When will the coronavirus be over?

banana123

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 2:17 am

mamma llama wrote:

Tbqh, the coronavirus isn't even that scary. The people in China are dying because their corrupt government is trying to cover up the virus instead of providing medical support.

Nobody in the U.S. needs to be worried. Minus complications, it's like a really bad cold.

There was one report that over a million and a half people in China have contracted COVID-19 and half a million have died. (That was a week ago, I'm sure the numbers have gone up since.)

Let's say China's official count includes only those who have been officially diagnosed and are receiving treatment, not those diagnosed by the coroner as having died of Wuhan pneumonia (one of COVID-19's names). That leaves us with a 1 in 3 death rate if no medical support is available.

Which means that once there are too many sick people for hospitals to handle, we'll have a one in three death rate.

You know what, maybe it was something like this that killed the dinosaurs. I can see it killing humanity really fast.

Mayflower

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 2:20 am

banana123 wrote:

Where do you get those numbers from?

DrMom

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 3:17 am

The thing is, our only source of data is the Chinese government: not exactly a reliable source.

Who knows what's really happening over there? It's a totalitarian state. They can say whatever they want and kill any citizen who challenges their narrative. They might be giving us accurate figures... or the problem might be 10x worse than what they say, and we'll never know it.

I assume this is something that escaped from the biological warfare lab which was close to the market where the outbreak supposedly occurred.

etky

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 4:55 am

DrMom wrote:

Exactly.
The fact that they took such extreme measures (which are not even really working) to contain the virus demonstrates how serious the situation is.
It's true that the sheer scale of the problem in China may be preventing optimal medical treatment for all patients and hence the high number of fatalities.
Still, the way that this virus seems to resist all measure to check its spread AND the fact that primary infection does not seem to prevent reinfection in the same patient does raise the suspicion that this is an engineered virus that somehow 'got loose' and is thus something that the world has never dealt with before, at least on this scale.

amother

Mistyrose

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 7:39 am

flowerpower wrote:

Two thousand and what? I want to write it in my planner.

Oops, sorry 2020

But it will have a sort of wind chill factor.
The ramifications will last very long 5ill January 2022.

I hope this very accurate information will be helpful for all the people that are in such a desperate need of Ali.
May all your prayers be answered quickly,

Oh and may all the sick be healed.

FranticFrummie

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 8:38 am

The only way to control an outbreak is to isolate the areas, and let itself "burn out" by starving the virus of hosts. Remember when schools closed because of measles? Remember Ebola virus, or Marfan's? Same basic concept. Quarantine and isolation are the only methods that work.

Several amateur reporters who have been LiveLeaking from hospitals and city streets have been "disappeared". Pictures have been leaked showing people lying dead in lines waiting to get into the hospitals. People out in the provinces can't get into the cities, and die at home without being counted.

All transportation, both public and private, are at a standstill, so if you need a hospital your only choice is to walk - for miles - with the flu. Sound like fun? Then you get to the hospital and they tell you that they can't admit you without a positive test, but they've run out of testing swabs. If you are admitted, they tell you that they ran out of medication. Field hospitals are being built around the clock, but without treatment they are just warehouses waiting to see if you recover or not. You might as well die at home.

This is not "just a flu." This is a breakdown of an entire civilization. In areas with dense populations, any city could end up like China. New York, LA, San Francisco, Tel Aviv, Tokyo, Bangladesh. An epidemic is just one cruise ship or plane ride away.

Check your history, and Google "1919 Spanish Flu". Look how rapidly it spread without modern forms of transportation.

Hashem should help us all and keep us safe.

nchr

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 8:41 am

banana123 wrote:

The report was over a million contracted the virus and about 50,000 had died. Many scholars agree with these statistics as the worst case scenario because the statistics outside of China just do not support a mortality rate as high as 5%. The reason it is a public health emergency is that it could overwhelm the health system since it is as contagious as a flu and no one in the world has any immunity to it. However, its mortality rate is much lower than SARS and MERS and is closer to a really bad flu year (1-2%). The deaths are also generally in the at risk population (elderly, underlying conditions) however there are some younger people as well.

The question is if this virus will disappear in Spring and stay away forever, or circulate annually like other colds and flus. This will not be the virus to end or even purge the human race. That would more likely be something like a serious avian flu or weaponized smallpox chv (not that either are those are likely to occur)...

nchr

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 9:01 am

banana123 wrote:

Not anymore.
73,335 confirmed cases, divided by 1,874 fatalities, is about 1 for about every 39.

This is partly because currently, in many parts of China, only more severe cases are receiving treatment and being recognized and the mild cases are at home in quarantine. More severe cases are more likely to result in death. Even then, that is a lower death rate than SARS and MERS, Spanish Flu, etc. Also, when they retest after the quarantine is over, the numbers will likely decrease, based upon what we are seeing outside of China, but we'll need to wait and see.

amother

Blonde

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 9:05 am

sad to say banana etky FF and others make excellent points
theres still much unknown
seems to spread quickly and that raises the death toll by definition of numbers
seems to spread while a person is asymptomatic I.e. before showing any symptoms
now theres info that 14 day quarantine is not long enough and that symptoms can appear up to 24 days
and how was it spread so easily on that quarantined Princess Cruises ship so much so that the numbers rose and countries decided to break it and fly their citizens on chartered flights back to their home countries to restart quarantine
and they say it can be spread through fecal matter and through some plumbing
Hashem Yishmor.

amother

Powderblue

Tue, Feb 18 2020, 9:36 am

nchr wrote:

From what I’ve read it could be it attacks Asians worse due to their genetic makeup. That may be why the virus is so much worse in China.
(Asians (and Africans) have larger number of ACE2-expressing cells in the lung. )