Can't get away from herd immunity?

ora_43

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:13 pm

Nice straw man you've got there, but the point of restrictions on movement was never to eliminate the virus completely. In fact, the people behind Israel's coronavirus policy were very open about saying that the virus is probably here to stay.

The point of restricting movement was, and is, to:

- Keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.

- Contain the virus so that it doesn't spread to extremely vulnerable populations.

- Contain the virus so that people can live life somewhat normally, without being afraid that every trip to the store or the office could knock them out of commission for several weeks (or worse).

- Not let tens of thousands of people die for the sake of a 'herd immunity' that may or may not exist.

amother

Beige

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:16 pm

CiCi wrote:

Please show me where I said that I'd like that to happen. Where did I say that?! Why would I want that? I believe it's a part of life with any virus. I believe it already happened in NY. You can dispute my beliefs but you don't have to be viscous about it.

Here:

CiCi wrote:

Lockdowns don't help in the long run. The virus needs to run its course because the only why it recedes is through herd immunity.

The virus had spread in Israeli schools.

CiCi wrote:

I always said it doesn't work and now you see it didn't work in Israel. We don't live in bubbles.

I believe it's like the flu. Even if it comes back every year it's still not so infectious as covid-19 was and not so potent because we are all somewhat immune to it.

CiCi wrote:

The heimishe communities in NY had it and got over it. It is extremely unfortunate that many people died but half of the people who died did so because of neglect, no proper care and no family members around them.

Many continued to be worried until the rioters took care of the worrying about covid-19. It is here to stay and it's ridiculous to think that we will always be in lockdown.

Bottom line is, you think lockdown is ridiculous and doesn't help in the long run, and you want things to open back up so that "the virus can run its course" because "the only way it recedes is through herd immunity."

In addition, you "always said it [lockdown] doesn't work" and the spike in cases in Israel is now your ammunition: "...now you see it didn't work in Israel. We don't live in bubbles."

The "outbreak" in Israeli schools is now "proof" that you are "right," in your claim that lockdown is "ridiculous" and "doesn't work," especially in light of the fact that "the heimishe communities in NY had it and got over it."

CiCi

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:16 pm

ora_43 wrote:

Excuse me!!! Where did I say I want thousands to die?! I said I don't believe so many people died from the disease! I said half they died of neglect!

CiCi

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:19 pm

amother [ Beige ] wrote:

I said lockdowns are ridiculous? Where did I say that? I said it doesnt help in the long run. I believe in short term lockdowns, but I never said I don't believe in lockdowns, period.

I believe the virus will run its course, not that it has to. I'm not Hashem, I don't do things. I stated my opinion. Everyone can state theirs as well. There's no need to be rude about that.

Teomima

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:27 pm

A: A lot of people throw around the term "herd immunity" without really understanding what it means. There is no herd immunity against this virus, not now nor any time in the foreseeable future. There is no vaccine. There is no confirmed immunity for those previously infected. Herd immunity usually requires both those factors to happen, and even then it's not a dependable measure of security. If that were the case we wouldn't have had that horrible measles outbreak last year, or polio a few years before that. Again, there is no herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2.

B: For those criticizing the lockdown, reopening, and latest cases in Israel, remember the Israeli approach was not about preventing all outbreaks, rather about flattening the curve. And by golly it worked. With a population of nearly 9 million people, including the 10th most densely populated city on the planet, and we've had under 300 deaths. I have no doubt Hashem has had a hand in protecting עם ישראל.

CiCi

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:30 pm

Success10 wrote:

Wow, everyone here seems to be lacking some sleep today. Really shocking language on this thread. I'm not sure why people can't just respectfully disagree.

Thank you!! People made it seem like I want people to die. I just stated my opinion regarding herd immunity which I believed happened in NY. It's my belief that a virus cannot be contained longterm and if they would care about life here like they do in Israel with hospital care they provide in Israel the death rate would be half.

People have a right to disagree in a respectful manner.

..I'm thinking now that maybe thse who responded rudely fear death if I say that I believe the virus will spread. I never had that fear even before and while I had it, so I didn't think of people getting scared but maybe that's a reason why they responded like this.

ora_43

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:42 pm

CiCi wrote:

Excuse me!!! Where did I say I want thousands to die?! I said I don't believe so many people died from the disease! I said half they died of neglect!

Take a deep breath, and reread my post. I did not accuse you of wanting people to die. I do not suspect you of wanting people to die.

I simply said that Israel is not willing to sacrifice lives for "herd immunity" without so much as being sure that it's possible. (Let alone being sure that the only way to get there is to let people get sick now, as opposed to waiting for a vaccine and/or a promising treatment.)

As for the number of deaths, I'm sure you're aware that covid19 has hit many, many parts of the world outside New York. Including Israel. Without getting into whether New Yorkers, specifically, were dying of neglect vs of the virus, the death rate among covid19 patients in Israel is well over 1%, and the death rate among people admitted to the ICU in Israel is frankly terrifying. There is reason to believe that in Israel, if the virus spread unchecked, tens of thousands of people could die.

ora_43

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:43 pm

CiCi wrote:

Thank you for hurting me to the core. My mother is in the hospital with cancer and just two days after she was admitted she went from being fully coherent and texting us that she's not getting care to being unresponsive. Yes, her brain shut down from feeling helpless because otherwise her vitals are totally stable. How can you be so mean, wow.

I'm so sorry to hear this. I hope you see a yeshua very soon.

CiCi

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:46 pm

ora_43 wrote:

I hear you. It makes sense.

Success10

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:46 pm

Listen, your point is solid. You can't keep people in lockdown forever. You can't, it's not an option. It can't even wait until a vaccine is available. It will all be far too late by then. A lot of the madness going on now in the US is because of people being cooped up, or unoccupied for so long.

But it's really unclear if herd immunity can be achieved with this virus. All viruses provide some level of immunity, otherwise you'd never get better. But if the immunity only lasts a few months, then most of the population would need to catch it within a few months in order to achieve that. Even in frum NY, you really just can't prove that herd immunity was achieved. And even if it was, they'd have to be cut off from the world to maintain it.

amother

Beige

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:52 pm

Success10 wrote:

Experts said several months ago that a full lockdown - no one leaves home for any reason other than the ICU - for three weeks would probably be enough.

Lockdown isn't sustainable long-term, this is true.

But the US' lockdown is far longer because it was never done properly to begin with. That is why it's not working.

amother

Beige

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 4:59 pm

Success10 wrote:

So Cici's point was that Israel had a "proper" lockdown, perhaps the best and most thorough lockdown in the world. And it still didn't eliminate the virus. So she's just arguing that if that didn't work, then what's the point of even trying anymore? Might as well open up.

If there hadn't been chagigot since we started reopening, and we had kept the lockdown for just a couple more weeks, we probably could've eliminated it.

But we didn't, because we were too impatient.

Success10

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 5:01 pm

amother [ Beige ] wrote:

If there hadn't been chagigot since we started reopening, and we had kept the lockdown for just a couple more weeks, we probably could've eliminated it.

But we didn't, because we were too impatient.

I know, I also feel like we were so close. We'll never know for sure. But honestly, to maintain it, we would have had to keep our borders closed indefinitely.

CiCi

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 5:13 pm

Success10 wrote:

Yes, that's basically my point.

Scientists are saying the virus cannot be eliminated and it will always be with us so how can it be prevented on a continuous basis? I do believe in herd immunity to the point where it will be less contagious and fatal because of some sort of herd immunity like all viruses have since we are somewhat immune to them.

Teomima

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 5:16 pm

Success10 wrote:

Because the point wasn't to eliminate the virus. Quite the opposite, Israeli leaders are very clear about the virus being here to stay.

But it was about flattening the curve. It was about controlling the rate of infection to a manageable amount. To be able to keep our medical staff and hospital resources from being overwhelmed. To better protect our elderly and other high risk populations from exposure. And to educate the public about what proper lockdown is so in case things ever get so bad again that we need to, we know how to do it.

If you go on the Israeli Health Ministry's website, you can trace the steps of known cases. The rates are so manageable right now we can track the movement of the virus and individually self quarantine as necessary.

This is not a black-or-white situation. Our options are not only total lockdown or full-blown population exposure. There's a happy-medium that, best as we can tell so far, seems not only pretty effective, but also relatively sustainable long-term. We just need to accept this new reality, because it's here to stay for quite a while.

amother

Coffee

Mon, Jun 01 2020, 5:17 pm

Success10 wrote:

Who said it was about eliminating it?

They wanted to get it under control.
What's happening there now is still not proof it's out of control.
Look at what went on in NY - that was out of control.