Diagnosis, prognosis, and trusting G-d

ectomorph

Tue, May 07 2024, 9:27 am

My latest substack post, correction by Rebbetzin Devorah Fastag to follow later today iyH.
This is a partial quote.
Part 1: Introduction
https://ishayirashashem.substa.....sting

My parents were worried because I started to talk comparatively late, and they consulted a doctor because of it.

-Albert Einstein, 1954

Ancient astrologers were trusted for centuries, which is incredible now that we know that they were just guessing.

Professional care has changed since ancient times, but the desire to control the future is as strong as ever.

While people did not expect astrologers to cure illnesses, they might use urine, blood, and star interpretations from the person’s date of birth to treat diseases and to make predictions. This was ineffective, but they were considered effective at the time.

Part 2: Neuro “Psychic” Evaluations
Let's talk about Jack and Jane Doe.¹⁴ Jack and Jane didn't know about being whole-hearted with G-d. And so, when their 10 year old son, John, was referred by his teacher for neuropsychological testing, Jane called all ten places¹⁵ on the list provided by the school. None of them could help John get an ADHD diagnosis in a timely manner.¹⁶

The school said that John would be expelled. He was failing academically, his belongings were disorganized and messy, and he teased his classmates. John had only one friend, and he only talked about sports and computer games.

Jane and Jack knew something had to change. They couldn't afford to wait two years for a neuropsychological evaluation for their only son, who was suffering. They also couldn't afford the fees.

Jack had an idea. The school had, after all, essentially requested that they hire someone to tell John’s future and advise them. Jane's best friend, Vashti, charged only $40 an hour, and she had a reputation for accurate predictions. Vashti worked at the Local Psychic as a Pediatric Fortune Teller. She specialized in college admissions.

Jack and Jane were educated, and they thought that Vashti was probably a fraud. However, many people were happy with her work, and she had a good reputation. The school wanted an expert to weigh in. Vashti was an expert.

So Jane called her friend Vashti, the fortune teller, for help.

🔮

Jane: You already know, of course, that our John is struggling, and he needs a neuropsychological evaluation for a diagnosis and recommendations for the future. Could you predict this for us?

Vashti The Fortune Teller: Of course! As your best friend, I am happy to help, especially since there is no real way to tell his future anyway.¹⁷ Please sign this legal document, approved by my in house counsel.

Jane: I didn't know you have in house counsel.

Vashti: Predicting the future is big business! I'm also a superforecaster on Metaculus, under the name Sargon Ashurwitz.¹⁸ I won $2000 last month making accurate predictions using my crystal ball. I'm actually Chaldean,¹⁹ but on Metaculus, everyone thinks I'm a programmer of Jewish descent.

Jane: I don't know what Metaculus is, but I trust you anyway, because we are best friends. What do I need to sign?

Vashti: Firstly, you acknowledge, in writing, that I am a fortune teller and not a professional psychologist or a prophetess or a doctor. You affirm that you will never sue me for any reason, even if it has nothing to do with this evaluation.

Jane: Of course not.

Vashti: You'd be surprised how often fortune tellers are sued when things dont work out. Our malpractice insurance costs more than an obstetrician.

Jane: Are you as expensive?

Vashti: No, because most health insurance doesn't cover psychics. You are liable to pay only $40 an hour for my services out of pocket. You might get 20% reimbursed if you can justify it as a psychiatric expense.

Jane: That's amazing. Health insurance really covers everything these days.

Vashti: Finally, you will send me a copy of the neuropsychological report, when you receive it, in around two years from now, and permit me to use it in future advertising. Details will be changed for anonymity, of course.

Jane, eagerly signing on the dotted line: Your process makes so much more sense than any of the places I called. Can you see John this week? Or is there a waiting list?

Fortune Teller: Please return with these forms about his development and his general behavior, completed as truthfully as possible, without incriminating anyone in any criminal matters. Also, please have these same forms filled out by a teacher from his school, so I can verify your responses. And bring all his academic records.

Jane: This is way more logical than waiting for a neuropsychological evaluation! What do people do if none of their friends are fortune tellers?

Vashti the Fortune Teller, sadly: Tragically, their children often suffer significant harm while they wait for their assessments.

(A few days later)

Jane: Here are his report cards, a copy of his behavior reports for the past 3 years, and his standardized test results.

Vashti: Great work. Please bring John to see me in person.

Jane: I'll have him here by 12:30 P.M.

(John and Jane return at 12:29 P.M.)

Vashti: Welcome, John! I'm Vashti the Fortune Teller, and I've heard a lot about you. Now, I will connect with my Inner Eye and gift you with insights about John. These are based on accredited fortune telling procedures and scientifically valid astrology. Please have him sit here next to me, as neuro ‘psychic’ evaluations work better with close proximity.

(John takes a seat next to the Fortune Teller.)

Vashti: John, my Inner Eye is showing me a path filled with creativity and success. You have a unique talent in problem-solving.

John: Yesterday I figured out how to build a model of my bedroom in Minecraft.

Vashti: You will successfully explore many biomes, in Minecraft and elsewhere. However, I also sense some challenges ahead.

Jane, worried: Please tell us more about those challenges.

Vashti: John might face moments of self-doubt. It's important for him to have a supportive environment where his efforts are acknowledged.

Jane: Doesn't that apply to everyone? Are there any specific recommendations you can offer to make his life easier?

Vashti: Opportunities for hands-on learning will benefit his educational progress. Additionally, fostering a growth mindset and teaching him to embrace challenges as learning opportunities will help him overcome obstacles with confidence.

Jane: Those are valuable suggestions for anyone. Anything else?

Vashti: As I peer into his future, I sense a strong bond between John and his friends. His ability to connect with others and empathize will make him a supportive and cherished friend as an adult. Teach him to be cautious of those who might take advantage of his kindness. And don't believe any neuropsychological evaluation that says his IQ is less than 110 .

Jane: OK. What's the diagnosis?

Vashti: ADHD with hyperactivity. The standard of care is medication and therapy.

Jane: Thank you for your time and insights.

Vashti: You're welcome. Remember, John's journey is shaped by his genetic endowment, your socioeconomic status, and his environment. All these will benefit from therapy and medication.

Jane: That cannot possibly work, but at least you have a solution. Thank you, Vashti.

And that's the story of John. With the support of medication and the fortune teller, he rapidly improved in his social and academic work. John is now in medical school, planning to become a pediatric neurologist.

Thesis: Modern predictive assessments, especially in neuropsychology, may have limited accuracy and might not be fundamentally different from ancient practices of fortune-telling.
What do you think?