Covid-19 transmission and the weather

amother

Sun, May 24 2020, 2:02 pm

Several posters keep wondering why there has been no uptick in cases b''h in their communities despite the cessation of SD several weeks ago.

Some have even attempted to extrapolate that their communities have therefore reached herd immunity.

Antibody testing refutes the herd immunity theory. There is currently nowhere in the world that has actually achieved the much lauded herd immunity and it is questionable whether it is at all possible to achieve without a vaccine.

A much more likely explanation is the significant increase of temperature in the NY region over the last few weeks.

“For every increase in heat of 1 degree Celsius (the equivalent of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), we are seeing about 2% decline in transmission,” public-health expert Ali Mokdad, the chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told ABC News. “We find this relationship in our data and possibly it would be more when the weather warms up this month.”
https://abcnews.go.com/US/warm.....12437

The virus is still here. It is likely being suppressed by the warmer weather.

Now is the time to be proactive so that when temperatures inevitably fall, we will be ready.

Genius

Sun, May 24 2020, 2:13 pm

The question is if keeping life on hold is going to have any effect on lessening the effects of the disease when (if) it does return when the weather eventually cools down. Maybe it’s a waste not to take advantage and live life while the weathers are good and restart SD when fall comes closer?