when restrictions are put in place, Israelis are much more disciplined and used to restrictions for the greater good.

Israel has done an amazing job, but there are other countries as well with similar numbers.

(For example, Belarus (population: 9.4 million) : COVID-19 cases : 18,350 - deaths : 107), or Austria, Greece...).

Of course we should thank Hashem for every life saved and for sparing Israel. But I think it can be dangerous to say it's all a miracle, because it takes away personal responsibility.


You can say that about any miracle...nobody is saying to rely only on miracles but the bottom line is that it is a miracle.

I don't think Israelis were more disciplined. I do believe that there were less cases because those who arrived in Israel had to quarantine and eventually flights were totally stopped. There were hundreds of thousands of Chinese, including from the Wuhan province, Italians, people from infected cruises, and infected people all over the world coming into the US AFTER the outbreak was already in full swing.


Last edited by CiCi on Wed, May 06 2020, 3:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:35 am
chanchy123 wrote:
Yes but that was all possible because we weren’t overwhelmed with cases from the start.


Exactly!
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etky




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:48 am
CiCi wrote:
You can say that about any miracle...nobody is saying to rely only on miracles but the bottom line is that it is a miracle.

I don't think Israelis were more disciplined. I do believe that there were less cases because those who arrived in Israel had to quarantine and eventually flights were totally stopped. There were hundreds of thousands of Chinese, including from the Wuhan province, Italians, people from infected cruises, and infected people all over the world coming into the US AFTER the outbreak was already in full swing.


Maybe, maybe not.
But there were stricter, more coherent guidelines (thank you Health Ministry) and more exact information being put out to the public practically minute by minute.
And this in addition to everything else that posters have written - the early response and, most significantly IMO, the border closings, restrictions and quarantine requirements that were incumbent on foreigners and returning Israelis alike.
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DrMom




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:53 am
CiCi wrote:
No, I davka wanted this stark contrast, I'm not looking for similar comparisons. This comparison reveals a lot of hashgacha pratis and what kind of hishtadlus is appropriate in this situation.

Huh? Not saying that HaShem didn't have a hand in any of this, but your argument makes no sense.

If you have two places (A and B) and A is crowded+bad policy and B is not crowded+good policy and A comes away with fewer covid cases than B, THEN you may be able to claim "wow! a miracle!"

But if B has fewer cases than A, that claim is very weak. Someone could just point out "Um, well, A is crowded and enacted stupid policies. Of course they got hit harder."

To isolate the impact of policy, you should least compare two places with similar starting points in terms of pop density, demographics, etc. but DIFFERENT policies.
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banana123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 3:55 am
chanchy123 wrote:
Yes but that was all possible because we weren’t overwhelmed with cases from the start.

...because we acted quickly, before it got out of hand, after we saw that failure to act quickly would lead to overwhelm possibly within a week.
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chanchy123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:00 am
banana123 wrote:
...because we acted quickly, before it got out of hand, after we saw that failure to act quickly would lead to overwhelm possibly within a week.

We acted on time because our leaders new what they were doing, they didn’t wait to see what cv other places were doing.
Now let’s wait for the second wave after everyone has been convinced that the lockdown ave regulations were all overreactions.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:08 am
DrMom wrote:
Huh? Not saying that HaShem didn't have a hand in any of this, but your argument makes no sense.

If you have two places (A and B) and A is crowded+bad policy and B is not crowded+good policy and A comes away with fewer covid cases than B, THEN you may be able to claim "wow! a miracle!"

But if B has fewer cases than A, that claim is very weak. Someone could just point out "Um, well, A is crowded and enacted stupid policies. Of course they got hit harder."

To isolate the impact of policy, you should least compare two places with similar starting points in terms of pop density, demographics, etc. but DIFFERENT policies.


Ok, fair point. (Maybe I'll change it in my first comment.) But it's still 8000 vs 240 deaths. The difference is still huge.


Last edited by CiCi on Wed, May 06 2020, 4:24 am; edited 1 time in total
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amother




Ivory
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:15 am
CiCi wrote:
You can say that about any miracle...nobody is saying to rely only on miracles but the bottom line is that it is a miracle.

I don't think Israelis were more disciplined. I do believe that there were less cases because those who arrived in Israel had to quarantine and eventually flights were totally stopped. There were hundreds of thousands of Chinese, including from the Wuhan province, Italians, people from infected cruises, and infected people all over the world coming into the US AFTER the outbreak was already in full swing.


I dont know that Israeli are more disciplined but FOR SURE there was more enforcement.

I live on a big street. Every day for weeks there were road blocks stopping every car asking where they were going and turning back cars that were not essential.

They closed the streets on yom tov.
Erev yom tov I saw them stop people who were walking and send them home.

Stores were shut down.

Also, I just saw online (so totally not reliable) but someone who is a physical therapist that goes to old people's homes along with nurses etc to provide in home care. One of his patients died from Corona. He self-isolated but his agency told him he doesn't have to and that he wouldn't be paid. 2 nurses who were also exposed to a confirmed corona case decided they couldn't be unpaid and were still going to work. Apparently the CDC said this is ok. They also decided not to disclose that they were exposed to corona. So these people are going around to people's houses and providing care while being probable carriers of the disease. Apparently this is ok in the U.S.
In Israel, these people would have been placed in mandatory isolation and fined or arrested for not complying.

The lockdowns in America, even NY, were largely voluntary and self-determinated. So no rules, everyone did what they wanted. So very possibly ineffective.

Hashem runs the world but I think all this is pretty basic hishtadlus.
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etky




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:17 am
chanchy123 wrote:
We acted on time because our leaders new what they were doing, they didn’t wait to see what cv other places were doing.
Now let’s wait for the second wave after everyone has been convinced that the lockdown ave regulations were all overreactions.


It's infuriating to read all the opinon pieces that are promoting this claim of overreaction.
Let's wait indeed - and hope that we have the same success the second time around.
In general I feel that discussions about the 'miraculous' nature of the current numbers are premature and also that there are דברים שהשתיקה יפה להם.
Let's focus on our hishtadlut, on what we need to do now to prevent an uptick in the numbers and to prepare of any eventuality.
There will be enough time later to dissect.
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banana123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:17 am
chanchy123 wrote:
We acted on time because our leaders new what they were doing, they didn’t wait to see what cv other places were doing.
Now let’s wait for the second wave after everyone has been convinced that the lockdown ave regulations were all overreactions.

I'm not so scared of the second wave as much as I am about mutation.

BH I think Bibi sees things like DH and I do - he has been comparing this to Spanish flu since the beginning and I can't imagine he hasn't thought of a mutated second round, akin to what happened with Spanish flu. So I can only hope that the government acts in time.

But we do need to take into account that our borders might need to remain closed from about October on - if we are even able to open them before that.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:26 am
What I got out of the comparison was that only returning Americans should have been let into the US from February and each passenger thoroughly checked. That is prevention at the source! It would've prevented thousands of infected people from spreading it to other thousands of people...

On the other hand, the virus is here to stay so herd immunity may be better. In this case it may be better scenrio that more people were infected. I'm going back and forth on that.

Whichever way it plays out, the governments are playing a huge role in so many deaths and the prevention of deaths. But לב מלכים
'ושרים ביד ה. Hashem is controlling the outcome which we have yet to see.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:29 am
etky wrote:
It's infuriating to read all the opinon pieces that are promoting this claim of overreaction.
Let's wait indeed - and hope that we have the same success the second time around.
In general I feel that discussions about the 'miraculous' nature of the current numbers are premature and also that there are דברים שהשתיקה יפה להם.
Let's focus on our hishtadlut, on what we need to do now to prevent an uptick in the numbers and to prepare of any eventuality.
There will be enough time later to dissect.


I remember reading about people who were talking about how amazing the Israeli army is after Israel's 6 day war and they discounted the miracles Hashem did to save them from their enemies because they planned it so well, etc...

There's yad Hashem in this situation too, whatever the outcome, whether you see it or not.
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DrMom




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:31 am
etky wrote:
It's infuriating to read all the opinon pieces that are promoting this claim of overreaction.
Let's wait indeed - and hope that we have the same success the second time around.
In general I feel that discussions about the 'miraculous' nature of the current numbers are premature and also that there are דברים שהשתיקה יפה להם.
Let's focus on our hishtadlut, on what we need to do now to prevent an uptick in the numbers and to prepare of any eventuality.
There will be enough time later to dissect.

THIS
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