Masks may be the key determinant of the COVID 19 curve

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amother

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 9:55 am

“We conclude that wearing a face mask in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent inter-human transmission. This inexpensive practice, in conjunction with social distancing and other procedures, is the most likely opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/a.....ests/

DrMom

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 10:04 am

The curve used in this report compares early pandemic case increases and then later pandemic case increases once masks had been made mandatory. But perhaps other things changed then too. Unless I am missing some deeper analysis here, the methodology seems pretty shaky.

I would be interested in seeing side-by-side comparisons of two populations, similar except for the use of masks from the get-go.

(Not trying to diss mask-wearing; I just thought the analysis seemed pretty weak.)

trixx

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 10:16 am

Just a short while ago they said masks were useless and discouraged us from wearing them.
So if you'll excuse any skepticism or distrust I have in any of our elected officials or government health organizations...

Ora in town

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 10:28 am

trixx wrote:

It was indeed a big mistake to discourage the public from wearing masks in February. The chief virologist of South Korea expressed his surprise at those statmenets back then. He was right. South Korea wore masks and contained the virus without lockdown, with only 280 fatalites, 5 in a million. New york citiy has over 2000 fatalities per 1 million inhabitants.

The main problem with Covid19, the main reason for its huge spread is that there are many asymptomatic carriers and that it is spread through droplet infection, through the air.

Sars 1 was much more deadly than this Sars2. But it could be eradicated in humans after 10'000 cases, more or less. Why? Because people became infectious only a few days after onset of the symptoms. So you knew who had it, could isolate those persons, and the virus (which also spread through droplet infection from human to human) went away.

So given the virus spreads through droplet infection.
Given you don't know who is infectuous.
Given infectuous people don't know they are spreading the virus.

The best protection is to keep people from spreading the virus around them, by wearing a mask that will catch the droplets with the virus before they get into the air

A surgical mask has this property.

So you wear a mask, for the case where you have the virus, but don't know it, so that you will not spread it around you.

If you are at risk of dying from the virus when you catch it, because you belong to the risk group, you should protect yourself from catching the virus.
If you work in an environment where you know that the virus is present, you should protect yourself from the virus.

In this case you wear a well-fitted N95 mask, that will prevent the virus from entering your respiratory tract, even if it is around you.

fleetwood

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 10:39 am

trixx wrote:

People keep making this point. However, that was 3 months ago. For over 2 months everyone is saying it's important to wear a mask. The phras,"A short while "ago is just not true. Three months ago we didn't know what we know now or even in April.

Last edited by fleetwood on Thu, Jun 18 2020, 10:57 am; edited 1 time in total

tweety1

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 10:42 am

trixx wrote:

You said it! Tnx for taking the guts and saying what's right without going anon. You couldn't have said it any better!!

tweety1

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 10:44 am

fleetwood wrote:

People keep making this point. However, that was 3 months ago. For over 2 months everyone is saying it's important to wear a mask. A short while ago is just not true. Three months ago we didn't know what we know now or even in April.

I read an article not more than 2 weeks ago saying masks are useless. They keep on changing their mind. There's one thing we know "that they don't know anything"

4sure

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 10:50 am

I would assume testing and tracing works better. Dunno just my humble two cents.

amother

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:26 am

In my mind it’s not debatable. I’m not going to debate. But people who won’t wear masks because they distrust the government or claim they are better scientists than the scientists, are the reason COVID will not go away.

amother

Mauve

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:32 am

4sure wrote:

I would assume testing and tracing works better. Dunno just my humble two cents.

This is what South Korea did mainly . The masks aside.

Ora in town

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:32 am

4sure wrote:

I would assume testing and tracing works better. Dunno just my humble two cents.

You need both.
South Korea did both.

For testing and tracing, you need huge administrative capacities... The number of daily new infections in the USA at the moment is so high that the administration does not have the necessary capacities to trace all the contacts of every new case and quarantine them.

Last edited by Ora in town on Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:34 am; edited 1 time in total

#BestBubby

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:33 am

trixx wrote:

This!

amother

Mauve

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:34 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Wow I thought Hashem is the one to decide to finish the virus not people? ? If you would say our hishtadlus I agree but this?????

Ora in town

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:35 am

#BestBubby wrote:

This!

amother

Pewter

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:36 am

fleetwood wrote:

they said it not because they didn’t know, but because they wanted to hoard masks for healthcare workers. It’s the lack of transparency that led to distrust.

#BestBubby

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 11:36 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Per Scientists, Masks and Social Distancing will not STOP the spread of coronavirus -
it will only SLOW it down I.e. "flatten the curve".

Only thing that will stop coronavirus is herd immunity - when most of the population had it and
has immunity.

Ora in town

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 12:06 pm

#BestBubby wrote:

So you want to kill 0,3% of the US population to achieve herd immunity?
It's just the old and the sickly, anyway?
Are you that cynical?

South Korea really could contain the virus thanks to masks, testing and tracing...

It's worth the effort to save lives..

OBnursemom

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 12:10 pm

#BestBubby wrote:

Peer reviewed articles are required for such an assertion. Which scientists? Name names.

#BestBubby

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 12:11 pm

Ora in town wrote:

The elderly and sick will take precautions (wear masks, no shopping) until herd immunity is achieved.

USA population is 7 times S Korea and our land mass is even greater with people and goods being shipped from coast to coast and much more international travel + open borders.

SixOfWands

Thu, Jun 18 2020, 12:14 pm

4sure wrote:

I would assume testing and tracing works better. Dunno just my humble two cents.

To be effective, testing and tracing requires people to have tracers on cell phones that are always on. So we know that you wanted into Kosher Store on June 18 at 2 pm, at the same time as Fruma, who tested positive. You would then have to be quarantined -- along with anyone you came in contact with -- for 2 weeks. Quarantine. Not what people are whining about now. You don't leave your house at all. Not for groceries. Not to take out trash. Not because your kids are antsy. Until you have 2 negative tests.

That sounds easier to you than putting on a mask to reduce transmission when you're less than 6 feet outdoors, or when you're in a store?

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