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Second Wave is Here?
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FranticFrummie




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 5:03 am
Texas has reported over 3,000 NEW cases of Corona, and the entire state is on lockdown.

Oregon is on semi-lockdown, with very restricted movement allowed outside the home.

Washington is on a similar semi-lockdown, and masks are required at all times outside the home. I don't know about other areas around the US, these were just the headlines that came up on my news feed in the last hour.

Israel reported 300 NEW cases since the schools were opened, 4 schools have closed, and the ventilator wards are getting near capacity again.

There are not enough technicians trained in operating and maintaining a ventilator and it's patient. Each ventilator requires 2 doctors and 10 nurses per patient. Corona hotels may be opening up again.

The IDF is putting very strict measures on it's soldiers. Anyone returning from leave has to be on a 5 day isolation, and then a 25 day general quarantine before being allowed back into active duty. Only 10 soldiers are allowed to gather in a room, and they have to keep 2 meters apart. Outdoors they can only have groups of up to 100, and still keep the 2 meter rule.

The fine for not wearing a mask has gone from 200 shekels to 500 shekels.

I don't think things are "relaxing". I don't see the virus "weakening". I see a curve that is going back up to previous levels, albeit at a slower pace. The trend is definitely not going down the way it was before.
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amother
Puce


 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 5:35 am
Are you talking about Israel or America?

Because Israel may be having a second wave but America is still in its first wave.
It may have peaked in NY but NY is only one state out of 50.
Oregan never had a first wave so this can't be a second wave.

I haven't seen any news articles about this but I have seen drs and nurses on twitter from texas and Georgia talking about how they are over capacity in hospitals (not verified anyone can say anything online but....)
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etky




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 5:47 am
FranticFrummie wrote:
Texas has reported over 3,000 NEW cases of Corona, and the entire state is on lockdown.

Oregon is on semi-lockdown, with very restricted movement allowed outside the home.

Washington is on a similar semi-lockdown, and masks are required at all times outside the home. I don't know about other areas around the US, these were just the headlines that came up on my news feed in the last hour.

Israel reported 300 NEW cases since the schools were opened, 4 schools have closed, and the ventilator wards are getting near capacity again.

There are not enough technicians trained in operating and maintaining a ventilator and it's patient. Each ventilator requires 2 doctors and 10 nurses per patient. Corona hotels may be opening up again.

The IDF is putting very strict measures on it's soldiers. Anyone returning from leave has to be on a 5 day isolation, and then a 25 day general quarantine before being allowed back into active duty. Only 10 soldiers are allowed to gather in a room, and they have to keep 2 meters apart. Outdoors they can only have groups of up to 100, and still keep the 2 meter rule.

The fine for not wearing a mask has gone from 200 shekels to 500 shekels.

I don't think things are "relaxing". I don't see the virus "weakening". I see a curve that is going back up to previous levels, albeit at a slower pace. The trend is definitely not going down the way it was before.


FF, where is your information about the education system in Israel and about the IDF from?
It's very imprecise.
There are almost 800 students and teacher who have contracted Corona since schools reopened.
At the moment 216 educational institutions are closed and almost 22,000 students/staff/teachers are in quarantine.
The information about the measures that the IDF has taken regarding soldiers returning from leave is wrong too although in the past few days things have become stricter. There is a return to the capsule system and soldiers are being told to prepare for a 30 day stay at the base if this becomes necessary.
BTW there are currently 83 cases in the IDF (318 since the virus began) and almost 4000 IDF personnel in quarantine.
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Ora in town




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 5:57 am
I suppose this "second wave" is still the first wave...

Those states that were spared until now became light-headed, people did stupid things, so the virus has new occasions to spread...

I would not be too worried about Israel. The fact that they are finding "so many" cases (although it's almost nothing compared to Florida or California) is actually a good thing: this shows that they are on top of tracking and tracing...

So on the one hand, they have to tell people to stay cautious...

On the other hand: no reason to panic in Israel...
Yes reason to panic in Florida, Texas, California, Oklahoma, Arizona...

The more people are afraid of the virus and careful to avoid spread, the less the virus will do to them.
The more careless the population - the more harmful the virus...

That's the basic principle...
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shabbatiscoming




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 5:58 am
Ora in town wrote:
I suppose this "second wave" is still the first wave...

Those states that were spared until now became light-headed, people did stupid things, so the virus has new occasions to spread...

I would not be too worried about Israel. The fact that they are finding "so many" cases (although it's almost nothing compared to Florida or California) is actually a good thing: this shows that they are on top of tracking and tracing...

So on the one hand, they have to tell people to stay cautious...

On the other hand: no reason to panic in Israel...
Yes reason to panic in Florida, Texas, California, Oklahoma, Arizona...

The more people are afraid of the virus and careful to avoid spread, the less the virus will do to them.
The more careless the population - the more harmful the virus...

That's the basic principle...
Interested that you say not to be worried in Israel. Many here are very worried.
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amother
Maroon


 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:00 am
amother [ Puce ] wrote:
Are you talking about Israel or America?

Because Israel may be having a second wave but America is still in its first wave.
It may have peaked in NY but NY is only one state out of 50.
Oregan never had a first wave so this can't be a second wave.

I haven't seen any news articles about this but I have seen drs and nurses on twitter from texas and Georgia talking about how they are over capacity in hospitals (not verified anyone can say anything online but....)


I guess the correct terminology is second peak rather than second wave. Israel also hasn't passed it's first wave, sine we locked down very early, before it had a chance to gain too much traction.
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amother
Maroon


 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:02 am
amother [ Puce ] wrote:
Are you talking about Israel or America?

Because Israel may be having a second wave but America is still in its first wave.
It may have peaked in NY but NY is only one state out of 50.
Oregan never had a first wave so this can't be a second wave.

I haven't seen any news articles about this but I have seen drs and nurses on twitter from texas and Georgia talking about how they are over capacity in hospitals (not verified anyone can say anything online but....)


That's why I don't understand this whole camp business.

Doing camps out-of-state and allowing campers from across all different states seems to be quite irresponsible IMHO.
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etky




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:02 am
Ora in town wrote:
I suppose this "second wave" is still the first wave...

Those states that were spared until now became light-headed, people did stupid things, so the virus has new occasions to spread...

I would not be too worried about Israel. The fact that they are finding "so many" cases (although it's almost nothing compared to Florida or California) is actually a good thing: this shows that they are on top of tracking and tracing...

So on the one hand, they have to tell people to stay cautious...

On the other hand: no reason to panic in Israel...
Yes reason to panic in Florida, Texas, California, Oklahoma, Arizona...

The more people are afraid of the virus and careful to avoid spread, the less the virus will do to them.
The more careless the population - the more harmful the virus...

That's the basic principle...


Um, no......
The tracking system has totally collapsed due to understaffing and today the government is going to discuss renewing the Shabak electronic tracking that was discontinued after the first wave.
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FranticFrummie




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:12 am
etky, thanks for the corrections about Israel. Some of my info was from last week, and some from yesterday. The numbers vary so widely that it's hard to say who has what agenda, and why the statistics are written the way they are. One news source says this, another says that... etc.

My over all point wasn't that I was trying to be precise. My point was that things are NOT back to normal, and the number of new cases is worrying.

I guess I'm just frustrated over things I have no control over. My DD just moved from Washington State to Texas, from one lockdown to an even stricter one. I'm not so scared she's going to get sick (even though she has pretty bad asthma.) I more worried about her mental health. Depression and anxiety are her constant companions, and she's only started getting a handle on it.

Hashem should keep us all safe - and sane.
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LovesHashem




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:26 am
I'm pretty sure there's been 460 cases in the past 24 hours.

I'm waiting for the shutdown to happen again. The government is really pathetic. A couple days ago they say they would combat the idiots who don't social distance and wear masks with social media posts.

As if my teenage sister is going to see a paid post on instagram and say "Hey, I should really social distance now!"

I came across such a post yesterday - there were about 2000 comments, most of the comments were about how it's basically the flu, a bunch of lies, one popular comment said "If it's really this dangerous, why do you have to CONVINCE us it's dangerous? Why do you need propaganda?"

I don't know - the same reason there's government "propaganda" like "Don't leave your kids in cars", "Wear a seat belt", "Don't drink and drive, don't text and drive!" and "Don't do drugs!"

Maybe the government is completely wrong with all that stuff too.

We have a huge army! Just fine people 1000 shekels for not wearing masks, businesses 5000, and then maybe you will have enough money in the budget so you won't have to go through with the new law of taxing EVERY personal imports! I think less people will be ordering from Amazon when you have to start paying 17 percent tax on a 20 dollar order.
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FranticFrummie




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:31 am
LovesHashem wrote:
I think less people will be ordering from amazon when you have to start paying 17 percent tax on a 20 dollar order.


Off topic, but WHAT? Surprised

I hadn't heard about that. They probably buried it under all the Covid news, and pushed it through while we were worried about dying. Mad

When does this new tax limit go into effect? (Heading to AliExpress, BRB.)
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Success10




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:31 am
My neighborhood has gotten really good about the masks in the last few days. I guess since a psak came out saying one MUST wear a mask, and also the uptick in fines. Is a mask enough? It's spreading through schools, children who take of the mask, don't wash their hands, even smaller kids who are not required by law to wear a mask and they share food and snot. I don't think enforcement in the adult population is going to make a major difference.

I'm thrilled that my kids are back in school, but if they really wanted to stop this thing, they'd shut the schools back down. Then, of course, parents can't work. They don't want to stop the virus at the risk of destroying the economy, so I don't think they will shut the schools, or cancel the summer camps.
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etky




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:32 am
LovesHashem wrote:
I'm pretty sure there's been 460 cases in the past 24 hours.

I'm waiting for the shutdown to happen again. The government is really pathetic. A couple days ago they say they would combat the idiots who don't social distance and wear masks with social media posts.

As if my teenage sister is going to see a paid post on instagram and say "Hey, I should really social distance now!"

I came across such a post yesterday - there were about 2000 comments, most of the comments were about how it's basically the flu, a bunch of lies, one popular comment said "If it's really this dangerous, why do you have to CONVINCE us it's dangerous? Why do you need propaganda?"

I don't know - the same reason there's government "propaganda" like "Don't leave your kids in cars", "Wear a seat belt", "Don't drink and drive, don't text and drive!" and "Don't do drugs!"

Maybe the government is completely wrong with all that stuff too.

We have a huge army! Just fine people 1000 shekels for not wearing masks, businesses 5000, and then maybe you will have enough money in the budget so you won't have to go through with the new law of taxing EVERY personal imports! I think less people will be ordering from amazon when you have to start paying 17 percent tax on a 20 dollar order.


Ugh, I saw that too.
I'm really hoping that they don't cancel the exemption.
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amother
Black


 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:43 am
OP, is it true that "each ventilator requires 2 doctors and 10 nurses"? Where is this from?
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FranticFrummie




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:48 am
amother [ Black ] wrote:
OP, is it true that "each ventilator requires 2 doctors and 10 nurses"? Where is this from?


The woman I work for is in public health, and both of her parents are MDs. She gets all the medical news, and we were talking about this yesterday.
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Elfrida




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 6:51 am
amother [ Black ] wrote:
OP, is it true that "each ventilator requires 2 doctors and 10 nurses"? Where is this from?


Maybe over the course of 24 hours there will be ten nurses and two doctors somehow involved in the patient care and monitoring? But they would each be caring for more than one patient, and doing other tasks in the course of the shift. Certainly you don't have that amount of staff around a bed at any one time. Even during intubation you don't have twelve people involved at once.

The Corona hotels never closed. There was a period of lower demand, so there were less of them operating, but there are still plenty of them open around the country. If the demand increases, more of them will open up again. They never underwent the deep clean an refurbishment that would allow them to.open up for tourists. When there are any tourists.
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Elfrida




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 7:04 am
Quote:
the ventilator wards are getting near capacity again. 


As of today, there are 45 patients in serious condition, 28 of whom are on respirators. That's higher than it was a week ago, but we have a lot more capacity than that available.

That is 45 patients in serious condition, out of 5,460 active cases. Over 15,000 people have made a full recovery. Not including cases who were never asymptomatic and thus undiagnosed. Corona is a risk that we need to respect, and follow all reasonable precautions, but we don't need to become overwhelmed and panicked about it.
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etky




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 7:18 am
Elfrida wrote:
Quote:
the ventilator wards are getting near capacity again. 


As of today, there are 45 patients in serious condition, 25 of whom are on respirators. That's higher than it was a week ago, but we have a lot more capacity than that available.



I saw that the new 'red line' for ventillated patients is 2500: meaning that the govt. approved a plan that would prepare for the most extreme case scenario of 2500 ventillated patients. So yes, we are very, very far from that. That - as well as the low hospitalization rate is why a general closure is not on the table and probably will not be again even though the contagion rate is uncontrolled and through the roof. So far high contagion has not yielded much actual sickness so that has reigned in the panic here.

Of course we don't know how things will develop or, for that matter, what the long term health implications are for people who test positive. For me personally, even the prospect of losing my sense of taste and smell alone is so disturbing that I am doing everything possible-within reason of course - not to get this virus.
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heidi




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 8:17 am
Just checked the news.
154 new cases.
45 in serious condition.
Under 30 on ventilators.
Not great but not sure it's a reason to panic.
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Success10




 
 
    
 

Post Wed, Jun 24 2020, 8:22 am
heidi wrote:
Just checked the news.
154 new cases.
45 in serious condition.
Under 30 on ventilators.
Not great but not sure it's a reason to panic.


"436 new confirmed cases of coronavirus in 24 hours" - Arutz 7 today
Right now, B"H no one is in serious condition...yet. Reason:
This new wave is spread among the younger crowd, and school kids. They generally don't have extreme cases at all. But they will be (already are) spreading it to the older crowd, and we will possibly see more hospitalizations in the coming week/weeks. I hope that's not the case, but don't let the current numbers fool you.
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