Home
Log in / Sign Up
    Private Messages   Advanced Search   Rules   New User Guide   FAQ   Advertise   Contact Us  
Forum -> Coronavirus Health Questions
The second wave
1  2  Next



Post new topic   Reply to topic View latest: 24h 48h 72h

HelloG




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 9:43 pm
this question is for those who understand the medical suggestion that there'll be a second wave. not for saying it won't happen or conspiracy theories. thanks.

can someone please explain how this second wave works?
what are we basing our assumption on that there will be a second wave?
many aren't SD for a while now and there is no second wave
people are talking about a second wave in November. how would that happen? the virus dies now and then starts coming back in November?
what's the benefit of SD at this point? is it because we will be SD until November to avoid the second wave?
Back to top

ExtraCredit




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 9:46 pm
Hoping it’s all FAKE NEWS!
Back to top

amother
Cerulean


 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 9:52 pm
AmGold wrote:
this question is for those who understand the medical suggestion that there'll be a second wave. not for saying it won't happen or conspiracy theories. thanks.

can someone please explain how this second wave works?
what are we basing our assumption on that there will be a second wave?
many aren't SD for a while now and there is no second wave
people are talking about a second wave in November. how would that happen? the virus dies now and then starts coming back in November?
what's the benefit of SD at this point? is it because we will be SD until November to avoid the second wave?


I think its unknown. Know one knows 100% what will be . It might be possible it will come back but as of now I dont think anyone can know 100% what will be coming . Hard that we dont know , and we have our school closed as well , who knows for how long, its just uncertainty.
Back to top

amother
Wheat


 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 10:01 pm
I think the Spanish flue had a second wave. Maybe that's why they are predicting it.
Back to top

Hillery




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 10:02 pm
Some people have been predicting a second coming for centuries. I think we all know how likely that is.
Back to top

Rubber Ducky




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 10:06 pm
In the Spanish flu pandemic a century ago, the second wave was worst than the first. The flu started in the spring, died down during the summer, and then came back much more powerfully in the fall. This is one of the reasons many theorize that the coronavirus will be less of a problem in the summertime but will increase when the weather gets colder.

Link with graph: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandem.....s.htm
Back to top

southernbubby




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 10:10 pm
Resuming travel, commerce, education, etc could bring the virus to people who are not immune but I hope that Moshiach will be here. The virus could fizzle out.
Back to top

amother
Tangerine


 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 10:11 pm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/c.....815c3

Denying that a second wave is highly probable is dangerous. The wise thing to do now is to prepare for it and lay the groundwork for preventing an outbreak as intense as the first wave has been.

It is therefore crucial that countries ramp up their testing ability to a point where early detection of clusters is a given.

It is equally important that effective contact tracing departments are set up and running.

These actions can prevent a second serious outbreak.

The first wave caught many nations by surprise. The second wave will reveal who was smart enough to prepare and who was not.
Back to top

Learning




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 10:13 pm
I think we c’v will have a second wave when everyone will start going out of the quarantine. They predict that the people that were not exposed because they stayed home and have weak immune system will get sick c’v. The purpose was to not crowd the hospitals. When all the first wave people get out of the hospital the second wave will be in the hospital c’v

Last edited by Learning on Mon, May 25 2020, 10:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top

amother
Babyblue


 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 10:14 pm
It is based upon our understanding of cold and flu viruses. Just like there is "flu season" in the northern hemisphere with a different flu season in the southern hemisphere. Since so manh people are vulnerable to infection, it is likely (over 90% according to current estimates) that the virus will return to the northern hemisphere in the fall (after its expected wave in the southern hemisphere which should occur during our summer). IYH well be more prepared with testing and isolation as well as medicines.
Back to top

Mommyg8




 
 
    
 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 10:33 pm
It's not a theory, it's a fact- generally infectious diseases come in waves. It's been that way in the past so we have to assume that it will be that way in the future too. Hopefully this time it won't happen, but it's best to prepare for nothing and look foolish then not prepare.... and....
Back to top

amother
Lilac


 

Post Mon, May 25 2020, 11:53 pm
amother [ Babyblue ] wrote:
It is based upon our understanding of cold and flu viruses. Just like there is "flu season" in the northern hemisphere with a different flu season in the southern hemisphere. Since so manh people are vulnerable to infection, it is likely (over 90% according to current estimates) that the virus will return to the northern hemisphere in the fall (after its expected wave in the southern hemisphere which should occur during our summer). IYH well be more prepared with testing and isolation as well as medicines.


Can u explain in even simplery language Plz? Thx
Back to top

Frumme




 
 
    
 

Post Tue, May 26 2020, 12:05 am
amother [ Lilac ] wrote:
Can u explain in even simplery language Plz? Thx


Virus cases usually lessen considerably in the summer months since it's too hot for the virus to survive long in high temperatures. Conversely, bacterial infections and the like increase during the summer months because they thrive in the heat.

Basically what the poster before you was saying is that the Earth has two hemispheres, one in the north and one in the south. It's split at the equator, the middle of the earth. The seasons are reversed in the hemispheres. When it is summer in the US, it is winter in Australia and Argentina. Likewise, when it is winter in the northern hemisphere, it is summer in the southern hemisphere.

So if the virus cases are lowering in the US in part due to the change in weather (it's getting warmer here), it's very possible that case numbers will rise in countries that are getting colder. Then when the seasons begin to change again, the virus won't have disappeared, but just changed location, and might reappear in the US when it starts to get colder again.

Does that make sense?
Back to top

soap suds




 
 
    
 

Post Tue, May 26 2020, 1:55 am
Hillery wrote:
Some people have been predicting a second coming for centuries. I think we all know how likely that is.
LOL LOL LOL
Back to top

Ora in town




 
 
    
 

Post Tue, May 26 2020, 4:28 am
AmGold wrote:
this question is for those who understand the medical suggestion that there'll be a second wave. not for saying it won't happen or conspiracy theories. thanks.

can someone please explain how this second wave works?
what are we basing our assumption on that there will be a second wave?
many aren't SD for a while now and there is no second wave
people are talking about a second wave in November. how would that happen? the virus dies now and then starts coming back in November?
what's the benefit of SD at this point? is it because we will be SD until November to avoid the second wave?

It depends on the reproduction number.
On average, 1 carrier of Covid 19 infects 3 persons.
So if you don't take social distancing measures, the number of infected persons will double in three days.
With social distancing, this number yould be reduced. now, on average, the number of infected people increases by 1% in the USA. As soon as you relax social distancing, it will go back up, and might go back up to the 20-30% it was in the beginning.

Now, it might be, that if 20% of the population were already infected, it won't go back up to 25% per day, but only to 20% per day. This is a calculation you would have to make. On the other hand, New York has some particular risk factors which might accelerate virus spread (dense population, subway system, etc.)

Currently, in Sweden, with moderate social distancing measures, they are around 5% increase per day, and that's sustainable for their health system. But Sweden had 10x the death toll of their neighbours Danemark and Norway who took more stringend measures.

The measures in Sweden are: no going to work with any symptoms of cold or flue, homeoffice if possible, bars closed, restaurants open, no assemblies over 50 persons, schools open, people self-limit (easter trafic went down by 90%)-

So it might be that the swedish solution could be a possibility in less densely populated regions of the USA...
Back to top

amother
Azure


 

Post Tue, May 26 2020, 5:35 am
fyi the word is "stringent" (probably was a typo)
Back to top

DrMom




 
 
    
 

Post Tue, May 26 2020, 5:39 am
Ora in town wrote:

On average, 1 carrier of Covid 19 infects 3 persons.
So if you don't take social distancing measures, the number of infected persons will double in three days.

I may be a little thick today, but I don't think I am following this calculation. Aren't there some assumptions that we need to make to make this calculation?

Like: How long does it take this typical infected person infect 3 other people? A day? A week?

Scratching Head
Back to top

imasinger




 
 
    
 

Post Tue, May 26 2020, 6:48 am
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/52.....-wave

This video explains the concerns nicely.

1. Many, many epidemics have come in waves, from the bubonic plague to the swine flu. Particularly the more contagious ones.

2. Some have not, like SARS, and MERS. But those were less infectious than this virus.

3. We know that the virus spreads primarily by airborne droplets that can travel around six feet on average. Although some labs have shown it lasts on surfaces, or can become aerosolized into particles that carry further, it looks like the primary problem is these droplets from an infected person coughing or sneezing.

4. Even in hardest hit places, statistics are showing about 20% of the population carrying antibodies. There are plenty of people left to get sick.

5. It looks like there is less spread in crowds outside than inside.

6. There's a lot we don't know about the novel coronavirus. Right now, epidemiologists note that warmer weather appears to slow the spread by about 20%. Social distancing measures seem to help significantly, though exact statistics are hard to find at this point. Whether we'll develop an effective vaccine quickly. Length of time for antibodies to protect someone who has had it. Whether the virus mutates significantly, and what that mutation would look like.

So basically, based on what we now know about this virus and epidemics in general, it's reasonable to think ahead in this fashion. But of course, there are many possible game changers -- for good, or for bad. Until we know more, it makes more sense to keep the possibility of a second wave on the table.

DrMom, from the tracing that's been done, it looks like the R0 number is based on an average. It stands to reason that sometimes, a super spreader can infect tens or hundreds in one day, while others might infect a few over a week or two.

I personally don't know if I had it, and am not paying for antibody testing and haven't seen it offered for free in my area. But if I got it before shutdown, I was for sure more likely to spread it than I would be now, because the world is a different place.
Back to top

amother
Aubergine


 

Post Tue, May 26 2020, 6:55 am
I work in the medical field in a hard hit area. We’ve been seeing decreasing numbers for weeks. Just over the past week or so, when more people are becoming lax, I saw a small increase in my number of covid patients. Colleagues saw the same. It’s just anecdotal from one outpatient practice, but I’m scared the numbers will surge now that everyone seems to be letting everything go.
Back to top

nchr




 
 
    
 

Post Tue, May 26 2020, 8:00 am
So I want to also add to the discussion that current data suggests the R0 is well below 1; however, with large indoor gatherings such as in houses of worship it can be a super spread situation where the R0 can easily exceed 50 or even 100. This is why it is so important that, although deemed essential, our shuls need to follow certain guidelines and definitely limit participation (especially of large crowds). To compare that to other viruses, something like polio became well managed with more advanced wastewater systems but unmanageable in swimming pools.
Back to top
Page 1 of 2 1  2  Next Recent Topics




Post new topic   Reply to topic    Forum -> Coronavirus Health Questions

Related Topics Replies Last Post
ISO Second hand lawnmower
by amother
1 Sun, Mar 17 2024, 10:05 am View last post
second hand bike stores
by amother
1 Sun, Mar 17 2024, 9:37 am View last post
Anyone else start books from the second chapter?
by amother
9 Sun, Mar 03 2024, 6:20 pm View last post
ISO Second hand/ give away furniture- from where?
by amother
0 Thu, Feb 29 2024, 12:56 pm View last post
The Wave Long Branch
by amother
7 Mon, Feb 26 2024, 8:57 pm View last post