the second wave | Imamother

PinkFridge

Tue, May 26 2020, 8:12 am

Learning wrote:

I think we c’v will have a second wave when everyone will start going out of the quarantine. They predict that the people that were not exposed because they stayed home and have weak immune system will get sick c’v. The purpose was to not crowd the hospitals. When all the first wave people get out of the hospital the second wave will be in the hospital c’v

Most people are already. No more curbside, going into stores BUT with masks, and using sanitizer wherever we find it, SD.

nchr

Tue, May 26 2020, 8:35 am

A second wave in the fall is expected because the virus is circulating in the southern hemisphere (countries below the equator) and due to the current spread in those areas as well as the lack of immunity together with the medical infrastructure in many of these areas (rural south America, Africa) it is expected that the virus will continue to circulate there and just hit the northern hemisphere (countries above the equator) with a second wave in the fall (when it will probably slow down in the southern hemisphere).

This is the case with seasonal flu viruses and the like, which do not necessarily disappear over the summer, but are less easily transferred and less likely to survive. We base our winter flu vaccine on the activity of the southern hemisphere because their viruses sort of travel (for lack of a better word) to the north. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be much more of a stable virus that doesn't mutate as rapidly or significantly as the flu (and if it did, would likely become less virulent and more mild) so we're counting on at least a portion of the population being immune IYH.

In addition, we will likely be much more prepared to test and isolate, as well as in regard to treatments by then. It is likely places in the interior US that have seemed to "escape" for now may have a harder time because it will be new to them, which is why we need to federally prepare. We know a lot more about the virus than we did 3 months ago and we'll know even more in another few months that will IYH all be beneficial.

freilich

Tue, May 26 2020, 8:41 am

My question is, if a second wave is so called inevitable, why the lockdown now? Instead of focusing on helping all the schools and businesses on what the protocol should be, if their C’V is a second wave. By not allowing to reopen now, with proper guidelines, we are heading to failure before we even start.

Instead the government should be focusing now on working out the nitty gritty of it now. And fast. We can’t have slow moving vehicles these days. People are bleeding. And we need first aid care. Not convalescence.

I’m asking this in all seriousness. I really don’t get the rationale behind this.

amother

Floralwhite

Tue, May 26 2020, 8:46 am

nchr wrote:

Also to consider is that viruses generally mutate every few months into a different strain. That's why the flu vaccine is only good for that particular year as its designed to match the current strain. Some of these viruses mutate into a harmless strain and some mutate into more dangerous ones. The SARS virus that was around a few years back mutated into a harmless strain after 8 months, that's why it stopped affecting us all. But other viruses, such as the 1918 flu virus, mutated into more dangerous one and caused a more lethal second wave when it came back in the Fall of 1918. And no one currently knows if the antibodies that we are developing now will be any good for a mutated strain.

So that's why it is very important that we don't let down our guard until we know more. We do need to reopen but we shouldn't be disregarding all of the restrictions. And we should be preparing if God forbid it does return. Let's proceed, but with caution & continue davening to Hashem that this should be all over.

nchr

Tue, May 26 2020, 9:38 am

amother [ Floralwhite ] wrote:

Well RNA viruses do tend to mutate more often (than DNA viruses), but keep in mind Measles, Mumps and Rubella (amongsts many others) are also are RNA viruses, for which immunity is generally life long and vaccines are very effective at preventing. Although so far SARS-CoV-2 appears relatively stable, but yes, we need to be conscious and careful.

giselle

Tue, May 26 2020, 9:57 am

freilich wrote:

I’m wondering the same. And in the interim why can’t we slowly proceed with caution and be hyper vigilant of a second wave, without remaining in full lockdown until then?

keym

Tue, May 26 2020, 10:14 am

My question is is the 2nd wave inevitable no matter what or is it dependent on opening.
If we were to stay in lockdown for the next year (not saying we should just wondering about the logistics) would we have starved off the virus permanently or have we just extended the timeline and the second wave will just happen a year later.

If the former, then I would be pro extending lockdown.
But if it's the latter, then our emphasis should be on preparing for the wave- increasing hospital capacity, stocking up on PPE and ventilators, hiring and training more personnel and contact tracing all while opening up the economy as quickly as possible.

freilich

Tue, May 26 2020, 10:44 am

amother [ Navy ] wrote:

I live in Belgium. Where the piek was april 12. Bh thay partly opened up schools as of may 18 and all shops are open as well as of may 11. With SD etc in place. They are working now on contact tracing and app so that IF a 2nd wave will come there will be no 2nd lockdown. Also with reopening the numbers are still going down Bh! Besides please repeat after me: "There will be NO 2nd wave!!!!" I think proud USA can learn from them a lesson or 2.

[b]
Absolutely agree!

DrMom

Tue, May 26 2020, 11:10 am

keym wrote:

For sure, if we all stayed in solitary confinement, there would be no 2nd wave, as the virus would have nowhere to go.

But we can't extend these lockdowns any longer. The unemployment rate in the US is already 15% (conservative estimate). In Israel it is >25%.

It is what it is. Time to open up (using protective measures) and get back to work. In parallel, prepare for *intelligently* tackling a (potential) 2nd wave.

amother

Tangerine

Tue, May 26 2020, 11:34 am

amother [ Navy ] wrote:

Belgium has the highest number of deaths/ capita aside from tiny San Marino (pop. 34 000). They have lost 806 people for every 1 million. No one should be taking lessons from them. I would advise the US to look to countries like Israel and Austria who have sucessfully vanquished this virus.

amother

Navy

Tue, May 26 2020, 11:53 am

amother [ Tangerine ] wrote:

Not everything that is online is true. Before testing was available all deads in Belgium were considered corona. So no this is ttly not true. Also bh our hospitals were not overwhelmed like the ones in NY. Nobody was neglected. 2/3 people who died were in the old age home. Because secular belief here is stam that old people shouldn't make to "suffer" and should die peacefully without prolonging their pain. Not that I agree with of course. In our community only 4 people died older then 70. Only a few were very sick which most recovered and very few still in rehab. So no I don't think you can just dissmiss our policy. It's not 100% just. But millions time better than NYS.

amother

Tangerine

Tue, May 26 2020, 12:04 pm

amother [ Navy ] wrote:

I don't live in the US. No one should be following their lead either. There are countries who have been successful. Learning from them is smart, denial is dangerous.

Belgium counts all nursing home deaths as probable Covid-19 deaths, the same is true for many other countries, including the one I live in. A high proportion of nursing home deaths is also quite commonplace.

I am happy to hear that the frum community has b''h escaped the worst of it, but basing our interpretation of the situation on a community that represents about 0.3 % of the country's population is erroneous.

giselle

Tue, May 26 2020, 12:19 pm

amother [ Navy ] wrote:

How can you know there will be no second wave next year? No one can know that.