Super tuesday elections!

besty

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 11:19 am

What do you people think of yesterdays elections?

Amarante

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 11:30 am

Yesterday's results didn't surprise me because they had been so widely predicted. What does stun me is Trump's success. Just when I think the American electorate can't get anymore stupid, they support someone like Trump. The magnitude of his lies is astounding - he doesn't even bother to attempt to explain his lies but just acts as though they don't matter.

Of course, the other clowns in the Republican primary don't offer much of a real choice. Yesterday I read someone describing Cruz as having a Backpfeifengesicht - German for a face you want to punch/slap and it's true. Rubio is an empty robot. I mean when you have candidates accusing others of wetting their pants, what kind of travesty has the electoral process sunk to. Kasich appears to be sane but other than strongholds of traditional Republicanism, has gathered no traction so is a nonentity.

besty

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 11:35 am

well who knows trump might surprise us as president to......

Maya

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 11:41 am

besty wrote:

well who knows trump might surprise us as president to......

He won't be president.

besty

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 11:42 am

what makes you think so?

Amarante

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 11:51 am

besty wrote:

what makes you think so?

Because the national election is decided by groups who don't support Trump and/or have been totally alienated by his campaign.

His base consists of those who are poorly educated (I.e. not college graduates). It will be difficult for him to pick up any support among blacks, Latinos or other minorities given his racist comments.

He will have difficulty among swing suburban voters - not much support for him (for example) in Northern Virginia which has college educated professionals and a high percentage of women.

Many women are turned off by the awful things he has said about women - all that will be brought up again in terms of his insults.

I am not suggesting Democrats will have a cake walk but they are already preparing research and testing ads in terms of being effective weapons.

Once one starts looking at the states in terms of electoral votes, it becomes clearer why there is no roadmap for a Trump victory - the Northeast would be solidly for the Democrats as well as much of the West - California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Colorado. Virginia would probably go Democratic. I believe there is a 25% Latino vote in Texas so that might be significant enough to turn Texas blue. Florida would probably go Democratic as it's not really a red state like the rest of the Bible belt. That leaves a very very thin road to victory for Trump in terms of picking up enough electoral votes in the Midwest.

ETA - I am leaving out the imponderable in terms of whether Republicans actually desert the national ticket in order to save themselves in state or local elections. The "establishment" might sit this one out. Koch and Adelson who fund the Super PAC's do not seem to support Trump. Christie has been widely ridiculed for his support of Trump and so it seems not unlikely that other Republicans might not want to be perceived to be in his camp. Many Republicans are elected in States that are not in the South and therefore need to appeal to suburban independent voters who abhor someone like Trump and/or are not wild about the extreme social conservatism of someone like Cruz or even Rubio.

Last edited by Amarante on Wed, Mar 02 2016, 11:55 am; edited 1 time in total

besty

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 11:54 am

that's a pretty educated answer I like that.........but I wonder look what he did in south Carolina made a huge turnout double then in 2012......

Volunteer

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 12:04 pm

My state had record turnout yesterday. I was almost sure Cruz would win here because he seems to be popular here, but I was wrong. I'm very surprised that trump won, and by a large margin (Cruz was second) . I'm disappointed that Ben Carson didn't do so well in many states, because I think he's a good candidate.

Oh well. As someone wrote before, the nominations are not decided by the popular vote anyway. Time will tell.

Amarante

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 12:04 pm

besty wrote:

that's a pretty educated answer I like that.........but I wonder look what he did in south Carolina made a huge turnout double then in 2012......

I think turnout is always going to be bigger in a contested primary like the ones this year.

Mitt was not a popular choice among Republicans other than the establishment Republicans and certainly wasn't going to bring out masses to vote for him. Newt Gingrich won the 2012 primary and he was also very much of an "angry" anti-establishment Republican by that point.

Raisin

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 12:44 pm

I can imagine that many republicans will vote democratic if trump wins the nomination. Especially if hillary wins, maybe not so much if Bernie does.

causemommysaid

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 1:18 pm

I am predicting a Trump-Hillary race with Hillary winning.

This country is so sad. I can't believe this is happening.

saw50st8

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 1:23 pm

Raisin wrote:

I can imagine that many republicans will vote democratic if trump wins the nomination. Especially if hillary wins, maybe not so much if Bernie does.

Many people I know will vote Bernie over Trump but Trump over Hillary (myself included).

causemommysaid

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 1:27 pm

saw50st8 wrote:

Many people I know will vote Bernie over Trump but Trump over Hillary (myself included).

yep me too and I am a strong republican.

Then again, I don't think Trump is really a republican.

November

Wed, Mar 02 2016, 4:15 pm

causemommysaid wrote:

yep me too and I am a strong republican.

Then again, I don't think Trump is really a republican.

This! Except not the Bernie over Trump part.
I predict Trump vs. Hillary with Trump winning, as crazy as that sounds. Buckle your seatbelts, everyone! It's going to be an interesting and crazy ride!