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Second wave & Imamother logic
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Ora in town




 
 
 
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 7:18 am
soap suds wrote:
What is the difference between 2nd wave and 2nd spike? Does the wave refer to a mutated form of the virus, which can indeed reinfect peopl who've already had it once?

When we talk about a new spike, I believe we mean new people becoming infected, who haven't been infected yet. In which case, it would be a bigger concern in regions that haven't had a high rate of infection.

Dr. Fauci may be rightfully concerned about a spike in the US in general. Even if he's right, Imamothers may be right in being less concerned since so many in our community have been infected the first time around and don't need to worry about being reinfected (for the time being, however long immunity lasts).

The "second wave" refers to this:
If the virus is left uncontrolled, each carrier infects 3 others on average, and this leads to the exponential growth we saw before lockdown.
If we go back to business as usual, without precautions to limit virus spread, the exponential growth will start again.
For the time being, not enough people have immunity to insure "herd immunity". For "herd immunity", over 60% of the population would have to be immune to the virus.
Up to now, New City estimates that 20% of population have antibodies to the virus, in other regions (that were more successfull in controling the outbreak), only 1-5% of population might have antibodies.
So it will be a tightrope walk to re-open the economy while avoiding that the virus spreads uncontrolled.

The swedish model might be an example:
    They increased ICU & hospital capacities.
    They banned assemblies over 50 persons.
    They closed bars and clubs.
    They gave strict instructions to self-quarantine as soon as any kinds of symptoms appear (runny nose, cough, fever, feeling overly tired, etc). And people adhered to it very strictly.
    People who can work from home.
    People do not travel needlessly (although there is no ban, just a recommendation, but people listen to their government).(Travel over easter weekend went down by 90% as compared to normal years).
    People meet via social media, not so much in real life.
    There is a very high percentage of single person households in Sweden, no tradition of roommates.
    Population density is low in general...
The Swedes think this is viable for them in the long run.
they did not close schools, there was no lockdown.Shops stayed open, restaurants stayed open.
They could keep increase in daily registered cases under 10% (they are around 3-5%, which is viable for their health care system).
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giselle




 
 
 
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 10:41 am
mommy3b2c wrote:
If they opened the economy, people would wear masks and social distance. People are doing what they want because they’ve given up.

No they would not social distance. People refuse to social distance. Their kids must play with friends and they must socialize with other adults.
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amother




Jetblack
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 10:50 am
giselle wrote:
No they would not social distance. People refuse to social distance. Their kids must play with friends and they must socialize with other adults.


Social distancing is a wide spectrum and doesn't mean that your kids can't play with friends or that you can't socialize with people.
But yes, if that is how you define SD then people will be unwilling to not socialize with other people for months on end and people will give up.
If you give people reasonable measures to use to slow the spread then they will do them. If you give them unreasonable seemingly arbitrary measures, then people will loose their trust in you, give up, and do whatever they want.
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amother




Periwinkle
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 10:57 am
Ora in town wrote:
Look here: someone analysed which situations are particular susceptible to spreading the virus.
https://www.wral.com/coronavir.....4009/

One example: a choir rehearsal, 60 people, in a closed room, keeping minimal distance of 2 m. Neverthelesss, 75% of choir members got infected, virus spread from 1 to 45 (in 60).
Why?
When singing, we tend to release more virus, and also breathe in more deeply.
Not a good idea right now.


Like Shul.

Imamother: Everyone will die sooner or later anyhow.
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amother




Bisque
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 11:09 am
amother [ OP ] wrote:
Dr. Fauci: A second wave of coronavirus is inevitable later this year.

Imamothers: I don't see a second wave. It's all a conspiracy to keep my kids home.
Reality: Ummm, we're still in the first wave guys. Later this year means later this year, possibly fall or winter.


Who cares what Fauci says???
He is getting his paycheck, wears no mask, and laughs at us...you are a fool for believing a word from him.
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trixx




 
 
 
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 11:16 am
mommy3b2c wrote:
If they opened the economy, people would wear masks and social distance. People are doing what they want because they’ve given up.


Yes. And soon we will see crime skyrocket in Brooklyn as the weather gets nicer.
Much more of this and the people will (and should) revolt. We are a country of workers. You can't shut down the economy forever.
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amother




Peach
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 11:17 am
amother [ Jetblack ] wrote:
I think your conflating second wave with spike. Imamothers predicted a spike in cases after Pesach and certain levayas that attracted crowds which did not materialize. Just because someone says there was no spike in cases doesn't mean they think there won't be a second wave.

And again, no one, even Dr. Fauci, knows what the future holds.


It materialized in my town. Cases shot up after Passover and certain other events that happened. We are now #1 zip code in our city for cases! Yeah! Banging head
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amother




Burgundy
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 11:20 am
amother [ OP ] wrote:
Dr. Fauci: A second wave of coronavirus is inevitable later this year.

Imamothers: I don't see a second wave. It's all a conspiracy to keep my kids home.

Reality: Ummm, we're still in the first wave guys. Later this year means later this year, possibly fall or winter.


what's your logic? we lock in or wrap ourselves in bubble wrap forever?
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FranticFrummie




 
 
 
 

Post  Fri, May 15 2020, 11:26 am
Common sense:

There is still a lot we don't know. Maybe there are secrets being kept from us, maybe not. Maybe we can get it again, maybe not.

Use basic health precautions, keep calm, and carry on (cautiously).



Weekly World News:

The alien engineered virus is paving the way for the next phase of invasion. You will be assimilated - resistance is futile.
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amother




Pumpkin
 

Post  Mon, May 18 2020, 9:28 am
The swedish model might be an example:
    They increased ICU & hospital capacities.
    They banned assemblies over 50 persons.
    They closed bars and clubs.
    They gave strict instructions to self-quarantine as soon as any kinds of symptoms appear (runny nose, cough, fever, feeling overly tired, etc). And people adhered to it very strictly.
    People who can work from home.
    People do not travel needlessly (although there is no ban, just a recommendation, but people listen to their government).(Travel over easter weekend went down by 90% as compared to normal years).
    People meet via social media, not so much in real life.
    There is a very high percentage of single person households in Sweden, no tradition of roommates.
    Population density is low in general...
The Swedes think this is viable for them in the long run.
they did not close schools, there was no lockdown.Shops stayed open, restaurants stayed open.
They could keep increase in daily registered cases under 10% (they are around 3-5%, which is viable for their health care system).[/quote]

Sinde when do we want to learn anything from Sweden. They are noted for having a very high rate of suicide. Maybe they're attitudes shouldn't be followed as their whole social system is dysfunctional.
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Ora in town




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, May 18 2020, 9:36 am
amother [ Periwinkle ] wrote:
Like Shul.

Imamother: Everyone will die sooner or later anyhow.

I suppose that rebbe's Tish is off for a while...
And minyanim over 20 too...
Anyhow: outdoors is less of a problem, apparently...
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Ora in town




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, May 18 2020, 9:39 am
Quote:
= amother Pumpkin
Sinde when do we want to learn anything from Sweden. They are noted for having a very high rate of suicide. Maybe they're attitudes shouldn't be followed as their whole social system is dysfunctional.


איזהוא חכם הלומד מכול אדם

You can learn from anyone, either as an example or as a cautionary tale...
So you might learn from the Swedes how to cope with Corona and how to prevent suicide...
Your answer, on the other had, comes over as a little over-nationalist and obscurantist...
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Ora in town




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, May 18 2020, 9:57 am
amother [ Burgundy ] wrote:
what's your logic? we lock in or wrap ourselves in bubble wrap forever?

Avoid big assemblies long term (sports matches, Olympic games, World championships, Concerts, Opera, Theater, Rebbes Tish, big shul, big chassene, etc.)
Limit meetings to 20 persons long term
No need for vacations and summer camps...
Organise meetings outdoors rather than indoors
Limit clients in shop according to size.
Continue home office if possible, at least part-time.
Avoid public transport if you can (take bike)
Reopen schools, but reproduction rate will go up by 1.
Keep health care system ready for mounting number of emergencies.
Improve therapeutics to lower mortality.
Develop vaccine and administer widely.
Pray for the best...
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southernbubby




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, May 18 2020, 10:11 am
If the schools are discouraging students from playing together and socializing, as well as limiting the amount of time that they can attend, I would imagine that some parents will try to homeschool, possibly with another family or 2.
It will probably be more disruptive to learning if schools are on again, off again than if a small group of students learn together at home but allow normal interaction.
Personally, I favor letting other people be guinea pigs in the quest to know more about the virus. Please refer to my avatar to understand why.
Lately I have been putting my hopes on llama antibodies but those creatures are not being too cooperative.
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PinkFridge




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, May 18 2020, 12:26 pm
amother [ Periwinkle ] wrote:
Like

Imamother: Everyone will die sooner or later anyhow.


This was re singing in shul.
IIRC this was addressed in the guidelines - the idea is not to linger and I think singing is discouraged.
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amother




OP
 

Post  Mon, May 18 2020, 12:34 pm
OP here - I apologize if I offended anyone. I think we need to work on unity now, and acceptance.
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