Germany is predicting up to 70% infection rate

FranticFrummie

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 10:25 am

The New York Times

BREAKING NEWS

The coronavirus is likely to infect up to 70 percent of the German population, Chancellor Angela Merkel said.
Wednesday, March 11, 2020 8:48 AM EST

Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday that the coronavirus was likely to infect about two-thirds of the German population.

“Given a virus for which there is no immunity and no immunization, we have to understand that many people will be infected. The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the population will be infected,” she said.

In her first public appearance to address the epidemic, which has already infected more than 1,200 people in Germany, Ms. Merkel said that her government was following the advice of medical experts. She urged citizens to do the same.

“We are at the start of a development that we cannot yet see the end of,” Ms. Merkel told reporters. “But we as a country will do whatever is necessary to do, working within the European bloc.”

That readiness includes flexibility on spending, to help especially the small and midsize enterprises that are losing business, she said.

“This is an exceptional situation, and we will do whatever is needed,” Ms. Merkel said. “We won’t ask every day, ’What does this mean for our deficit?’”

The chancellor urged Germans to accept that it was important to stay home whenever possible and take precautions, to ensure that the health system would be able to withstand the high number of people who could fall seriously ill.

Major events, including all large cultural performances in Berlin, Munich and elsewhere, such as many soccer games, have either been canceled or will take place without spectators. “How we respond matters,” Ms. Merkel said. “We are playing for time.”

ectomorph

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 10:32 am

The goal is to slow it down until a reliable treatment can be developed. The actual virus is here to stay.

Germany apparently is using different metrics to report mortality than other countries so we need to wait and see with the numbers.

FranticFrummie

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 10:34 am

ectomorph wrote:

I understand that it's early days. I simply posted for the sake of everyone who is saying "It's no big deal, it's not as bad as the flu. I'm young and healthy so I don't have to worry."

Elfrida

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 11:26 am

The WHO has been talking about the eventual likelihood of a 60-70% infection rate worldwide. It's not just Germany.

amother

Puce

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 11:27 am

Elfrida wrote:

The WHO has been talking about the eventual likelihood of a 60-70% infection rate worldwide. It's not just Germany.

That's if no cure is found. As of now, there are multiple drugs in trial.

southernbubby

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 11:58 am

Apparently 50 people caught the virus from that one lawyer from New Rochelle so it spreads exponentially.

imasinger

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 12:00 pm

Mortality rate is different from infection rate.

Still, this is no joke.

Elfrida

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 2:06 pm

southernbubby wrote:

Apparently 50 people caught the virus from that one lawyer from New Rochelle so it spreads exponentially.

He fits the definition of a super spreader, and probably gave off a very high viral load. Most people don't pass it in quite so generously.

nchr

Wed, Mar 11 2020, 2:16 pm

I've read that epidemiologists estimated that up to 40-70% of the World's population is expected to get the virus within the next 2 years (obviously a huge amount of variance there). However, we do see that quarantine and testing methods are effective - look at China, South Korea, etc. so I'm sure that will play a roll in keeping hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. I am also pretty sure that the WHO agrees that this is still containable because of how it spreads and how contact tracing has worked in other countries.