Does social distancing even matter? Read on...

ora_43

Sun, Apr 19 2020, 10:59 pm

Classic example of misuse of graphs.

There are no countries that haven't used any social distancing whatsoever. None. Sweden included. So an analysis that's trying to look at whether SD works needs to be a lot more complicated than just 'if I zoom out enough, the trends look similar, wheeeee.' Of course there's less-than-exponential growth at 6-8 weeks when everybody started some form of social distancing by around week 4.

To get anything close to an accurate picture, you'd need to look at: the precise extent of social distancing, including how it looks on the ground (eg in South Korea restaurants are still open but have taken a huge hit because so few people are eating out; in other countries things are supposed to be closed, but aren't); population density; testing; and a variety of other factors including weather (maybe coronavirus doesn't do as well in colder/warmer climates).

About Sweden in particular:

Here's a little about what "not socially distancing" looks like in Sweden:

Quote:

"No, it's not business as usual in Sweden," Health Minister Lena Hallengren told international media outlets this week.

...

People over the age of 70 and in risk groups have been strongly encouraged to avoid contact with other people, and higher education institutions have been advised to conduct classes remotely.

Economic measures have been adopted to make sick leave less costly, and people have been repeatedly asked to work from home and self-isolate at the slightest symptom of the new coronavirus.

Among the stricter measures are bans on gatherings of more than 50 people and on visits to nursing homes.

And here's the number of coronavirus deaths. Deaths in Sweden are going up, and while they're still under Italy and Spain, the number of deaths as a percent of the population is much higher than in comparable countries (eg Germany, Norway). I'm not sure where the professor sees proof of a lull after 6-8 weeks.

amother

Green

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 1:09 am

If you look at the Sweden Coronavirus statistics, at the moment of all the cases that have "had an outcome", 75% have ended with the death of the patient. Only 25% have survived (this represents 100% of finalised cases but most (I think about 80%) of people who tested positive are still actually sick). I would not call this success AT ALL.

https://www.worldometers.info/.....eden/

In Australia we put in SD at a much earlier point (although still in my opinion about 2 weeks too late), so far BH there has been a much better outcome. Have a look here-

https://www.worldometers.info/.....alia/

The situation in the US is now so bad though that I don't know how it will ever end. I really feel terrible for you all over there. Really the only solution is to stay home as much as possible. Which means reconstructing society to make it possible for as many people as possible to stay home for as long as possible.

amother

Fuchsia

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 4:41 am

vepowi wrote:

BH for models being wrong. It's impossible to predict these things with any degree of certainty, given the lack of previous data and multitude of factors that change things. Even flu fatalities vary by 100%+ from year to year. It's always good to hope for the best and plan for the worst.

I do hope we're not getting to overconfident, though. Look at the head and shoulders pattern from Italy and Spain. The rates are not straight linear, being as the disease progresses through infected victims in stages. We need another week until we can know if we're over the current hill and we can reassess our battle strategy going forward.

Of course I’m happy that the models are wrong. What I’m not happy about is that we took extreme and life changing actions with little to no reliable data to back it up. The Imperial College mode was supposedly what changed the leaders minds. But if that model was wrong then how do we know we did the best thing? We don’t.

No disease is linear. But the 3-day average for NY has been down for at least a week now which is pretty good proof. Also another week would have been understandable. Cuomo didn’t extend the lockdown another week. He extended it another 3. People are getting tired of being inside all day. I’m not saying it’s right or wrong I’m saying it’s a fact. I live in a highly-educated community who believes in science etc. 3 weeks ago there was barely a soul outside. Yesterday there were tons of people out and about. I’ve heard that it’s the same in other parts of NY. People just aren’t willing to stay inside much longer, especially when they see what the numbers are. I’d rather have Cuomo accept that reality and plan to open smartly and soon rather than wait and wait and have people stop listening. Because that will happen.

amother

Fuchsia

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 4:43 am

amother [ Azure ] wrote:

The UK (where I live) is a proof that lack of social distancing is deadly. It's obvious that the situation went so bad here because they started SD far too late.

And it's also clear that the infection rate is going down now that people are distancing.

I don't even know how anyone can try dispute these facts.

That’s not proof. You’re trying to proof a counter factual which is impossible. Do you know for a fact that the same thing wouldn’t have happened had we done a more limited form of SD? You can’t say you do because it’s impossible to know. The infection rate may have gone down anyway due to more people acquiring immunity

amother

Fuchsia

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 4:50 am

ora_43 wrote:

Quote:

Sweden is expecting their largest city Stockholm to have herd immunity next month so the deaths will go down and the virus will be virtually gone from that city. The rest of the country will follow. They’ll have a sharp spike as depicted above and then a sharp decline as they get herd immunity. Even better, they’ll then be essentially done with the virus while the rest of the world deals with it for the next 18 months at least. They will likely end up with a similar amount of deaths in the long run since people in other countries will be dying for the next 18 months whereas people there will stop dying as soon as they reach 60-80% herd immunity. Considering how quickly it appears this virus spreads, that will be relatively soon. .

Hillery

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 4:52 am

amother [ Babyblue ] wrote:

Why are you ladies feeding the troll? OP is obviously looking either to start a fight, or to prove why conventional medical wisdom is "wrong" by bringing an outlier who agrees with her.

If betting were allowed, I'd bet $100 that OP is an anti-vaxxer.

Ha you couldn't be more wrong. I am totally anti quackery and pro science based medicine. This was just food for thought so I posted it.

As I've mentioned a few times, by and large I'm strict about SD. Our family is home alone most of the day, and when I or my husband do go out, we adhere to the rules. (We did have guests a few times, and my husband davens with a spread out minyen on Shabbos and yomtev, but that's not up for debate in this thread. It's been done to death already and I'll simply ignore and comments about that.)

What really weakens my belief in SD is the fact that Italy is still seeing thousands of new cases daily, even after over a month of extreme lockdown. This would suggest to me that every virus particle really does have an address, and it's entirely up to Hashem.

Of course we do have an torahdige obligation to follow medical guidelines, but beyond that we can do more 'oif' by just davening and having bitachon in Hashem. Idk, it just seems the whole SD is moot anyway, and you just need to daven.

amother

Fuchsia

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 5:10 am

DrMom wrote:

But wouldn't the kids infect their parents?

Of course but most parents of school age children are below 60 so they’d also be in a low risk category. 40% of deaths in NJ have been in nursing homes. Not a lot of school age children there. Of course if a parent was immunity compromised then maybe that child could have been taught over the computer. It’s not a perfect system either but the one We have definitely isn’t either. But if we had chosen a different route we would have been able to direct more resources to actually protected the vulnerable and increasing healthcare staff and PPE to nursing homes etc instead of having to bail out basically every American.

Additionally the immunity compromised parents are going to have the exact same problem when we open for camp or for school next year. We’re delaying the inevitable.

amother

Lemon

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 5:10 am

amother [ Fuchsia ] wrote:

What? No. If we did a less extreme form of SD and let the young people and kids out they would get infected and develop herd immunity without getting that sick. Of course there are exceptions but by and large those populations only have relatively minor symptoms.

with a less limited form of SD the infection rate could now have gone done do to more people acquiring immunity, without first much higher infection rate.... so no the same curve could not have happened with or w/o SD if people acquiring immunity is the reason for a slower infection rate.

DrMom

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 5:16 am

amother [ Fuchsia ] wrote:

But the whole goal of "flattening the curve" is to delay, not prevent infections; to smear them out over a longer period of time so that out healthcare system is not overwhelmed.

Given the way major metropolitan centers like NYC or Milan were struggling to keep up with the caseload even *with* limited SD in place, I can't imagine what would have happened if there had been no SD at all.

amother

Salmon

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 5:29 am

amother [ Azure ] wrote:

Nah! The uk healthcare is like 3rd world country. If you pay out of pocket you will be ok. Like boris Johnson he survived of course he had drs and what not at his back and call. The ones on Nhs are rachmanus. If you want a plain appointment before any pandemic for an operation you will have to wait months unless you pay out of pocket so this is mainly why people were dying. The same in the Usa. Where I live most elderly people who were sick and younger ones survived bh. Because the system is much better. Most who are dying in my country are in the oldage home. Yes if you dont go to the hospital obviously. ... I also hold by SD which I do already 6 weeks but the ammount of deads is not the fully result because of yes or no SD.. That Ny hospitals doesn't have the capacity for their residents in normal times kal vechomer in a pandemic. It's tragic.

DrMom

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 5:33 am

amother [ Fuchsia ] wrote:

I’m not saying the curve would be the same I’m saying the ultimate result will. The number of deaths could be the same.

I don't think it is so simplre Consider:

If the healthcare system is flooded with covid19 cases, then the level of care each patient will get will probably suffer, which will result in poorer outcomes.

Also, if hospitals are overwhelmed, their ability to treat other illnesses and emergencies will be compromised, whereas if they can function normally, those patients will get the attention they need.

amother

Saddlebrown

Mon, Apr 20 2020, 5:48 am

Op I have the same questions, from the beginning.
It became the popular belief that this is the way to deal with the pandemic, and most places practice it. I sort of go along with it, but I believe they will soon realize that this is not the way to go!

If everyone quarantined, would it slow the spread? Possibly. But its impossible that the entire country is doing it. And lets not talk about us, but the non jews..I see loads of them all over.

The ramifications as well - financially, mentally, emotionally, will come with a huge price. The elderly are suffering and not getting proper care and visits. The ones in nursing homes, special needs, mentally challenged are all suffering.

The kids are falling back too. They're getting much more screen time, less social interaction - a crucial part of their healthy being. And the economy certainly is.

And yet we see that Italy and even Americans that weren't exposed, died despite the quarantine. Israel also had deaths, albeit in smaller numbers, as their population is a fraction of NY. They are suffering too from this lockdown.

Is it worth the price we are paying? Noone can say for sure. But I definitely have my qualms about it.