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For anyone who thinks covid is just as dangerous as the flu
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Miri1




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:25 am
amother [ Copper ] wrote:
What people don't seem to understand is that even if COVID-19 doesn't kill you, you don't bounce back within a day or two of recovery like you do with flu.

Even people who had mild cases, but especially people who had moderate or severe cases, take months and months to recover.

A coworker who had a mild case in March (and came back in early April) still doesn't have full lung capacity back and constantly feels short of breath. A rav in his 60s who had a mild case before Pesach and was recovered within two weeks now has a hard time walking. Perfectly healthy young parents now faint and have trouble functioning at work.

This isn't like the flu, where when it's gone it's gone. COVID-19 sticks around and its effects linger for a long time.


Yes this.
We tend to fixate on the death rate.
But those in recovery may not just bounce right back.
And those who have survived serious illness are often left with lasting health problems.
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amother
Natural


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:25 am
nchr wrote:
Yes it's more infectious in a shul than outdoors at a protest. It's also more infectious in a nightclub or bar where thete is singing and chanting. Outdoors carries a low risk of transmission. Most infections can be tied to indoor superspreading events. Indoor protesting would be extremely high risk. The sleepway camp day camp has to do with daycare issues.

So outdoor funerals, camping style camps where the kids sleep in their own tents, outdoor movie shows, outdoor clubbing (silent disco), outdoor graduations, etc are all dangerous but protests are not Banging head
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shoshanim999




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:26 am
FranticFrummie wrote:
This is so true! There are not enough statistics in yet to understand the long term effects of COVID recovery. For the self centered, here's one - if people are still feeling the effects long term, they will not be functioning at full capacity, and that will affect the economy recovery.

For those who care about other people, it's not just diabetes or heart problems. I got sick the week before Purim, and I still get out of breath from walking up two blocks at a very shallow rise in the pavement.

Even worse, I've already had one TIA and one serious stroke. Because I have vascular migraines I've always been at risk for stroke. Now, it seems that some people who have recovered from COVID are even MORE at risk for stroke, and even people who were not at risk before they were infected.

But I'm 55, so I guess I'm disposable. As long as you can carry on with your life, and you find masks to be a nuisance, that's what matters, right?

If one day I stop posting, and I'm found dead on my apartment floor, well that's just a small price to pay for "getting on with things." Just find someone to feed my dog, OK?



I don't understand why you feel this way.

It's important to understand the nature of the virus and how it impacts people of varying ages and health. The fact that it's repeatedly pointed out that Covid is far more serious for older and immunocompromised individuals doesn't mean that those people are somehow less important. I don't think anyone has said such a horrible thing on this thread or any other. Most frum families have large extended families with many cousins, aunts and uncles and grandparents and even great grandparents that include people in the vulnerable population. I'm sorry you feel that because you're 55 people don't care, but I think you're misunderstanding what people are saying when the point out that older people are more vulnerable.
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Ora in town




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:27 am
amother [ Natural ] wrote:
Currently the recovery rate in America is 41% so you have a greater chance to recover than to die. But why are you disregarding all the problems surrounding covid19 mentioned upthread?

If the fatality rate is 5%, this means that 95% will not die from covid.
if it is 0,5%, it means that 99,5% will not die from it.

What you don't grasp is that 0.5% death rate from an infectuous disease that spreads so easily is alarming.

In the USA, this would translate to 1.5 million deaths.
Which would mean that the death toll in the country would increase by 50% for that year.
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amother
Natural


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:29 am
amother [ Copper ] wrote:
...and there is no comparison, so trying to downplay the seriousness of COVID-19 is essentially saying that it's okay if people die, as long as no one steps on your toes and asks you to stay home.

The deaths are sad but many could have been prevented and/or have nothing to do with coronavirus. Why are you downplaying the incompetent politicians like Cuomo who made harmful laws regarding nursing homes, ventilators, makeshift hospitals, etc or hospitals who neglected their patients? Why are you ok with all of this or the fact that hospitals write down coronavirus as cause of death even if its something else just to get funding?
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nchr




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:31 am
amother [ Natural ] wrote:
So outdoor funerals, camping style camps where the kids sleep in their own tents, outdoor movie shows, outdoor clubbing (silent disco), outdoor graduations, etc are all dangerous but protests are not Banging head


No, those, like other outdoor activities, likely do not carry a high risk of infection.
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amother
Natural


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:35 am
Ora in town wrote:
If the fatality rate is 5%, this means that 95% will not die from covid.
if it is 0,5%, it means that 99,5% will not die from it.

What you don't grasp is that 0.5% death rate from an infectuous disease that spreads so easily is alarming.

In the USA, this would translate to 1.5 million deaths.
Which would mean that the death toll in the country would increase by 50% for that year.

And again, you are disregarding all the problems listed above. But lets say that other states outside of NY dont have the same policies/problems that NY has/had(as listed upthread), do you still think that the death rate from coronavirus would be the same as NY (which has the highest death rate in America)?
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ora_43




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:37 am
amother [ Natural ] wrote:
The numbers you list are inaccurate because many people, including those who were actually sick and had symptoms as well as those who may have been asymptomatic, didnt get tested.

But they are also inaccurate because there are a lot of "extra" deaths even when confirmed covid deaths are accounted for. IOW - a fair number of covid deaths not being counted as such.

19,000 confirmed/probable covid deaths/ (8 million NYC residents * 0.2 of the population who had covid (acc. to antibody tests)) = mortality rate of around 1.1%.

And if we assume most excess deaths were covid-related,

24,0000/1,600,000 = mortality rate of around 1.5%
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FranticFrummie




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:38 am
shoshanim999 wrote:
I don't understand why you feel this way.

It's important to understand the nature of the virus and how it impacts people of varying ages and health. The fact that it's repeatedly pointed out that Covid is far more serious for older and immunocompromised individuals doesn't mean that those people are somehow less important. I don't think anyone has said such a horrible thing on this thread or any other. Most frum families have large extended families with many cousins, aunts and uncles and grandparents and even great grandparents that include people in the vulnerable population. I'm sorry you feel that because you're 55 people don't care, but I think you're misunderstanding what people are saying when the point out that older people are more vulnerable.


I think you've missed all the threads where people have said "I'm young and healthy, so I don't know why I should have to lock down, or wear a mask, or not send kids to school, etc." I've seen plenty of posters say "If you are at risk, just stay home so that the rest of us can carry on with our lives."

The selfishness has been astounding. Count yourself lucky that you haven't read it. One or two people saying such things would have been an outlier, but there is a very large group here who feel the same way. I've lost respect for a lot of people in the the last few months. I thought that among Jews there would be more achdus and compassion. Crying
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nchr




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:43 am
amother [ Natural ] wrote:
And again, you are disregarding all the problems listed above. But lets say that other states outside of NY dont have the same policies/problems that NY has/had(as listed upthread), do you still think that the death rate from coronavirus would be the same as NY (which has the highest death rate in America)?


The death rate will be similar throughout the US; however, when you take hospital capacity into play and at what point the infections occurs in the pandemic, death rate can be impacted.

For example, a hospital with more capacity will likely have a lower death rate than a hospital who has exceeded its capacity (which means less likely to suction patients, monitor vitals, less dialysis machines availible, etc.) That being said there were BH many cases of hospitals and staff going above and beyond and saving people to an extent that was beyond what would normally be done but yes there was negligence but really had they not been overwhelmed this may have been prevented.

In addition, now that we know there is a higher demand for dialysis machines and that high flow oxygen is likely extremely helpful while early intubation is not, it is likely individuals in all states will get better care because we are later into the pandemic and know more about treating the virus. Likewise, when there will be more therapies maybe we will be able to reduce the death rate or hospitalization rate to something insignificant.

That being said, NY is not an example of what to do to the US - rather what we should NOT do. NY was hit blind, NY shut down too late, NY hospitals were understaffed, over burdened, underprepared, etc. So other states should learn to probably allow visitors, use other methods (high flow oxygen), etc. and identify hotspots to prevent future spread without the need for lock downs.
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ora_43




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 10:43 am
What New Yorkers seem to be missing is that other places have bad policies, too.

Sure, more New Yorkers could have lived if every hospital was top-notch and every nursing home was keeping the highest possible levels of safety.

But guess what? There are bad hospitals and careless nursing home staffers and bad government policies in Texas, too. And Israel. And Massachusetts. And Britain. And... you get the point. Even if you want to argue that nobody anywhere else has policies/hospitals as bad as NYC, you can't assume that we'll avoid 100% of the increased mortality that you attribute to carelessness.

What the mortality rate would look like in an ideal world is a lot less important than what it's going to look like in the world we actually live in.

I really doubt any US state, or Israel, is going to do better than South Korea, and even their death rate is hovering somewhere around 2.2%. Maybe that's as low as 1.3% if we assume that even they miss some cases.

eta - I do agree w/nchr that hopefully the mortality rate will drop due to some advances in understanding what works and doesn't re: treatment. But that will only hold true if hospitals aren't overwhelmed - and the mortality rate still won't change all that much absent a truly effective treatment.
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amother
Green


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 11:47 am
Wow Ora what’s with the language? Won’t quote it but really some expressions like cursing are not found on this forum - since you are still relatively new you might not have realized
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amother
Gray


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 11:52 am
FranticFrummie wrote:
This is so true! There are not enough statistics in yet to understand the long term effects of COVID recovery. For the self centered, here's one - if people are still feeling the effects long term, they will not be functioning at full capacity, and that will affect the economy recovery.

For those who care about other people, it's not just diabetes or heart problems. I got sick the week before Purim, and I still get out of breath from walking up two blocks at a very shallow rise in the pavement.

Even worse, I've already had one TIA and one serious stroke. Because I have vascular migraines I've always been at risk for stroke. Now, it seems that some people who have recovered from COVID are even MORE at risk for stroke, and even people who were not at risk before they were infected.

But I'm 55, so I guess I'm disposable. As long as you can carry on with your life, and you find masks to be a nuisance, that's what matters, right?

If one day I stop posting, and I'm found dead on my apartment floor, well that's just a small price to pay for "getting on with things." Just find someone to feed my dog, OK?


Only a 5 year old would think that 55 is old. And only an immature person would think that anyone is disposable.
55 is so young!
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amother
Natural


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:11 pm
Ora in town wrote:
If the fatality rate is 5%, this means that 95% will not die from covid.
if it is 0,5%, it means that 99,5% will not die from it.

What you don't grasp is that 0.5% death rate from an infectuous disease that spreads so easily is alarming.

In the USA, this would translate to 1.5 million deaths.
Which would mean that the death toll in the country would increase by 50% for that year.

No, 41% or I should say 42% (if you round it up-41.99%) who tested positive for coronavirus recovered (many people are still sick so they are not included in this recovery or death statistics). That is if you want to include only people who tested positive for coronavirus (which is how you got 5% of deaths, otherwise its .04%). Only 8% of people who tested for coronavirus in America tested positive so again, the numbers are low and not as dangerous as you think it is. Hopefully other states will learn from NY and do things differently so that they minimize the deaths in their states.
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fleetwood




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:28 pm
shoshanim999 wrote:
I don't understand why you feel this way.

It's important to understand the nature of the virus and how it impacts people of varying ages and health. The fact that it's repeatedly pointed out that Covid is far more serious for older and immunocompromised individuals doesn't mean that those people are somehow less important. I don't think anyone has said such a horrible thing on this thread or any other. Most frum families have large extended families with many cousins, aunts and uncles and grandparents and even great grandparents that include people in the vulnerable population. I'm sorry you feel that because you're 55 people don't care, but I think you're misunderstanding what people are saying when the point out that older people are more vulnerable.


I'm sorry but FF is absolutely correct. Some posters keep posting that those vulnerable should just stay home and let everyone else go mask free. I guess that means,as of winter when I turn 50 I should just stay home forever,Bec people refuse to wear a mask.
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amother
Burgundy


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:33 pm
amother [ Natural ] wrote:
And again, you are disregarding all the problems listed above. But lets say that other states outside of NY dont have the same policies/problems that NY has/had(as listed upthread), do you still think that the death rate from coronavirus would be the same as NY (which has the highest death rate in America)?

The virus came into New York from Europe and we got walloped before we even knew it existed. Of course NY had the most cases Bec,by the time we knew about this virus it was too late. Other states such as Florida and Texas knew better and should know better. The fact that cases are spiking and so is the rate of hospitalizations,is inexcusable. New York learned a lesson the hard way,but it was learned and that's why there are barely any new cases compared to three months ago.
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amother
cornflower


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:39 pm
amother [ Green ] wrote:
Wow Ora what’s with the language? Won’t quote it but really some expressions are not found on this forum - since you are still relatively new you might not have realized


What language? The only thing offensive on this thread are people who don’t get how selfish they are being. What FF said.
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SixOfWands




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:42 pm
amother [ Natural ] wrote:
So outdoor funerals, camping style camps where the kids sleep in their own tents, outdoor movie shows, outdoor clubbing (silent disco), outdoor graduations, etc are all dangerous but protests are not Banging head


No one has ever said that protests were not risky in terms of transmission, even with masks. Why do you think that people are nervously awaiting spikes?

I don't find "but he did it" to be persuasive with my kids; I certainly don't find it persuasive with a potentially fatal disease.
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amother
Natural


 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 12:44 pm
amother [ Burgundy ] wrote:
The virus came into New York from Europe and we got walloped before we even knew it existed. Of course NY had the most cases Bec,by the time we knew about this virus it was too late. Other states such as Florida and Texas knew better and should know better. The fact that cases are spiking and so is the rate of hospitalizations,is inexcusable. New York learned a lesson the hard way,but it was learned and that's why there are barely any new cases compared to three months ago.

The virus came from Europe? LOL! China really has some great PR in America.
And Israel locked down early before too many people got coronavirus, now they are open and people are getting it so its not different from other states who locked down before many people got coronavirus. So perhaps in order to not get any new cases or barely any, you need to let many people get infected (and/or die) like NY? Is this what you are trying to say?
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Laiya




 
 
    
 

Post Fri, Jun 26 2020, 1:01 pm
ora_43 wrote:
But they are also inaccurate because there are a lot of "extra" deaths even when confirmed covid deaths are accounted for. IOW - a fair number of covid deaths not being counted as such.


I hadn't heard this. Can you explain please?
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