Can someone in Israel explain the lockdown

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shabbatiscoming

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:00 am

OP seems to have disappeared.
OP, once again, are you even from israel? Do you live here?
What in the world was your point in starting such a thread. I think this thread needs to either be deleted or locked.

Teomima

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:12 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

"Blood on their souls". Hyperbole, much?

Here in the US, if we don't have schools, none of us can get to work. And many of us HAVE to work to put bread on the table. So how, as a Rabbi, would you advise any of us? Just say that we should rely on the kind donations of you, personally? Are you going to support my family? Or the other 400 families that send to our school?

Schools needed to open, they need to open, for society to function.

OP is not in Israel.

shabbatiscoming

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:16 am

Teomima wrote:

OP is not in Israel.

Ah, I missed that part. But the question still remains, why is she so interested in all of this? It really seems like she was looking for a fight or argument or something.....

Teomima

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:18 am

shabbatiscoming wrote:

Ah, I missed that part. But the question still remains, why is she so interested in all of this? It really seems like she was looking for a fight or argument or something.....

I agree. This thread is pointless and belonged under politics. It's such a shame so many of us thought she was genuinely interested in our situation before realizing she had an agenda.

FranticFrummie

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:20 am

Teomima wrote:

I agree. This thread is pointless and belonged under politics. It's such a shame so many of us thought she was genuinely interested in our situation before realizing she had an agenda.

Still, she raised some points that were worth discussing.

Not that this hasn't been discussed ad nauseum already.

Teomima

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:22 am

FranticFrummie wrote:

Still, she raised some points that were worth discussing.

Not that this hasn't been discussed ad nauseum already.

Sure, if people want to get sucked into a thread that raises these questions, no problem. But don't do it under the guise of curiosity regarding the situation in Israel and how we're dealing with the pandemic. Bring it up in politics, or interesting discussions.

FranticFrummie

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:26 am

Teomima wrote:

Agreed - and people posting anon when it's not about protecting sensitive information is against the board rules.

I REALLY wish this rule was enforced more. It would stop a lot of the inflammatory trolling.

If I could, I would turn off anon posting for everything except forums that are related to physical and emotional issues (intimacy, shalom bayis, fertility, etc.)

Teomima

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:29 am

FranticFrummie wrote:

Elfrida

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 6:46 am

Ok, so Israelis who want to carry on talking about the lockdown, please head for the Lockdown thread in the Israeli forum. We don't have to agree, but at least we all know what we are dealing with.

Anyone else who wants to start a discussion of the value of lockdowns in general, please go ahead, without pretending that it is an Israeli problem. A number of other governments around the world are also tightening restrictions, and considering second partial lockdowns, so it is relelvent to everybody.

Anyone with genuine questions about how Israel is coping, please feel free to ask them on a separate thread.

imasoftov

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 7:36 am

SixOfWands wrote:

In Israel?

In any case, the exemption in the US is known as the US Constitution. I'm sorry you find those who adhere to it to be "hypocrates" [sic].

I couldn't find a photo of a crate of hypos but here's one of a box.

amother

Coral

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 7:45 am

FranticFrummie wrote:

Please don't. I was treated very badly by a poster a while back. She was gratuitously nasty and tried to make assumptions about me based on previous posts. I thought about leaving, but I really enjoy the collective wisdom here, so I stayed. Since then, I only post as another. I don't post anything in threads that are not anonymous enabled.

The internet is not a cozy little coffee klatch. Even this site isn't necessarily a safe space. My situation was upsetting, not unsafe, but it reminded me of the need to protect myself. If I can't do that, I don't want to be here.

ora_43

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 8:27 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

What's your definition of "very well"? It didn't work well. If you were planning on lowering the spread, then you didn't need to do that with a total lockdown, as you see here. If you were planning on eradicating the virus, you didn't.

Basically, you're ensuring that you inconvenience the entire society and economy as long and drawn out as humanly possible, while also doing nothing to actually save your society from getting covid. Because they will. It's as simple as that.

This is high school math.

I'm not saying that to be patronizing. I assume that most people don't use high school math, and don't remember it very well.

But that's the issue - the logic of this is the logic of exponential curves, and t0, and growth rates, and multiple interdependent curves, and simple terms like "lower" or "higher" spread, or eradicate vs don't eradicate, don't capture all of what's going on.

Long story short -

For society to function, we need to keep the total number of daily cases under a certain number. Let's say 2,000. Anything over that, and a few Very Bad Things happen:

1. Hospitals can't properly care for patients.

2. Too many people in key positions are getting sick and/or going into quarantine. For example, as of today 1 in every 9 staffers at a key local hospital are in quarantine due to covid exposure. That's way too many for the hospital to function properly. Similarly, nearly all teachers at one of my kids' schools were recently exposed; a school obviously can't function with 80% of teachers absent. (ETA - it also becomes borderline-impossible to keep it out of nursing homes)

3. A significant number of people can't shop, or go to work, or,... etc, because they are high risk. If spread is limited, people who are (say) diabetic, or pregnant, or over age 50 can safely shop and take the bus and work. If not - then not. And who's going to bring them food, or drive them around, or cover their hours? Who's going to convince 55-year-old teachers to risk death for the type of salary teachers earn? This is not a small group of people. This is a big chunk of the workforce.

To keep the total number of cases per day under that number, we need to control two things:

1. The number of cases we start with.

2. Growth.

If we start with 5,000 cases a day (where we are now), then even if we get the growth down to 1 (each sick person infects an average of 1 other person), we'll still be over our target.

If we start with 10 cases a day, then even if growth is above 1 - say, 1.1 - we'll be OK for a while.

Lockdowns are about reducing #1. When we do a lockdown, we get the starting point down to, hopefully, something like 2,000 cases a day instead of 5,000. From there, we can tackle growth.

So the tl;dr version is, we don't need lockdowns to reduce spread - we need them to get the starting point down, and then on top of that we need to reduce spread.

ora_43

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 9:05 am

amother [ Coral ] wrote:

Nobody is asking for a cozy little coffee klatch. But there are rules of etiquette everywhere people interact, even online.

One of the rules here is to keep anonymous posting to a minimum. It's not my rule, but if I had to guess as to why - non-anonymous posting is what makes this an online community, and not just another website. It also helps keep the trolls away, and helps keep things civil (studies show that the more anonymous posting is allowed, the more vicious and racist websites tend to get).

I'm sorry you were treated badly. But I agree with FF.

CiCi

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 2:34 pm

amother [ Maroon ] wrote:

Yes, there is an exemption for protests. There is a huge protest going on every evening on Balfour St in Jerusalem, which is almost like a party, complete with dancing, costumes, edgy performance art. They are calling for Netanyahu to step down due to alleged corruption.

Since it's legal to travel to demonstrate, many people just drove back from extended family after Rosh Hashana (which was illegal) and said they were going to a demonstration, either in Balfour or the ones in Bnei Brak (which have gotten to the point of burning trash cans and calling the police Nazis). I am not sure the ones in Bnei Brak have police approval. In any case, 'going to a demonstration' provided lots of people with excuses for travelling. It became a well known joke.

One guy even declared his kiosk a demonstration site and opened it despite the lockdown. He was fined 5000 nis, I guess the police didn't buy that one.

Shaa, don't say it as it is, you only netted one like. These are the liberals protesting and nobody cares what they do. Just write the Chareidim are protesting and it's awful and they are spreading the virus and you'll get 50 likes.

SixOfWands

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 2:43 pm

shabbatiscoming wrote:

Ah, I missed that part. But the question still remains, why is she so interested in all of this? It really seems like she was looking for a fight or argument or something.....

I'm not the OP, but I was interested in what is going on there, and I haven't heard much about it from friends in Israel. I do thank everyone for the information.

shabbatiscoming

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 3:43 pm

CiCi wrote:

Uch, please, we know that it is every single type of person, from secular to charedi, who are breaking the laws/regulations.
Trust me when I tell you that the police care what the secular people are doing. 7000 people were given tickets over rosh hashana for breaking the lock down. Do you think those were all charedim? I highly doubt that.

imorethanamother

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 3:49 pm

Teomima wrote:

I agree. This thread is pointless and belonged under politics. It's such a shame so many of us thought she was genuinely interested in our situation before realizing she had an agenda.

I don't think the thread is pointless, I was also curious what's going on in Israel. I didn't realize that one had to be an Israeli to protest the idea of lockdown. Much like all the Israelis on this thread don't hesitate to criticize Americans, especially our behavior during Corona. (Shabbatiscoming - I remember you distinctly)

I agree that this site can be extremely nasty. I myself have had to take long breaks after an attack, and they come with regularity. I think everyone should be anonymous - and anyone who wants to be has the right to be, no matter what. If you don't like arguing with anonymous people, then don't. You don't have to respond to any thread, at any time. It's not an incumbent mitzvah or anything.

Success10

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 3:50 pm

shabbatiscoming wrote:

It's true the country is not picking on Chareidim, they're actually being very forgiving. But she's right in the fact that Chareidi-bashing posts do get more likes.

ora_43

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 4:11 pm

imorethanamother wrote:

And we were criticized for it pretty harshly, do you remember that part? I was told to shut up and go away for saying that Israeli hospitals had similar outcomes to NYC hospitals (in terms of % of ICU patients passing away in the first few weeks, and % of people dying very shortly after admittance - obviously not total patient deaths).

I agree that Americans should be allowed to ask whatever they want about Israel.

Quote:

I think everyone should be anonymous - and anyone who wants to be has the right to be, no matter what. If you don't like arguing with anonymous people, then don't. You don't have to respond to any thread, at any time. It's not an incumbent mitzvah or anything.

Nobody has to be on this site at all. People who don't like the rules are free to head on over to Reddit, or yahoo, or any one of those other warm, friendly message boards that let posters do and say whatever they like.

ora_43

Tue, Sep 22 2020, 4:21 pm

imorethanamother wrote:

The problem with the first lockdown is that so many people here like to announce that they "worked". What worked? You got the fire down to a simmer, and now the fire grows back. At best, you will get it down to another simmer, and then it will grow back, over and over. Until most people have gotten it and gotten over it.

Yes, that's the idea. Although it's also possible that there will be a vaccine.

If anything, this sounds like a pro-lockdown metaphor. I mean, this is basically what we do with actual forest fires - keep them under control, until they run out of fuel and burn themselves out. Fight for every swath of forest, even if ultimately our best efforts can only reduce the size of the fire by 50%, or even 30%.

What we don't do is say that if we can't extinguish the whole thing all at once, we might as well not do anything.

Quote:

In fact, I would argue that the summertime might be the most opportune time to get Covid, before the winter hits and with it, the combination of the flu AND covid.

The combination of flu season and covid is scary because of the sheer number of people who will be sick.

But right now we already have too many people who are sick. Deliberately letting covid spread and overcrowd the hospitals now, so that they won't be overcrowded later, wouldn't make much sense.

ETA - also, if there is going to be a winter surge - ie, if transmission is about to get faster - getting our starting point down now is all the more important.

Last edited by ora_43 on Tue, Sep 22 2020, 4:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

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