New COVID-19 cases in Orthodox communities elicit concern

amother

Powderblue

Tue, Aug 25 2020, 8:47 pm

amother [ Indigo ] wrote:

But that part always goes right over everyone's heads..

I thought that was evident.
Of course we need to continue with caution,
Masks, sd etc. But please don’t cause panic.
I agree that there needs to be more accountability for travelers.
I just read that a bachor who did not keep quarantine in israel was fined, sent back home and banned for 5 years from returning. Now imagine doing that here. Wouldn’t fly, would it?

amother

Taupe

Tue, Aug 25 2020, 11:35 pm

wiki wrote:

Re. the people upthread who wanted Cuomo to do more to enforce NY's quarantine rules for people from states with more Covid cases, you should know that they are randomly stopping people who drive in the George Washington Bridge with out-of-state license plates.

And then what happens?

In Toronto you get in person checks and phone calls daily to make sure you quarantine.
What happens in ny? Nj?

amother

Amethyst

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 12:06 am

wiki wrote:

What about the NY's vacationing in hot spots and coming back without quarantine? They have nothing from stopping only out of state plates.

amother

Ivory

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 1:04 am

GreenEyes26 wrote:

Oh, I see. It’s not the total lack of social distancing, mask wearing or common sense during a pandemic that’s causing an uptick in cases, it’s “no travel restrictions”.

Got it. Blame anyone except yourselves.

Oh, I see. These communities, who for the most part have had a total lack of social distancing, mask wearing, and common sense during a pandemic (your words) since MAY, have only started to see an uptick NOW, at the end of the summer with all its out of state visitors. But no, it's not the travel.

Got it. Blame what feels most comfortable for you even when logic so clearly dictates otherwise.

amother

Taupe

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 7:12 am

amother [ Ivory ] wrote:

While I think travel has a ton to do with it - 1 person can bring it to an area with no cases.
I have a feeling the dropping antibodies have a lot to do it.
April, may, June ppl were still returning from Florida and there was no resurgence but now there is.
It’s possible that with the dropping antibodies more ppl are starting to be asymptomatic carriers spreading it through the community.

Where I live ppl have been taking zero precautions since shavous. That is 4 months with zero hospital transports and almost no cases.
How is that even possible if not wearing masks no SD causes it. For 4 months nothing happened. (And nothing is yet bH)
(I still SD and wear a mask outside my home - so I’m an outsider watching the community flaunt every rule and be fine - I think it makes others who are being so careful mad that nothing is happening)

nchr

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 7:21 am

amother [ Taupe ] wrote:

That's not entirely true - there have been isolated cases for 4 months now - no really large events that bring together all ages and stages. Now people are returning from hot spots, from camp, getting bolder and making larger chasunas and exposing all age groups at a single time. It is not epidemiologically possible for everyone to have had the virus and developed immunity but some people's protection should be enough to keep the cases very isolated and protect those who need (I.e. person - store - grocery - grandma).

However, when you put them into a super spreader situation (shul Rosh Hashana, shul Purim, Large Chasunas etc ) you cannot protect the herd and you'll see cases (I.e. traveler or sick idnivudal attend a wedding and most are fine due to immunity and don't bring it home but the vulnerable are not protected by the herd via a chain and a direct exposure which is more likely in an indoor superspreader situation). I don't think we need to panic but we need to be smart enough to understand there are some things that need to be put in check like unbearably large weddings and something for the elderly this yomtov.

The flaunting of laws, regardless of the outcome, is a disgrace. There is simply no excuse for not wearing a mask or for having 300 ppl at a chasunos - it's not necessary. However, it is a cultural situation that will take generations to rectify.

Mameh Shaineh

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 8:28 am

naturalmom5 wrote:

BOTTOM LINE

How many Villiamsburgers were put on a respirator de vuch...

So basically you learnt nothing from the nightmare our NY and NJ communities went through after Purim.

By the time there are people on respirators, it's too late - it's already spreading.

Hopefully, this time, since there is still a nice chunk of the population with antibodies - again, hopefully - it won't spread as wildly as the first time. But there are reports of reinfection so we can't know for sure if people still do have those antibodies or maybe even if there's a different strain. There's one such proven case in Hong Kong - which means there are more, but only one was clearly proven through testing of the virus itself. In any case, it needs to be kept in check and any reports of positives - as there are now - should mean that we change our behavior.

Even positives in BP should mean a change in behavior in Williamsburg because there's so much intermingling of our neighborhoods that it's only a matter of time.

amother

Taupe

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 8:45 am

nchr wrote:

Right after shavous I went to a Hall for a chadinah and it was a regular crowd. Maybe only 100 for eating. But 300 for dancing I was shocked and I had to leave. Full size weddings have been happening in ny and Lakewood since 2 weeks after shavous. It’s not new and nothing happened all these months.

BAsed on what we’ve been told 1-2 isolated cases 2 months ago should’ve caused a huge outbreak by now with weddings, bar mitzvahs and camps in full swing. There were camp plays with packed auditoriums. But that didn’t start happening until now.

Mameh Shaineh

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 8:46 am

amother [ Amethyst ] wrote:

This is not for us to decide.
In my opinion, it's not a matter of pekuach nefesh because by now everyone is a carrier.

What does that even mean?

Without knowing what that means, I can say with absolute certainty that NOT "everyone is a carrier."

If by carrier you mean someone who is asymptomatic but can spread the disease - which is the actual definition of carrier - then no, that's obviously not the case.

If by carrier you mean someone with antibodies - which is NOT the definition of carrier - then again no. Not everyone has antibodies. Some never had it and some already lost it.

nchr

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 8:49 am

amother [ Taupe ] wrote:

That's not entirely true. The guests were different. Many people did not have grandparents. I had a relative's Chasuna in KJ right after Shavuous - it was a limited crowd and the grandparents did not go inside of the hall. I don't think that would be the case today. Also, many chasunos, by definition are smaller in the summer due to lower attendance. I just don't think we had the same level of intermingling of ages mixed with intermingling from multiple destinations (travel, camp, colonies, etc.) under one roof until the last few weeks. Plus, everyone feels a lot safer now due to the low positivity rate and I think that sense of security has led to things like grandparents coming indoors, but also to the people who just returned from SC or FL coming inside too.

ETA: What I wanted to bring out was not that the virus was missing but that it wasn't being exposed to individuals who were likely to be high risk until more recently. Therefore, it was more like isolated, undetected cases. The cases are still isolated, but some are not undetected because they are also occurring in some at risk individuals.

Last edited by nchr on Wed, Aug 26 2020, 9:01 am; edited 1 time in total

Mameh Shaineh

Wed, Aug 26 2020, 8:57 am

amother [ Taupe ] wrote:

Until recently. Several new cases have been linked to weddings in BP, Lakewood & Monsey.

There are also some new cases in Flatbush, Williamsburg and Crown Heights.

There are also new hospitalizations, some in ICU.

According to an internal memo from Flatbush Hatzolah, a 57 year old man from BP was taken into the hospital this weekend and is critically ill on a vent.