For the 700th time

Java

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:20 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Yet Covid numbers are going up? How is that?

That's because social distancing is not perfect- there are always going to be people who don't care etc... so just like Covid would be much worse if nobody at all was social distancing, the flu would also be much worse.

Elfrida

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:22 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Yet Covid numbers are going up? How is that?

Corona was already present at the start of the winter. The social distancing has prevented flu from really getting going this year. Also, corona seems to be more contagious than flu.

amother

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:22 pm

bananas4bananas wrote:

But if Covid numbers go up, like they’re saying it is not so high, the flu numbers should go up as well.

Java

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:23 pm

amother [ OP ] wrote:

But if Covid numbers go up, like they’re saying it is not so high, the flu numbers should go up as well.

Nobody said that there are zero cases of flu this season, just that it makes sense for there to be less flu than usual
What's your agenda here OP?

amother

Seafoam

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:25 pm

Flu vaccine were also much more prevalent this year. My family never takes them but this year it was non-optional. Same for most people I know. I imagine the number of people vaccinated as in comparison to the past is also impacted the prevalence.

DrMom

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:29 pm

Both flu and covid-19 are increasing now.

Flu always increases in winter, but is way down this year *compared to last winter* because of masks and SD. And because of increased flu shots this year vs. last winter.

Nobody is comparing covid-19 this December vs last December because there was no covid-19 last December.

Last edited by DrMom on Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

gold21

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:35 pm

CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine. In general, current flu vaccines tend to work better against influenza B and influenza A(H1N1) viruses and offer lower protection against influenza A(H3N2) viruses. See “Does flu vaccine effectiveness vary by type or subtype?” and “Why is flu vaccine typically less effective against influenza A H3N2 viruses?” for more information.

Elfrida

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:35 pm

DrMom wrote:

Nobody is comparing covid-19 this December vs last December because there was no covid-19 last December.

There was but only in China. And it didn't even have a name yet. And they weren't even sure if human-to-human transmission was possible. It seems so long ago.

gold21

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:36 pm

amother [ Lemon ] wrote:

Well, it's definitely more effective than not getting the flu shot Laugh

Yes, of course, but could the vaccine really explain such a significant decrease in flu infections so far this season?

It's 40 to 60 percent effective in seasons when the vaccine is considered well matched to the flu. Some seasons, it is not considered a good match. I have no idea how well matched it is this year.

Elfrida

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:42 pm

gold21 wrote:

Yes, of course, but could the vaccine really explain such a significant decrease in flu infections so far this season?

Increased uptake of the vaccine, together with social distancing and masks, and more stringent isolation of people showing any respiratory symptoms, and reduced international travel can definitely account for the reduced flu infections.

In the past anyone who was thinking that they had flu would probably have worked through it and infected half their office. This year, as soon as anyone coughs, they are staying home.

gold21

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 12:50 pm

Elfrida wrote:

How much has uptake of the vaccine increased and how much has prevalence of flu infection this season decreased? Throw in the fact that around half of flu shots fail (40 to 60 percent are effective), and still, the numbers are off.

I wouldn't attribute much to the notoriously fallible flu vaccine. Adults usually don't catch the flu anyway, but younger kids often get the flu even after vaccination.

As for your last paragraph- if that's the case, then why is covid spreading like wildfire?

One is an influenza virus and one is a coronavirus, so they're definitely distinct from one another and not interchangeable. But I think an analysis of this would require a bit more digging and a little less of accepting face-value explanations.

One hypothesis? When one virus strain is virulently circulating, it dominates the virus competition and leaves other viruses at a deficit.

Anyone have any others?

amother

Aqua

Mon, Dec 21 2020, 1:00 pm

People are still getting the flu, but not spreading it as much because of quarantining for COVID symptoms. A guy in my son's yeshiva had the flu. He went to the Dr. and got tested, so they know for sure it is flu. As soon as he had any symptoms they isolated him for fear of COVID. That never would have happened in the past - he just would have stayed in his dorm room with the flu and infected all his roommates...