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Largest COVID study highlights Super-Spreaders
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amother




OP
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 7:16 am
"8% of people with COVID-19 accounted for 60% of the new infections." Banging head

#wearamask

Director Extensive contact tracing in two southern Indian states offers the strongest evidence yet that a few super-spreading individuals are responsible for a disproportionate share of new coronavirus infections, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Science. It also suggests that children are more efficient transmitters of the virus than widely believed.....

...The study suggests that super-spreading events are influenced by behavior — that proximity to an infected person, length of contact and ambient conditions determine the level of risk. It doesn’t examine whether some infected people spread the virus more efficiently because of biological factors, a question scientists are still trying to answer.

The results could help guide safety measures in places such as gyms, churches and choir practice spaces that have been locations for previous super-spreading events....

...The study also found that although children younger than 17 were the least likely to die of COVID-19, they transmitted the virus at rates similar to the rest of the population, underscoring the idea that the disease doesn’t spare young people. One data point in particular holds implications for reopening schools: Children ages 5 to 17 passed the virus to 18% of close contacts their own age....

Antonio Salas, a Spanish researcher who has investigated the role of super-spreaders in the pandemic, said the study’s findings regarding children were important in light of “previous reports suggesting a minor role of children in the pandemic.”

“National policies on how to proceed with children in schools and other social activities could change dramatically if the scientific evidence underpins the idea that children can infect as efficiently as adults, and even more, they could also behave as super-spreaders,” said Salas, who was not involved in the India study....



https://www.latimes.com/world-.....=true
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Hashem_Yaazor




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 8:37 am
The Atlantic also has a good article about dispersion https://www.theatlantic.com/he.....6548/
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Mama Bear




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 8:56 am
Southern Indian.... why does that hold true for the whole world or the U.S....?
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nchr




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 8:59 am
Mama Bear wrote:
Southern Indian.... why does that hold true for the whole world or the U.S....?


There have beens studies in US and South Korea as well FYI. That's how we know the dangers of places of worship being superspreading situations.
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Rutabaga




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 9:55 am
Mama Bear wrote:
Southern Indian.... why does that hold true for the whole world or the U.S....?


At the very least it negates the argument that it's all political and will disappear after the US election.
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amother




Blue
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 10:21 am
Well I'm going to choose not to believe the article, not because I am a research scientist and have a PHD in infectious diseases, but because I don't want to and it seems inconvenient to me. Clearly we are all had herd immunity this summer so it must be wrong and I'm just hearing blah, blah, blah..

/S (incase anyone wasn't clear)
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Jacoby




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 10:22 am
What's bothersome to me is that every day there's new research out, that seems to contradict previous well done research....
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imasoftov




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 11:08 am
Jacoby wrote:
What's bothersome to me is that every day there's new research out, that seems to contradict previous well done research....

That's how science learns things.
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youngishbear




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 12:35 pm
imasoftov wrote:
That's how science learns things.


We should put this on a billboard.

Only the Torah is immutable.

Science is a process of hypothesis, experiment, rejection of hypothesis, and over and over again.

If our understanding of the novel virus wouldn't have changed since March I'd be very worried.
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ra_mom




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 12:38 pm
Hashem_Yaazor wrote:
The Atlantic also has a good article about dispersion https://www.theatlantic.com/he.....6548/

Great article!
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amother




Wheat
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 12:39 pm
youngishbear wrote:
We should put this on a billboard.

Only the Torah is immutable.

Science is a process of hypothesis, experiment, rejection of hypothesis, and over and over again.

If our understanding of the novel virus wouldn't have changed since March I'd be very worried.

But we are the ones being taken on a ride. It's hard to know whom to trust these days. An when you lose confidence in studies, you get a defiant culture not willing to cooperate.
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amother




Aquamarine
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 12:41 pm
[quote="Jacoby"]What's bothersome to me is that every day there's new research out, that seems to contradict previous well done research....[/quote
We've known this for a very long time.
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youngishbear




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 12:42 pm
amother [ Wheat ] wrote:
But we are the ones being taken on a ride. It's hard to know whom to trust these days. An when you lose confidence in studies, you get a defiant culture not willing to cooperate.


If you stop looking at it as set in stone, and accept that a new virus will present a tremendous scientific challenge, creating a fluid situation with changes in policies to follow new information as we learn it, you might stop feeling resentful, and stop viewing it as some big bad government deliberately trying to drive us crazy.
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nchr




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 12:46 pm
We've know about the superspreading since May and probably before. We connecting places indoors with singing and worship to major superspreading in April in the US and March as well. I don't know why this is new information. The Rabonim are aware as well because doctors met with them before Shavuous about it. NY was hit so bad because it had blind superspreading and the frum community lives with superspreading events all the time. Science has made very few contradictions - one being surface spread which is not a significant source of the outbreak but superspreading is.
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FranticFrummie




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 1:17 pm
Jacoby wrote:
What's bothersome to me is that every day there's new research out, that seems to contradict previous well done research....


Just because we are still learning, doesn't negate the facts that we already know.

I don't know trigonometry, but I do know basic addition and subtraction.

Basic math = Wear your mask and keep social distance.
Trigonometry = fool proof vaccine.
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FranticFrummie




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 1:20 pm
Mama Bear wrote:
Southern Indian.... why does that hold true for the whole world or the U.S....?


Because viruses don't care where you live.

People who live in India are not a different species. They get the virus just like the rest of us humans. Banging head
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amother




Emerald
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 1:25 pm
youngishbear wrote:
We should put this on a billboard.

Only the Torah is immutable.

Science is a process of hypothesis, experiment, rejection of hypothesis, and over and over again.

If our understanding of the novel virus wouldn't have changed since March I'd be very worried.


This is true.
This also explains the fact that we blindly say naaseh venishma and follow what the Torah tells us, but we're not willing to follow the scientists like sheep only to be told whoops they got it wrong let's start all over.
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Mama Bear




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 4:21 pm
by the way there's nothing new or surprising in that study. Theyre basically saying facts that we knew already.
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imanonymous




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 4:30 pm
Mama Bear wrote:
by the way there's nothing new or surprising in that study. Theyre basically saying facts that we knew already.


But some of us seem to disbelieve them quite evidently, both in word and deed...
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Mama Bear




 
 
 
 

Post  Thu, Oct 01 2020, 11:00 pm
no. we choose to still get on with our lives and let our kids be kids, despite the pandemic.
Precautions need to be taken, definitely. But locking down indefinitely does not work. whenever the lockdown ends, be it a week, a month, a year, or a decade... thats when you catch covid....
This is something that we can't escape. the longer we drag this out the longer it'll drag out.
it's just a horrible gezeira that only HaShem can end.
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