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I'm confused about the spike business
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amother




OP
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 9:46 pm
There have been multiple warnings to the frum NY community back in end of April, threatening of spikes due to premature non-SD gatherings whether funerals, secret yeshivas, or minyan. BH, no spike materialized.

Then we have mass protests, and come 2 weeks later, there's a massive spike nationwide.

How and why?
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enneamom




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 9:49 pm
It can't be connected to the protests! They're not allowed to ask people who test positive if they were at a protest. Must be some other reason.
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amother




Gray
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 10:04 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
There have been multiple warnings to the frum NY community back in end of April, threatening of spikes due to premature non-SD gatherings whether funerals, secret yeshivas, or minyan. BH, no spike materialized.

Then we have mass protests, and come 2 weeks later, there's a massive spike nationwide.

How and why?


Do you really want to know, or are you just pointing out the irony?






(If you are sincerely asking, it's because many, if not most, Jews in NY's hot spot areas already got the disease. So their antibodies - which are probably temporary - are currently protecting them.)
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youngishbear




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 10:43 pm
It's not clear that the spike is due to protests. NYC had pretty intense protests and there is no spike.

In places where infection rate is high, it is probably due to a combination of a larger pool of potential infectees (because almost no one has even temporary immunity) plus a rushed reopening, especially indoor maskless crowds.
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Cmon be nice




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 10:57 pm
Places like Florida never really had a first wave, unlike NY which did. Seems like those are now getting that first wave.
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tigerwife




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 11:05 pm
Cmon be nice wrote:
Places like Florida never really had a first wave, unlike NY which did. Seems like those are now getting that first wave.


This, combined with more testing availability.
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Blessing1




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 11:10 pm
There's no spike in NYC and there were massive protests going on. There's only a spike in cities that weren't majorly hit with a first wave
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amother




Violet
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 11:22 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
There have been multiple warnings to the frum NY community back in end of April, threatening of spikes due to premature non-SD gatherings whether funerals, secret yeshivas, or minyan. BH, no spike materialized.

Then we have mass protests, and come 2 weeks later, there's a massive spike nationwide.

How and why?

Its a very smart disease.
It goes to sleep away camp but not day camp.
It goes to indoor rallies but not protests or riots.
It goes to outdoor graduation but not beaches.
It goes to shul even if shul is outside.
It goes to prisons but not to the homeless
It knows if you are black, latino or white and certainly doesnt affect Jews.
It knows if you are liberal or conservative and which kind of protest you attended.
It also knows if you are outside drinking alcohol but doesnt go to liquor stores.

Dont worry, there wont be a spike in NY unless Trump decides to come and hold a rally, then there will be a spike even if the rally is held outdoors with everyone wearing masks and socially distancing. That is how smart coronavirus is.
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dietcokeaddict




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 11:41 pm
It's even smarter than that. It knows it can go to sleepaway camps in NY but it had better stay away from camps in New Hampshire or PA.

Last edited by dietcokeaddict on Mon, Jun 29 2020, 11:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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silverlining3




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 11:44 pm
amother [ Violet ] wrote:
Its a very smart disease.
It goes to sleep away camp but not day camp.
It goes to indoor rallies but not protests or riots.
It goes to outdoor graduation but not beaches.
It goes to shul even if shul is outside.
It goes to prisons but not to the homeless
It knows if you are black, latino or white and certainly doesnt affect Jews.
It knows if you are liberal or conservative and which kind of protest you attended.
It also knows if you are outside drinking alcohol but doesnt go to liquor stores.

Dont worry, there wont be a spike in NY unless Trump decides to come and hold a rally, then there will be a spike even if the rally is held outdoors with everyone wearing masks and socially distancing. That is how smart coronavirus is.


Haha yea. I vote for this
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amother




Violet
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 11:51 pm
dietcokeaddict wrote:
It's even smarter than that. It knows it can go to sleepaway camps in PA or New Hampshire but it had better stay away from camps in NY.

Nah. It only goes to sleep away camp in NY but not in PA or New Hampshire.

But this is clearly the breakout of COLOR WAR!!! YEAH!! GO NY!! BOO PA and NH!!

The head counselors of all these camps went all out for color war breakout this year with their elaborate coronavirus theme. How will they top this next year?
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walkingalong




 
 
 
 

Post  Mon, Jun 29 2020, 11:57 pm
tigerwife wrote:
This, combined with more testing availability.


Even if there was no testing, the spike data is based on hospitalizations so even with 0 diagnosed/tested cases there would mysteriously be full ICUs and morgues in AZ, FL, TX...

In states where testing was less because of state officials not deploying tests and faulty tests a couple months ago there were thousands of deaths of pneumonia reported but not attributed to COVID-19 infection.

CDC national and state-by-state numbers for 2020 (since February 1) here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/.....x.htm

CDC mortality numbers from 1999-2018 can be searched by month, state, and cause here: https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html

An article about this data shows: https://www.courier-journal.co.....7002/

“Pneumonia kills about 50,000 people each year in the U.S., according to the CDC.
This year, at least 89,555 deaths have been attributed nationwide to pneumonia between February and mid-May.
It tends to follow a typical flu season, coming on in December and peaking in January and February before declining in March to April.
But preliminary CDC data from this year show pneumonia deaths steadily climbed in March to peak in April, mirroring the trend line for deaths linked to the coronavirus outbreak.
Surrounding states are also seeing death counts several times greater than normal:
Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)”

After learning for 6-months about how the virus acts the infection rates can almost be calculated from test data and hospitalization rates. We will know what the death toll for the virus is maybe years after this pandemic ends and everyone looks at the mountains of hospitalization, testing and funeral data.
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amother




OP
 

Post  Tue, Jun 30 2020, 12:01 am
So to be accurate, this whole huge current outbreak in the US is in reality a first wave and the whole second wave theory is a shtus?

And if indeed the virus did pass over NY back in March/April, why can't we stam reopen?
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amother




OP
 

Post  Tue, Jun 30 2020, 12:02 am
amother [ Violet ] wrote:
Its a very smart disease.
It goes to sleep away camp but not day camp.
It goes to indoor rallies but not protests or riots.
It goes to outdoor graduation but not beaches.
It goes to shul even if shul is outside.
It goes to prisons but not to the homeless
It knows if you are black, latino or white and certainly doesnt affect Jews.
It knows if you are liberal or conservative and which kind of protest you attended.
It also knows if you are outside drinking alcohol but doesnt go to liquor stores.

Dont worry, there wont be a spike in NY unless Trump decides to come and hold a rally, then there will be a spike even if the rally is held outdoors with everyone wearing masks and socially distancing. That is how smart coronavirus is.

Thanks for the chuckle.

Did you have the virus? Because its smartness really rubbed off on you...
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tigerwife




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 30 2020, 12:34 am
amother [ OP ] wrote:
So to be accurate, this whole huge current outbreak in the US is in reality a first wave and the whole second wave theory is a shtus?

And if indeed the virus did pass over NY back in March/April, why can't we stam reopen?


The second wave was predicted for the fall. The US is huge. It took time for the virus to travel through Europe and the same is happening to the US.

And walkingalong, yes, that is what I mean. Had testing been as widespread the as it is now, we would have seen thousands more cases in the tristate area in March/April. High positive rates in other states will lessen the percentage of hospital rates, although technically hospital rates are the same.

It just amazes me how nobody has become any smarter after months of watching area after area become infected.
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walkingalong




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 30 2020, 12:59 am
amother [ OP ] wrote:
So to be accurate, this whole huge current outbreak in the US is in reality a first wave and the whole second wave theory is a shtus?

And if indeed the virus did pass over NY back in March/April, why can't we stam reopen?


We are not clear on the 2nd wave.

The pandemic has been acting a lot like the 1918 H1N1 flu aka The Spanish Flu (where the news started reporting it). Because the virus has been so well controlled in early hit countries like South Korea, we are not sure how a second wave will work and will basically find out the hard way in a couple of months when EU, North and South American countries see resurgences.

With the 1918 pandemic the US was devastated by the second wave, especially in areas that relaxed too much and/or learned nothing from the first wave.

In the 1918 first wave many poor people, essential workers and the vulnerable died horribly (think of the nursing home deaths we have already seen in NY!).

The second wave hit middle-class people very, very hard.

The 1918 H1N1 and this coronavirus are different, it is the human factor that remains the same unfortunately. The social transmission and human behaviors that create a pandemic are eternal human problems. Sad

We do not know how long antibodies may confer resistance. Just like with 1918 people will need to be careful with hand-washing and best health practices for a couple of years. Especially since the treatments in trials are being price quoted well out of the reach of most Americans.

Preliminary studies in Israel are starting to show how much damage survivors are left with, so using the excuse that "Only the weak die! Most people survive!", is very short sighted and overlooks healthy people who now have permanent pulmonary and lung damage, including needing lung transplants.
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amother




cornflower
 

Post  Tue, Jun 30 2020, 1:11 am
amother [ Violet ] wrote:
Nah. It only goes to sleep away camp in NY but not in PA or New Hampshire.

But this is clearly the breakout of COLOR WAR!!! YEAH!! GO NY!! BOO PA and NH!!

The head counselors of all these camps went all out for color war breakout this year with their elaborate coronavirus theme. How will they top this next year?

Color war is a racist expression in 2020
Gotta change it to Caucasian war
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amother




OP
 

Post  Tue, Jun 30 2020, 1:21 am
amother [ cornflower ] wrote:
Color war is a racist expression in 2020
Gotta change it to Caucasian war


No more master plans either. Racist.
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ora_43




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 30 2020, 1:49 am
While I'm sure there were cases of people being infected at protests, it seems very likely that most of the new spread is not protest-related. Among other things:

  • There's very little overlap between places that had massive protests, and places that are now seeing a spike in cases. Eg in Minnesota, cases are actually down, while in Texas there was a massive increase.

  • There's also the fact that in places currently experiencing spikes, eg Texas, transmission was growing even before protests started. Experts were already predicting a surge.

  • Bars and restaurants have been open in Arizona and Texas (and elsewhere), bars and restaurants have been crowded in Arizona and Texas, bars and restaurants are a much bigger risk for virus transmission than any outdoor activity whether it's protesting, minyan, playing tag, or whatever else.

  • Individual stories like this one give some insight into how the virus is spreading.
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ora_43




 
 
 
 

Post  Tue, Jun 30 2020, 2:07 am
So what does explain it?

Coronavirus simulator, because this is always relevant.

The spike outside NYC is easy to explain. Several states reopened weeks ago. The spike in cases is in those states. Transmission followed the pattern seen everywhere else - a several-week period where it looked like there were very few cases, followed by a sudden massive spike.

A low infection rate in frum communities in NYC could be caused by multiple things.

1. It could be that frum communities were so hard-hit in the first round that they have some immunity (I would be very wary of relying on this at this point, since studies show that immunity is only at around 20% in NYC - but it's not impossible).

2. It could be that frum communities are isolated from sources of the virus. IOW the virus basically left those communities, but the communities don't have herd immunity, and if the virus is reintroduced from the outside post-reopening, it could cause a surge in cases.

3. It could be that secret yeshivas, minyans, etc, are things that only 30% of the population is doing, or 50%. So long as a significant part of the community is being careful, there won't be a dramatic spike even if the rest of the community is making no effort. See the coronavirus simulator.
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