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Israel: Concern of new wave though educational system
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amother




Seafoam
 

Post  Fri, May 22 2020, 11:49 am
amother [ Mauve ] wrote:
Exactly proving the NY theory.

Israel lockdown earlier than NY, so a large percentage of the population was not exposed yet. It worked at the time and made them look like they had it all under control. So as soon as they attempt to reopen, they will have a second wave of those unaffected yet.

NY/NJ, on the other hand,was slow on locking down, causing a huge exposure intensified by the Purim celebrations. So almost 100% of the NY/NJ population was exposed resulting in ahuge explosion of cases at once but granting them with the likes of almost herd immunity. So although the secret chederim started over 5 weeks ago, and although almost all stores reopened violating the executive order, in those hotspots there was no spike and no new wave.

Understand?

And BTW, what's a chochmologim? Is it a compliment?



Recently released data refutes your theory.

Sweden's approach has been lauded on here by many posters, based on the same reasoning you used above.
Despite their high death toll and freedom of movement, they are nowhere near the hoped for 70-90% infection rate needed to achieve herd immunity.

Recent antibody testing in Stockholm pegs their infection rate at 7.5%. Countries that instituted lock downs have been recording an infection rate of around 5%, They have sacrificed lives for naught.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/s.....50144

There is no reason to believe that NY has had the level of exposure you assume it has. Antibody testing in NYC puts the rate of infection at around 20%.

https://www.timesunion.com/new.....9.php
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amother




Royalblue
 

Post  Fri, May 22 2020, 11:51 am
Kol hakavod to the good job Israel is doing to try to manage everything and balance. It is a blessing that we in NY have countries to learn from how to handle things here.
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southernbubby




 
 
 
 

Post  Fri, May 22 2020, 12:03 pm
amother [ Mauve ] wrote:
Exactly proving the NY theory.

Israel lockdown earlier than NY, so a large percentage of the population was not exposed yet. It worked at the time and made them look like they had it all under control. So as soon as they attempt to reopen, they will have a second wave of those unaffected yet.

NY/NJ, on the other hand,was slow on locking down, causing a huge exposure intensified by the Purim celebrations. So almost 100% of the NY/NJ population was exposed resulting in ahuge explosion of cases at once but granting them with the likes of almost herd immunity. So although the secret chederim started over 5 weeks ago, and although almost all stores reopened violating the executive order, in those hotspots there was no spike and no new wave.

Understand?

And BTW, what's a chochmologim? Is it a compliment?


At least in Monsey, it looked like most secret chederim were small so if someone had the virus, it could not spread as much. The same went for store owners who let people in with appointments; no crowded stores. I can't say what went on on Brooklyn or Lakewood but if it was obvious to non-Jews that stores were open, they most likely called the police.
I think that keeping things small is a winning formula for the time being.
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etky




 
 
 
 

Post  Fri, May 22 2020, 12:04 pm
amother [ OP ] wrote:
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/headlines-breaking-stories/1863103/new-wave-of-covid-19-100s-of-kids-isolated-as-staff-in-bnei-brak-tel-aviv-rishon-ltzion-rosh-haayin-test-positive.html

There’s concern about a new wave of the coronavirus in Israel through the educational system as more and more reports are heard about staff members in educational institutions and daycare centers being diagnosed with the coronavirus, Channel 12 News reported. The latest reports are about staff members of daycare centers in Bnei Brak and Rosh HaAyin who tested positive for COVID-19.

Earlier on Thursday, about 50 children in a kindergarten in north Tel Aviv had to be quarantined after a staff member tested positive for the coronavirus.


Also on Thursday, an assistant at a kindergarten in Rishon L’Tzion was diagnosed with the coronavirus, sending the children and other staff members in the class into self-quarantine.

In Bnei Brak, an assistant at a special education gan was diagnosed with the coronavirus sending an unspecified number of children and staff members into quarantine. Earlier this week, 15 eighth-grade students in the Zichron Meir girls’ high school in Bnei Brak were required to self-quarantine after one of their classmates was diagnosed with the virus.

In Rechovot, where dozens of students at a school were quarantined after two staff members tested positive for the virus, a staff member at the Beit Chana hostel tested positive for the virus.

Three staff members and 27 residents were sent into self-quarantine and the other residents of the hostel will be tested for the virus.

Two students at the Rechovot school who were self-quarantining were diagnosed with the coronavirus on Tuesday.

Also on Tuesday, a toddler who attends a Tel Aviv daycare was diagnosed with the virus, sending 16 other toddlers into quarantine.


So in one of the cases (I think Tel Aviv) the staff member was a false-positive.
In Rishon they did testing for the entire kindergarten and everyone was negative (so far..).
Rechovot is a hot spot and seems to be a big problem right now and possibly Bnei Brak.
BTW, this shabbat shuls are open for the first time since before Pesach.
We'll see what happens.
I think it's too early to draw conclusions about anything right now.
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amother




Mauve
 

Post  Fri, May 22 2020, 12:26 pm
amother [ Seafoam ] wrote:
Recently released data refutes your theory.

Sweden's approach has been lauded on here by many posters, based on the same reasoning you used above.
Despite their high death toll and freedom of movement, they are nowhere near the hoped for 70-90% infection rate needed to achieve herd immunity.

Recent antibody testing in Stockholm pegs their infection rate at 7.5%. Countries that instituted lock downs have been recording an infection rate of around 5%, They have sacrificed lives for naught.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/s.....50144

There is no reason to believe that NY has had the level of exposure you assume it has. Antibody testing in NYC puts the rate of infection at around 20%.

https://www.timesunion.com/new.....9.php

Explain the reopening of full classes for 5 weeks and no spike or new wave.
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amother




Mustard
 

Post  Fri, May 22 2020, 1:20 pm
etky wrote:
So in one of the cases (I think Tel Aviv) the staff member was a false-positive.
In Rishon they did testing for the entire kindergarten and everyone was negative (so far..).
Rechovot is a hot spot and seems to be a big problem right now and possibly Bnei Brak.
BTW, this shabbat shuls are open for the first time since before Pesach.
We'll see what happens.
I think it's too early to draw conclusions about anything right now.
This . After checking it wasn't true. Don't get hysterical.
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kalsee




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 12:25 am
a chochmolog is a smart-aleck/wise guy/smarty pants
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DrMom




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 12:47 am
We are addressing hotspots on a very local level. I read that in Rehovot and Rishon, they temporarily turned a park in the outbreak neighborhood into a covid-19 testing center. Anyone with whom the infected individuals have been in contact was sent an SMS to get tested.

The idea is to clamp down on hotspots quickly while everyone else carries on with minimal disruption.
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mfb




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 1:00 am
Ora in town wrote:
Thank you for drawing attention to the phenomenon.
Perhaps it will give pause to all those chochmologim who think it is all over, who think they can reopen their schools in hiding, etc...

The difference is that in Brooklyn most people were sick already and are over with it that’s why they want schools to be open. In Israel where they closed up early no one has antibodies so of course if you open up everyone is starting to get sick.
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mfb




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 1:04 am
amother [ Seafoam ] wrote:
Recently released data refutes your theory.

Sweden's approach has been lauded on here by many posters, based on the same reasoning you used above.
Despite their high death toll and freedom of movement, they are nowhere near the hoped for 70-90% infection rate needed to achieve herd immunity.

Recent antibody testing in Stockholm pegs their infection rate at 7.5%. Countries that instituted lock downs have been recording an infection rate of around 5%, They have sacrificed lives for naught.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/s.....50144

There is no reason to believe that NY has had the level of exposure you assume it has. Antibody testing in NYC puts the rate of infection at around 20%.

https://www.timesunion.com/new.....9.php


The reason data isn’t showing such a high rate is because most people that I know of just were sick at home and rode it out without ever getting tested. So yes most had it but data won’t show that. At the time that people in Brooklyn were sick there were still major shortages of tests and people couldn’t be tested.
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amother




Chocolate
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 1:04 am
amother [ Seafoam ] wrote:
Recently released data refutes your theory.

Sweden's approach has been lauded on here by many posters, based on the same reasoning you used above.
Despite their high death toll and freedom of movement, they are nowhere near the hoped for 70-90% infection rate needed to achieve herd immunity.

Recent antibody testing in Stockholm pegs their infection rate at 7.5%. Countries that instituted lock downs have been recording an infection rate of around 5%, They have sacrificed lives for naught.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/s.....50144

There is no reason to believe that NY has had the level of exposure you assume it has. Antibody testing in NYC puts the rate of infection at around 20%.

https://www.timesunion.com/new.....9.php


The 20% estimated infected population of ny is for the general public. It’s reasonable to assume that a much higher percentage of the frum community was infected, thanks to Purim, Shul etc. hence no spike despite the recent loosening of restrictions and sd.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 1:10 am
amother [ Chocolate ] wrote:
The 20% estimated infected population of ny is for the general public. It’s reasonable to assume that a much higher percentage of the frum community was infected, thanks to Purim, Shul etc. hence no spike despite the recent loosening of restrictions and sd.


Very true.
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amother




Sapphire
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 1:15 am
Ora in town wrote:
Thank you for drawing attention to the phenomenon.
Perhaps it will give pause to all those chochmologim who think it is all over, who think they can reopen their schools in hiding, etc...

why the name calling?

There are valid reasons in the pro-opening school camp and in the anti-opening school camp.
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Just One




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 1:29 am
mfb wrote:
The reason data isn’t showing such a high rate is because most people that I know of just were sick at home and rode it out without ever getting tested. So yes most had it but data won’t show that. At the time that people in Brooklyn were sick there were still major shortages of tests and people couldn’t be tested.

The 20% figure is based on antibody testing not testing used to diagnose the active virus
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SacN




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 1:34 am
Quote:
amother [ Jetblack ] wrote:
chachmologim probably is a word that refers to the fear mongering non science based media that seems as usual to thrive on non fact based sensationalism


I assumed it was chachamim (wise men) misspelled


It's a colloquial term for a smarty pants.
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CiCi




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 2:04 am
I opened a thread 1 week or two (or three) ago comparing NY/NJ to Israel. I wondered why the difference was huge. Yes, as many on the thread pointed out, the measures Israel took prevented the numbers from looking like they do in the US, BUT in the end, since it won't go away as viruses never cease, it seems to that herd immunity is the only way to go.
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dietcokeaddict




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 2:07 am
CiCi wrote:
I opened a thread 1 week or two (or three) ago comparing NY/NJ to Israel. I wondered why the difference was huge. Yes, as many on the thread pointed out, the measures Israel took prevented the numbers from looking like they do in the US, BUT in the end, since it won't go away as viruses never cease, it seems to that herd immunity is the only way to go.


ITA. There’s no other way to defeat this virus.

And that’s yet another reason why this ridiculous lockdown needs to end yesterday.
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mochamix18




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 2:14 am
DrMom wrote:
In Israel, being in quarantine = staying isolated from everyone, including other family members, for 14 days.

Stay in a dedicated room, have one dedicated person pass you your meals, do not go out except to go to a (dedicated) bathroom.

It's very difficult.

Any testing they can do to minimize the time someone is in quarantine needlessly should be offered.


Especially small children but yes everybody
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WitchKitty




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 2:46 am
CiCi wrote:
I opened a thread 1 week or two (or three) ago comparing NY/NJ to Israel. I wondered why the difference was huge. Yes, as many on the thread pointed out, the measures Israel took prevented the numbers from looking like they do in the US, BUT in the end, since it won't go away as viruses never cease, it seems to that herd immunity is the only way to go.

I hate this "herd immunity" business. Are you trying to get me sick?
Living in Israel and still keeping SD rules, the chances of me currently getting covid19 are quite low. By the time we open flights, the hope is that, a. , we learn a lot more about the virus, its transmission rates, reaction to heat, etc, and, b. The United States probably got over it already, because of your great belief in herd immunity. (which has claimed lots of lives, but, if you insist...). Also, c., as I believe in vaccinating, I have that to hope for.
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soap suds




 
 
 
 

Post  Sun, May 24 2020, 2:49 am
southernbubby wrote:
At least in Monsey, it looked like most secret chederim were small so if someone had the virus, it could not spread as much. The same went for store owners who let people in with appointments; no crowded stores. I can't say what went on on Brooklyn or Lakewood but if it was obvious to non-Jews that stores were open, they most likely called the police.
I think that keeping things small is a winning formula for the time being.

Yet there seem to be no new cases, even within each small bubbles.
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