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Israel vs NJ in numbers
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etky




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:31 am
CiCi wrote:
I remember reading about people who were talking about how amazing the Israeli army is after Israel's 6 day war and they discounted the miracles Hashem did to save them from their enemies because they planned it so well, etc...

There's yad Hashem in this situation too, whatever the outcome, whether you see it or not.


I am in no way discounting Hashem's involvement in what is going on here.
Merely putting forth the opinon that one does not need to speculate about a situation while it is ongoing and could change on a dime.
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chanchy123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:32 am
CiCi wrote:
What I got out of the comparison was that only returning Americans should have been let into the US from February and each passenger thoroughly checked. That is prevention at the source! It would've prevented thousands of infected people from spreading it to other thousands of people...

On the other hand, the virus is here to stay so herd immunity may be better. In this case it may be better scenrio that more people were infected. I'm going back and forth on that.

Whichever way it plays out, the governments are playing a huge role in so many deaths and the prevention of deaths. But לב מלכים
'ושרים ביד ה. Hashem is controlling the outcome which we have yet to see.

I wonder about the herd immunity. As Israelis, we will be very limited in traveling abroad because we are not immune. We just got our kids US passports on Shoshan Purim, we were planning on traveling in May (now). Who knows when we will be able to even use these passports, not until there is a vaccine.
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banana123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:44 am
chanchy123 wrote:
I wonder about the herd immunity. As Israelis, we will be very limited in traveling abroad because we are not immune. We just got our kids US passports on Shoshan Purim, we were planning on traveling in May (now). Who knows when we will be able to even use these passports, not until there is a vaccine.

They are investigating whether herd immunity exists. It's not clear that it does. It's also not clear for how long a person is immune - it could be that those who tested positive at the beginning of NYC's outbreak, will no longer by immune by the end of the outbreak. We simply don't know.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 4:47 am
etky wrote:
I am in no way discounting Hashem's involvement in what is going on here.
Merely putting forth the opinon that one does not need to speculate about a situation while it is ongoing and could change on a dime.


Speculation and analysation and reasoning is part of human nature. But I invite you to join the game thread if this line of thought is not your cup of tea Wink
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salt




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 5:16 am
Mayflower wrote:
I think ora_43 and DrMom hit the nail on the head. Americans yell TYRANNY and POLICE STATE when restrictions are put in place, Israelis are much more disciplined and used to restrictions for the greater good.

Israel has done an amazing job, but there are other countries as well with similar numbers.

(For example, Belarus (population: 9.4 million) : COVID-19 cases : 18,350 - deaths : 107), or Austria, Greece...).

Of course we should thank Hashem for every life saved and for sparing Israel. But I think it can be dangerous to say it's all a miracle, because it takes away personal responsibility.


It was prime Minister Netanyahu who advised the President of Austria to close his borders, to avoid an outbreak of Corona.
see here
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chanchy123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 5:19 am
salt wrote:
It was prime Minister Netanyahu who advised the President of Austria to close his borders, to avoid an outbreak of Corona.
see here

Also Belarus is a third world country
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Ora in town




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 5:43 am
CiCi wrote:
What government response did you find made a difference? The lockdown in Israel came after the lockdown in the US and they are opening up already.


Israel reacted in January/february. Plus Israel can close it's borders.

They quarantined travelers from an expanding list of countries, no matter whether they were Israeli citizens or not. Quarantine was strictly enforced by police.
They tracked contacts of infected people and quarantined them from at least February.
They closed schools before Purim. they also had checks for temperature in supermarkets before purim.

They really were on a good course until Purim, with no deaths and a few hundered infected.

However, they also made mistakes:
- They did not test people without contacts to known carriers,or people without symptoms (except if they were a contact to a known carrier) and even people with symptoms (cold, flu) when they thought the symptoms did not match. So they might have missed quite a few cases in the early period (before Purim).
- They did not enforce social distancing on Purim, they allowed assemblies up to 5000 people
- They let in people from the USA without quarantining.

So they had an outbreak after purim, probably the combined effect of Purim and infected travelers coming in from the USA...

However, they mastered it quite well.

Of course, as opposed to New Jersey, they have full control over their borders.
Quarantine for incoming travelers would by no means be enforcable in New Jersey.

However, I think the qualified response by the government, who is also used to deal with crisis situations, makes a huge difference.

I think that the USA were really betrayed by their government, both on federal and state level... (it's not about party politics, Trump is completeley incapable of handling such a situation, but there were also huge fails on the part of democratic governors and mayors, especially in NY).
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amother




Slateblue
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 5:52 am
I am just waiting for someone to say that it was the minyanim in NY that caused the huge difference.

NO! Not true. There were plenty of minyanim in EY (whether porch, courtyard or whatever..). I personally know a few men who never missed a minyan. (I am not condoning it, just stating fact)

I think the main thing was the enforcement, corona hotels...
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etky




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 5:55 am
amother [ Slateblue ] wrote:
I am just waiting for someone to say that it was the minyanim in NY that caused the huge difference.

NO! Not true. There were plenty of minyanim in EY (whether porch, courtyard or whatever..). I personally know a few men who never missed a minyan. (I am not condoning it, just stating fact)

I think the main thing was the enforcement, corona hotels...


Minyanim were a major source of infection in both places.
Especially before (Shabbat Zachor...), during and right after Purim.
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amother




Slateblue
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 6:02 am
etky wrote:
Minyanim were a major source of infection in both places.
Especially before (Shabbat Zachor...), during and right after Purim.


I was talking about the SD minyanim of the past few weeks. Also same in both places.

(eta- I see the OP changed her OP from NY to NJ.)
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amother




Ivory
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 6:07 am
CiCi wrote:
I remember reading about people who were talking about how amazing the Israeli army is after Israel's 6 day war and they discounted the miracles Hashem did to save them from their enemies because they planned it so well, etc...

There's yad Hashem in this situation too, whatever the outcome, whether you see it or not.


You are very much posting with an agenda here.

You can't just say oh yad hashem yad hashem without looking at what hishtadlus you could have done. Thats a slippery slope and frum jews don't believe that. We of course believe in yad hashem but we also strongly believe that we can and should do everything we can.

Fact is, the U.S did a terrible job managing the pandemic. Most other countries managed to do a full lockdown and have started having exit plans. Only America decided they couldn't. The leaders failed the people and the saddest part is that many Americans refuse to see how their leaders sacrificed them
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WitchKitty




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 6:20 am
amother [ Slateblue ] wrote:
I am just waiting for someone to say that it was the minyanim in NY that caused the huge difference.

NO! Not true. There were plenty of minyanim in EY (whether porch, courtyard or whatever..). I personally know a few men who never missed a minyan. (I am not condoning it, just stating fact)

I think the main thing was the enforcement, corona hotels...


Right, because it's easy to get coronavirus through windows.
The only minyanim until restrictions were eased were porch/window minyanim, where not ONE person left the house. Windows/porches only.
There is no way to do that in NY/NJ. No one will hear the chazzan 6 houses down.
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sequoia




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 6:37 am
I think that so far Ukraine has handled it pretty well. We don’t have an advanced medical system, so containment was important from the beginning.

Schools, day cares, and theaters were closed back when there was one known case of Covid in the country. Cafes and restaurants switched to delivery/takeout only a few days after that. Small grocery stores have no more than five people at a time.

Borders were closed rapidly (as everywhere in Europe). Intercity trains and flights are cancelled, and the subway systems in Kyiv and Kharkiv are shut down. At one point parks were closed as well. Now they are open de facto but not de jure. I am nervous about what happens when the quarantine officially ends on May 11. I hope they won’t reopen everything too quickly.
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Shuly




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 6:43 am
Israel closed schools a week before NY and at least 2 weeks before NJ.

Israel tracked everyone. My friend got a phone call from the health ministry saying that the taxi driver of the taxi she took more than a week ago has Corona and she needs to isolate in her bedroom for 2 weeks from her taxi ride.

Another friend whose husband got Corona was not allowed to leave her house even to take out the garbage until her husband tested negative! She would leave the bag outside the door and a kind neighbor wearing a mask and gloves took it for her.

Police stopped cars, tickets were given out and we're still not allowed to go anywhere without masks.

People coming to the country are sent to quarantine hotels for 2 weeks and not allowed out until they test negative.

That being said, it's a lot easier for Israel to enforce these laws because they have anti-terrorist security tracking, only one airport and very defined borders that are easily closed.
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ora_43




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 6:46 am
I agree that we should focus now on the ongoing efforts. This story isn't over.

I do think that until now things more or less match the models. Virus with exponential growth = even a one-week delay in shutting things down makes a MASSIVE difference, like, orders of magnitude difference.

I think human brains aren't really wired to understand exponential growth. (not that this is truly exponential since it would level off after a few weeks when most people are infected, but the first stages are.) This is what it looks like.

The delay in the onset of symptoms and asymptomatic spread really don't help things. This is not an easy virus to fight.
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DrMom




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 7:47 am
ora_43 wrote:
I agree that we should focus now on the ongoing efforts. This story isn't over.

I do think that until now things more or less match the models. Virus with exponential growth = even a one-week delay in shutting things down makes a MASSIVE difference, like, orders of magnitude difference.

I think human brains aren't really wired to understand exponential growth. (not that this is truly exponential since it would level off after a few weeks when most people are infected, but the first stages are.) This is what it looks like.

The delay in the onset of symptoms and asymptomatic spread really don't help things. This is not an easy virus to fight.

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PinkFridge




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 8:06 am
Everyone's right. Israel did a lot of good modeling but we must never forget Tehillim 127:1.
We can only control our hishtadlus (if that much), not the results.


Last edited by PinkFridge on Wed, May 06 2020, 8:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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amother




Honeydew
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 8:06 am
I think another thing has to look at is nyc also has a lot of homeless they have no protection from this sort of thing. Also yes we look at the numbers a lot in our community. But from what I saw it hit the African-American community really hard also a lot of people live very cramped together in low income neighborhoods and also live multifamily. Another thing is even without this pandemic a number of nyc hospitals already were terrible place to end up. I have birth years ago in a nyc hospital not in bp and it was the worst experience of my life. I was sent in by my doctor and sat and triage for hours. After giving birth in the middle of the night nurses to help me with bf they stood across the room saying well you could just give her a bottle and your baby's been screaming. After I asked for a really long time where my baby was. I also was not getting food the next day I had to ask multiple times for a meal. That was on a regular day. I think nyc has a lot to look into after all this And really figure out what went wrong. I wonder how many people will leave New York after this.
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etky




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 8:07 am
So many reasons why Israel has been more successful - so far- in combating the virus here, but aside from the measures that were taken you have to take into account that certain features of Israel, as a state,: it's compact size, ability to close borders, citizens' willingness to 'lie low' and abandon 'normal' life as practiced in other situations, one central health authority calling the shots and issuing guidelines, the ease of mobillizing resources on the national level, ability to enforce regulations etc just make it easier.
One thing though that has not really been addressed is the very significant fact that the PA seems not have a huge health crisis on its hands and has apparently been successful in containing the virus. Since we don't really have a hermetic border with the PA that is an important (and unexpected) fact that has worked in our favor too.
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banana123




 
 
 
 

Post  Wed, May 06 2020, 8:19 am
etky wrote:
So many reasons why Israel has been more successful - so far- in combating the virus here, but aside from the measures that were taken you have to take into account that certain features of Israel, as a state,: it's compact size, ability to close borders, citizens' willingness to 'lie low' and abandon 'normal' life as practiced in other situations, one central health authority calling the shots and issuing guidelines, the ease of mobillizing resources on the national level, ability to enforce regulations etc just make it easier.
One thing though that has not really been addressed is the very significant fact that the PA seems not have a huge health crisis on its hands and has apparently been successful in containing the virus. Since we don't really have a hermetic border with the PA that is an important (and unexpected) fact that has worked in our favor too.

I don't trust the PA's numbers. I suspect they have a much higher number of cases than they are willing to admit. We cannot allow PA Arabs in without endangering Israelis' health.
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