Is it fair to say the virus is losing strength?

amother

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 8:23 am

I posted this around 2 weeks ago. I pointed out that many European countries such as France, Spain, and Italy have been getting huge numbers of infections (higher than in the first wave back in March) yet deaths are way down comparatively.
We've been having the 2nd wave in the bklyn/lakewood area for awhile. Supposedly these zip codes are enormous hotspots for infection. Yet boruch hashem I haven't heard of a single death from the virus in the last few weeks. I know 1 person in their 70's who was hospitalized. I've asked others in my area and they say the same thing.

Even if you know of a person who has nebach passed away it still seems to have dramatically lessened from the first wave when we had people dying daily. Thoughts?

banana123

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 8:31 am

I'm trying to find the article, but in the meantime, from what I've seen doctors are saying that this is hitting younger people, faster and harder than the first wave hit. So you have more younger people in serious condition and on ventilators, and more younger people are likely to die in the coming weeks.

Last edited by banana123 on Mon, Oct 05 2020, 8:38 am; edited 1 time in total

amother

Salmon

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 8:37 am

No, it’s not fair to say the virus is losing strength. It’s 2020, and doctors are able to sequence the genome and see exactly what strain is prevalent. Turns out, it’s exactly the same one that hit NY in March. What is different is we now have been able to test and track far more cases (artificially lowering the mortality rate) including earlier cases and are able to see/detect the growth curve early on in an outbreak. Everybody knows far more people were infected in the first wave than were tested, as tests were nearly impossible to come by.

Another reason is that most of the new cases had been younger low risk people, who drive the original spread in all outbreaks, and have a relatively low mortality rate. That changes when it is so prevalent that it reaches even the old and high risk who are being careful.

Lastly, in locations that hospitals aren’t currently overwhelmed and understaffed patients are obviously receiving better care, and there is a lot more knowledge of how to properly treat patients (though there is no actual cure).

You don’t know people who’ve died recently? Bully for you. At least 3 people in Lakewood have died in the last week (Blumberg, Harrari, and Grama) and several more from Brooklyn. There are many patients in the hospital and a few dozen frum people on vents in the tri-State area.

The virus is the same, and must be treated the same. Please don’t post misinformation which causes innocent people to believe this and act differently based on that knowledge. You are playing with people’s lives. Literally.

Mothers

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 8:45 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Just want to point out that this is not the 2nd wave. This is still the 1st wave. Unfortunately, the 2nd wave is expected towards the end of this (calendar year) and it is expected to get much worse. Everyone please continue (or start) davening and hishtadlus.

banana123

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 8:47 am

Mothers wrote:

And the more people gather, the greater the chance that this will mutate and become much more dangerous. Mad

Success10

Mon, Oct 05 2020, 8:53 am

Mothers wrote:

Just want to point out that this is not the 2nd wave. This is still the 1st wave. Unfortunately, the 2nd wave is expected towards the end of this (calendar year) and it is expected to get much worse.

This is not the first time I'm seeing this. Why is this not the 2nd wave? I don't really understand the science of diseases so I'm not understanding the terminology.

ChanieMommy