Israel: Concern of new wave though educational system

ora_43

Sun, May 24 2020, 3:19 am

I don't know why people keep claiming herd immunity is inevitable as if there have never been any other viruses in all of history that we could compare this to What

Obviously there are ways to avoid viruses other than getting and maintaining herd immunity. Otherwise we'd all be getting ebola and smallpox on a regular basis.

People who avoided getting the Spanish flu in 1918-1920 just... never got it. There was no later wave where all the non-immune people were infected.

Ditto for people who avoided SARS during the SARS outbreak. Or MERS.

Whether we should go the elimination route, the 'be careful until it's over' route, or the herd immunity route is a different question. But herd immunity is very clearly not the only possible solution.

ora_43

Sun, May 24 2020, 3:26 am

amother [ Chocolate ] wrote:

The 20% estimated infected population of ny is for the general public. It’s reasonable to assume that a much higher percentage of the frum community was infected, thanks to Purim, Shul etc. hence no spike despite the recent loosening of restrictions and sd.

It's reasonable to theorize, but given the stakes involved, I don't know about reasonable to assume.

There hasn't been a spike in cases (yet) in Israel, either. Just a handful of new cases. Either it takes longer than this for the virus to start spreading again in a major way, or summer is doing its summer thing and reducing transmission.

Either way, Israel is definitely not proof that if cases haven't spiked in NYC, NYC must be immune. If anything, the opposite. We definitely don't have herd immunity, and yet there's been a sharp drop in transmission recently.

morningsickness

Sun, May 24 2020, 3:27 am

re: herd immunity,
there's conflicting research results regarding how long the anti-bodies stay in ones body. I have seen reports that a person here in Israel who got better got infected agfain. I have seen otheer reports claiming that the anti-bodies aren't staying in the body longer than a few months...

I think the bottom line is: we don't know.

Last edited by morningsickness on Sun, May 24 2020, 4:37 am; edited 1 time in total

Elfrida

Sun, May 24 2020, 3:58 am

morningsickness wrote:

re: herd immunity,
there's conflicting research results regarding how long the anti-bodies stay in ones body. I have seen reports that a person here in Israel who got better got infected agfain. I have seen otheer reports claining that the anti-bodies aren't staying in the body longer than a few months...

I think the bottom line is: we don't know.

Considering that the first cases were reported in December, and we only began to see serious outbreaks from February, anything over a few months can only be speculation.

Teomima

Sun, May 24 2020, 4:30 am

A few things: first of all, this isn't measles or the chicken pox. So called "herd immunity" (which anyone with an immunocompromised family member can tell you is a terrifying measure to try and count on) does not exist for covid-19. For starters, we know next to nothing about this virus. There have been documented cases of relapse and there are new related conditions popping up. And even if herd immunity were reliable, no way you'd achieve that through exposure alone. Herd immunity happens when a huge percentage of the population gets vaccinated, combined with those protected by antibodies. Since there is no covid-19 vaccination, and we do not yet know if antibodies can keep you safe, then it is not now, nor in the foreseeable future, a reliable option.

How anyone can argue that what is happening in New York or Sweden is better than Israel is beyond me.

Now, regarding the OP, I think Israel is doing a pretty good job. Our kids were home for two months and we smacked that curve down. Yes the economy suffered and of course that's played a role in why we're sending our kids back to school. But it's not the only reason. There comes a point when you've slowed things down enough that this is what you do, start returning to (a new) normalcy. Yes there will be new cases and of course they'll happen at work and school. But flattening the curve wasn't about eradicating the virus; it was about slowing the rate of infection down to a manageable figure. That's where we're holding now in Israel.

If you think this virus is going to pass any time soon, or that we'd achieve "herd immunity" within the near (and even not so near) future, you're sorely mistaken. We'll be fighting this virus for years to come.

The best we can do is try to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, maintain proper protective measures, and focus on what matters most: staying alive and healthy.

amother

Lime

Sun, May 24 2020, 9:46 am

amother [ Mauve ] wrote:

Exactly proving the NY theory.

Israel lockdown earlier than NY, so a large percentage of the population was not exposed yet. It worked at the time and made them look like they had it all under control. So as soon as they attempt to reopen, they will have a second wave of those unaffected yet.

NY/NJ, on the other hand,was slow on locking down, causing a huge exposure intensified by the Purim celebrations. So almost 100% of the NY/NJ population was exposed resulting in ahuge explosion of cases at once but granting them with the likes of almost herd immunity. So although the secret chederim started over 5 weeks ago, and although almost all stores reopened violating the executive order, in those hotspots there was no spike and no new wave.

Understand?

And BTW, what's a chochmologim? Is it a compliment?

Nearly 100% of NY/NJ was exposed? Do you have a source for that or are you just assuming because everyone you know has already had it?

I live in the NY area and have friends and relatives in the NY/NJ area and none of us have had any symptoms (yet, beli ayin hara). And we don't want to just get the virus and get it over with because it's not exactly a fun experience for many people and there's no evidence that you can't get it again like the flu or common cold so herd immunity may not be possible.

amother

Mauve

Sun, May 24 2020, 10:57 am

amother [ Lime ] wrote:

Proof is in the pudding.

It's week 6 of secret cheder, full classes, no new infections or death in the heimishe communities.

When you check the general statistics, it includes non Jews who weren't at our Purim parties, didn't daven at our shuls or kids didn't attend our schools. It is understood almost 100% of jews were at least at one of these 3 back in March when the virus hit NY/NJ.

So as long as there's no new spike between our communities, we don't need sources, we simply have proof!

amother

Lime

Sun, May 24 2020, 12:29 pm

amother [ Mauve ] wrote:

Maybe in your community, but in the frum communities where my friends and relatives and I live we have been following the law and the halachic and medical guidelines from our leaders and all our schools and shuls and communal centers have been closed since before Pesach.

CiCi

Sun, May 24 2020, 12:44 pm

WitchKitty wrote:

I hate this "herd immunity" business. Are you trying to get me sick?
Living in Israel and still keeping SD rules, the chances of me currently getting covid19 are quite low. By the time we open flights, the hope is that, a. , we learn a lot more about the virus, its transmission rates, reaction to heat, etc, and, b. The United States probably got over it already, because of your great belief in herd immunity. (which has claimed lots of lives, but, if you insist...). Also, c., as I believe in vaccinating, I have that to hope for.

What would I gain from making you sick? LOL

I am interested to see what will happen once flights bring into Israel people from all over the world and Israelis start traveling to all over the world.

DrMom

Sun, May 24 2020, 12:52 pm

CiCi wrote:

What would I gain from making you sick? LOL

I am interested to see what will happen once flights bring into Israel people from all over the world and Israelis start traveling to all over the world.

Currently there is short list of countries (Cyprus, Greece, Montenegro, a few others) which will allow air travel with Israel in the upcoming months. The US is not on that list.

Testing will be required.

Ora in town

Sun, May 24 2020, 12:58 pm

mfb wrote:

The reason data isn’t showing such a high rate is because most people that I know of just were sick at home and rode it out without ever getting tested. So yes most had it but data won’t show that. At the time that people in Brooklyn were sick there were still major shortages of tests and people couldn’t be tested.

No, you don't understand.
These are not the numbers of registered cases.
this is the result of a study that tests random samples of the population for antibodies to find out how any persons went through a Covid-19-infection and "rode it out" "without ever getting tested"...
Swedish epidemiologist Tegnell used to brag that he estimated 20% of the population in Stockholm were already infected. A study proved him wrong and stated that the true rate was around 7.5%.

amother

Chocolate

Sun, May 24 2020, 1:04 pm

ora_43 wrote:

Huh? Who's talking about using Israel about proof that NYC is immune? Why would we do that when one population has seen astonishingly large number of cases and one has not?

And anyways, you seem to have misunderstood. We're theorizing that the FRUM communities in NY (at least the very insular ones) have reached near herd immunity and can safely begin to reopen.

Even if it's not 100% immunity, the virus will not have enough hosts to cause a spike in cases. As noted by Mauve, people have loosened SD and have been having play dates and classes since Pesach. That's nearly 7 weeks ago. A lot longer than the assumed 5-12 day incubation rate.

What does that tell you?

Ora in town

Sun, May 24 2020, 1:19 pm

sub wrote:

Ok so please help me understand.
They were tested and found positive
Were they symptomatic?
When were they tested?
What would happen if people Would not be tested?
Are we trying to control something that cannot be controlled?

If you want to have a chance of controlling it, you have to find the asymptomatic carriers, because they are the main spreaders.

So they try to get infection rates low, so that they are able to follow chains of infection as soon as a case appears, and test or quarantine everyone who was in contact with infected people.

this way, you might find many carriers who would have gone undetected otherwise, but you might be able to cut the chain of infection and curb transmission completely.

but you are right: it might be that this in an impossible task.

But in any way, the curve has to be flattened. So if they can handle it without a lockdown, with other measures, all the better. Otherwise, they have to go back to general lockdown, which has been proven to work - but at an enormous cost...

amother

Mauve

Sun, May 24 2020, 1:29 pm

DrMom wrote:

Well, United is bringing in a plane of Israelis every morning in NY/NJ. We shall see where that takes us. I will blame them if we have a second peak, not our kids that have been back in secret cheder for over 5 weeks already.

DrMom

Sun, May 24 2020, 1:35 pm

Ora in town wrote:

But in any way, the curve has to be flattened. So if they can handle it without a lockdown, with other measures, all the better. Otherwise, they have to go back to general lockdown, which has been proven to work - but at an enormous cost...

The strategy is one of control and containment, not total elimination (sounds like a discussion of terrorism, unfortunately).

There are defined criteria (a doubling rate of >x days, >y new daily cases, etc.) for when more general lockdowns will be imposed, but the plan is to contain any inevitable outbreaks using local measures.

CiCi

Sun, May 24 2020, 1:54 pm

DrMom wrote:

But eventually there will be incoming flights from the US. My question is if the virus can be contained forever and at what cost?

amother

Jade

Sun, May 24 2020, 2:16 pm

Ora in town wrote:

I don't know how accurate these antibody tests are. People who were donating plasma who had very high levels had them drop to almost nothing a few weeks later. I'm not sure those tests are catching everyone who already had it.

ora_43

Sun, May 24 2020, 2:20 pm

amother [ Chocolate ] wrote:

I think you missed the reason I was mentioning Israel.

If "no spike in cases" meant herd immunity, then we could assume Israel, which also hasn't had a spike in cases despite reopening, also has herd immunity. But - we don't. We definitely, definitely don't.

So the assumption is faulty.