I'm confused about the spike business

ora_43

Tue, Jun 30 2020, 3:10 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

This is what I find confusing. Cheders and yeshivos began operating secretly isru chag Pesach and have gradually reopened cautiously until they were open full scale, in the regular buildings, WITH transportation since Shevuos! Lunchrooms are operating, it's school as usual. And may Hashem continue to protect us, but noone got sick.

Something isn't adding up.

Cheders and yeshivos are what, 10% of the population? 20%?

Add to that

- that kids seem to be less likely to catch the virus

- that at least 20% of the population had the virus earlier this year, and has some immunity

And transmission-wise, it's like a partial shut-down.

ora_43

Tue, Jun 30 2020, 3:20 pm

Beyond that, there's not always (or even often) a direct, instantaneous connection between doing something risky, and bad things happening.

Most people who drive drunk get home safely.

People can smoke for decades and feel just fine.

People ignored scientists' warnings about climate change in the 1970s and 1980s, and nothing happened... until the past decade, when we suddenly had one "hottest year on record" after another.

For every one family that got together on Pesach or Easter this year and caught coronavirus from each other, there were at least another 10 that got together and were just fine afterwards.

The answer to "if it's so unsafe, then why is everything fine?" is almost always either:

- statistically speaking, most people (or in this case, most communities) were going to be OK, this time you're one of them

or

- wait for it

amother

Vermilion

Tue, Jun 30 2020, 3:27 pm

In many ways this virus is a mystery.

For every statement, there was a counterstatement.

Italian scientists who made autopsies have switched from calling it a virus to a bacteria.

Transmission of the virus has many different theories.

There is a lot of confusion since plagues in past centuries actually felled several family members at once.

So what is actuallly going on? I do not think we will ever know.

amother

Cobalt

Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:06 pm

amother [ Vermilion ] wrote:

No. Just No.

https://thelogicalindian.com/f.....21655

amother

Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:23 pm

ora_43 wrote:

Do you realize that kids don't self teach? There are melamdim, teachers, secretaries, principals, menhalim, magidei shiur, cooks, cleaners, custodians, tutors and more. Why did none of them get sick in the past over 2 months?

ora_43

Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:38 pm

amother [ Vermilion ] wrote:

There's a lot that isn't known, but I disagree on the specific things you mentioned.

The "it's actually a bacteria" thing was a hoax.

Transmission was thought to be through droplets, then it was discovered that it's apparently through micro-droplets as well. But there weren't really different theories - there are only so many ways a virus transmits, and there's like 99% agreement on most of it.

It's not confusing that other plagues have killed entire families, while coronavirus barely ever does that. There exist diseases that are far more fatal than coronavirus. Ebola, the Black Plague, cholera (if untreated)... If a virus has a 60% chance of killing one person, then it has a 4.6% chance of killing every single person in a family of 6 people. But coronavirus has roughly a 1.1% chance of killing a single person, meaning the odds it will kill every member of a family of 6 people are less than one in a hundred million.

IOW, it's all down to different mortality rates - which is hardly unexpected, since there have been a variety of diseases with a variety of different mortality rates (which often vary based on age, health, etc) for all of human history.

ora_43

Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:51 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Yes, of course I realize that.

I don't understand how that changes what I said. You're still talking about a relatively small group of people. Most people are not teachers, most people are not principals.

If 100% of people are living normally (ie no social distancing), the virus spreads. It doesn't seem to be spreading at first, but it is. At some point, after one or two months of this quiet spread, there's a sudden spike.

But if only 30% are living normally, the spread is much slower. There may never be a major spike.

This really is not remotely mysterious. It's interesting to wonder whether or not there's herd immunity involved, but there's absolutely no reason to assume that there is. Statistically speaking it wouldn't become odd that there were no outbreaks specifically at a school until you had well over 100 schools open.

(note: talking here about a situation where schools are reopening after a month off, when presumably very few students are actively ill; obviously in a time and place where 20% of people are sick the odds of a mass infection at school would be much higher)