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Can't get away from herd immunity?
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 01 2020, 5:33 pm
Success10 wrote:
Listen, your point is solid. You can't keep people in lockdown forever. You can't, it's not an option. It can't even wait until a vaccine is available. It will all be far too late by then. A lot of the madness going on now in the US is because of people being cooped up, or unoccupied for so long.

But it's really unclear if herd immunity can be achieved with this virus. All viruses provide some level of immunity, otherwise you'd never get better. But if the immunity only lasts a few months, then most of the population would need to catch it within a few months in order to achieve that. Even in frum NY, you really just can't prove that herd immunity was achieved. And even if it was, they'd have to be cut off from the world to maintain it.


I shouldve made opening post clearer. I didn't mean total immunity like never getting it once you have had it. I agree with you that it's more like a lower tier immunity like to all other viruses and it will not have such a severe impact as getting exposed to Covid-19 the first time. I believe that there is some sort of immunity. If herd immunity does not exist then the consequences of another wave can be equally as bad as this round. Unfortunately this was not a one time thing, scientists are saying that its here to stay.


Last edited by CiCi on Tue, Jun 02 2020, 1:50 am; edited 2 times in total
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amother




Gray
 

Post  Mon, Jun 01 2020, 5:47 pm
elisheva25 wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds%3famp


This is three weeks old. That ages ago for the coronavirus situation, a lot has changed since. Even Sweden is now launching a probe to re-evaluate their responses.

This is this weeks' news:
https://www.wired.co.uk/articl.....unitySweden's Coronavirus experiment has well and truly failed

https://nypost.com/2020/06/01/.....down/
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amother




Gray
 

Post  Mon, Jun 01 2020, 5:53 pm
CiCi wrote:
I shouldve made opening post clearer. I didn't mean total immunity like never getting it once you have had it. I agree with you that it's more like a lower tier immunity like to all other viruses and it will not have such a severe impact as getting exposed to Covid-19 the first time. At this point I can't prove immunity but I'd rather not think of covid-19 having such a bad impact every time it hits us. Because unfortunately this was not a one time thing, all scientists are saying that its here to stay.



All scientists? No one really knows much yet. It's amazing to sit back and watch how the laymen have suddenly become the know-it-all experts, while the true scientists are still struggling to find common ground.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 01 2020, 6:26 pm
amother [ Gray ] wrote:
All scientists? No one really knows much yet. It's amazing to sit back and watch how the laymen have suddenly become the know-it-all experts, while the true scientists are still struggling to find common ground.


Yes, all whom I've heard talking about this virus, including Fauci, said their will be more waves of the virus coming again. And scientists say once an virus comes into existence it continues to exist. We may get efficient vaccines and medication to treat it eventually, but the virus itself will not dissapear.

https://www.washingtonpost.com.....emic/


Last edited by CiCi on Tue, Jun 02 2020, 1:51 am; edited 2 times in total
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OutofTown Girl




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 01 2020, 9:22 pm
I'm in NYC and wondering about the herd immunity thing. What are numbers now of NYers who tested positive for antibodies? Last I heard (a couple of weeks back, which is ages in Covid-times) we were around 20%. Is the percentage higher now? And is that number anywhere near what we'd need for herd immunity?

As I've posted elsewhere, I was plenty exposed to the virus Purim-time, but tested negative for antibodies. So I'm still a threat to public health...
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 01 2020, 10:41 pm
OutofTown Girl wrote:
I'm in NYC and wondering about the herd immunity thing. What are numbers now of NYers who tested positive for antibodies? Last I heard (a couple of weeks back, which is ages in Covid-times) we were around 20%. Is the percentage higher now? And is that number anywhere near what we'd need for herd immunity?

As I've posted elsewhere, I was plenty exposed to the virus Purim-time, but tested negative for antibodies. So I'm still a threat to public health...


It's not about numbers at this point because not all the tests are valid. Also, I can't understand how they can give a percentage against the general population if not everyone got tested yet.
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amother




Beige
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 1:11 am
Success10 wrote:
I know, I also feel like we were so close. We'll never know for sure. But honestly, to maintain it, we would have had to keep our borders closed indefinitely.

Well our lockdown also wasn't complete in the first place, otherwise we'd be past this completely.

About the borders, we still can't afford to reopen them. It will send the number of infections skyrocketing. And will we treat all the tourists?
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amother




Beige
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 1:18 am
CiCi wrote:
I shouldve made opening post clearer. I didn't mean total immunity like never getting it once you have had it. I agree with you that it's more like a lower tier immunity like to all other viruses and it will not have such a severe impact as getting exposed to Covid-19 the first time. At this point I can't prove immunity but I'd rather not think of covid-19 having such a bad impact every time it hits us. Because unfortunately this was not a one time thing, scientists are saying that its here to stay.

Unfortunately what we'd rather think or rather not think really isn't important in this discussion...
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youngishbear




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 1:34 am
CiCi wrote:
It's not about numbers at this point because not all the tests are valid. Also, I can't understand how they can give a percentage against the general population if not everyone got tested yet.


There's a branch of mathematics called statistics, and people trained in this field can use a relatively small sample size to extrapolate estimates for the general population.

Have researchers released any updates?
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 1:44 am
amother [ Beige ] wrote:
Unfortunately what we'd rather think or rather not think really isn't important in this discussion...


I meant to say as I did in all almost previous posts, I believe that we have immunity.

If what I believe to be the case regarding herd immunity is wrong then the consequences of another wave will be as severe as the original pandemic. Scientists and health experts, including Fauci, predict there will be more waves of the virus. But I don't see the point in speculating the worst.


Last edited by CiCi on Tue, Jun 02 2020, 2:26 am; edited 2 times in total
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tigerwife




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 1:48 am
youngishbear wrote:
There's a branch of mathematics called statistics, and people trained in this field can use a relatively small sample size to extrapolate estimates for the general population.

Have researchers released any updates?


The problem with statistics here is that the starting numbers are very flawed. So many people got sick and couldn’t/didn’t want to get tested. Then, antibody tests were introduced with a 30% failure rate. It’s hard to believe any number or percentage that comes up. I just don’t see how it is possible to prove accuracy.

Here’s an article about people who claimed to have had a very similar virus to COVID19 before it officially came to the US.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/c.....os=12

My question is, what happened to the wildfire spread? One interviewee was literally a dental hygienist treating patients while ill. Was it a different strain, or are people rewriting history? If they did end up with antibodies, does that help if there are such different strains and mutations? The whole saga is extremely humbling to scientists.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 1:56 am
tigerwife wrote:
The problem with statistics here is that the starting numbers are very flawed. So many people got sick and couldn’t/didn’t want to get tested. Then, antibody tests were introduced with a 30% failure rate. It’s hard to believe any number or percentage that comes up. I just don’t see how it is possible to prove accuracy.

Here’s an article about people who claimed to have had a very similar virus to COVID19 before it officially came to the US.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/c.....os=12

My question is, what happened to the wildfire spread? One interviewee was literally a dental hygienist treating patients while ill. Was it a different strain, or are people rewriting history? If they did end up with antibodies, does that help if there are such different strains and mutations? The whole saga is extremely humbling to scientists.


I totally agree with your entire post, especially the sentence I bolded.
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Aylat




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 3:10 am
amother [ Beige ] wrote:
How can you have herd immunity with a virus that you can catch again after just 6 months?

Lockdowns, if they are complete, can be over within a month or so. Whoever has it will give it to their family members, and it will have nowhere else to go. No one can get infected anymore. Done.

But no one wants to go that route.


No essential workers, no doctor appointments or hospital treatment, no grocery shopping or pharmacy pick-ups? Not possible.
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amother




Beige
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 3:19 am
Aylat wrote:
No essential workers, no doctor appointments or hospital treatment, no grocery shopping or pharmacy pick-ups? Not possible.

No nothing other than doctors and hospitals. Grocery shopping and pharmacy pickup would be delivered to the door, which you open after the deliveryman leaves.

It's possible, but it is excruciating for the population.
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Aylat




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 3:26 am
elisheva25 wrote:
I agree with you , 100% . We need to achieve herd immunity . And move on. But not everyone agrees. To keep going to lockdown, like they are dong in Israel is crazy and to keep having a non stop lockdown like we have in NY is also crazy.
99.9 % of the population recovers from this virus with no issues .


Completely inaccurate.
6 million + cases, well over three hundred thousand deaths = 5% mortality.

https://www.worldometers.info/.....1?%20
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Aylat




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 3:27 am
amother [ Beige ] wrote:
No nothing other than doctors and hospitals. Grocery shopping and pharmacy pickup would be delivered to the door, which you open after the deliveryman leaves.

It's possible, but it is excruciating for the population.


Then the delivery man is exposed to the grocery workers who are exposed to each other. No lockdown can be 100%.
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amother




Beige
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 3:45 am
Aylat wrote:
Then the delivery man is exposed to the grocery workers who are exposed to each other. No lockdown can be 100%.

If few enough people are out they can all wear hazmat suits.
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Teomima




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 3:51 am
amother [ Beige ] wrote:
No nothing other than doctors and hospitals. Grocery shopping and pharmacy pickup would be delivered to the door, which you open after the deliveryman leaves.

It's possible, but it is excruciating for the population.

It isn't possible. There are so many people that have to be out and about for that chain too happen. Let's say food. It's not just the delivery person. It's the employee who packs the order. The other person who stocks the shelves. The warehouse employee that removes it from the truck. The truck driver. The farmer. The food manufacturer. Etc etc.

What you describe above is what Israel did. We didn't leave the house for two months (other than dh, an essential worker). We got everything delivered. It was left by the door. Doing this saved countless lives, but it did not, and could not, eradicate the virus entirely.
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ora_43




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 3:57 am
Aylat wrote:
Completely inaccurate.
6 million + cases, well over three hundred thousand deaths = 5% mortality.

https://www.worldometers.info/.....1?%20

Agree that 99.9% is completely inaccurate, but OTOH it's also inaccurate to compare known cases to known deaths, since there are so many unknown cases and unknown deaths.

I think the closest we can get to knowing the mortality rate is to look at countries with fairly thorough virus tracking, and see what the mortality looks like there.

Eg Israel (1.65%), Norway (2.79%), or South Korea (2.36%).

Even that only gives a partial picture, since a. these countries presumably also have missed cases, b. populations vary, and the countries with high testing rates tend to - not coincidentally - also have populations that are above-average in terms of general health.

If you compare the 'excess mortality' in NYC this year to the estimated number of cases based on antibody testing (over 2 million), the mortality rate looks more like 1.2%.

I would guess that ultimately the best estimates are going to put mortality at somewhere in the 1%-2% range. (Which is still quite high compared to other widespread contagious illnesses.)
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ora_43




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 02 2020, 4:01 am
tigerwife wrote:
The problem with statistics here is that the starting numbers are very flawed. So many people got sick and couldn’t/didn’t want to get tested. Then, antibody tests were introduced with a 30% failure rate. It’s hard to believe any number or percentage that comes up. I just don’t see how it is possible to prove accuracy.

It's never going to be possible. OTOH it isn't possible for any other illness, either. It's all just estimates.

So statisticians can do whatever they can to get around the issues - using "excess mortality" instead of confirmed covid19 deaths, using antibody test results instead of reported cases, looking specifically at harder-hit areas to get around the testing inaccuracy, etc - and we can get numbers that at least allow us to get a general sense. And to compare this to other illnesses. How much more fatal is covid19 compared to measles, compares to the flu, etc.
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