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Forum
-> Interesting Discussions
Are polls accurate?
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| Yes |
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9% |
[ 10 ] |
| No |
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42% |
[ 46 ] |
| Not sure |
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17% |
[ 19 ] |
| Do not select this option |
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9% |
[ 10 ] |
| This option shouldn't be selected either. If I vote this, I did not read the answer, or I am deliberately messing with the accuracy of the poll. |
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22% |
[ 24 ] |
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| Total Votes : 109 |
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amother
OP
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 Thu, Nov 14 2019, 12:49 pm
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I wonder if people really answer accurately.
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ora_43
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Thu, Nov 14 2019, 1:04 pm
People answer accurately and the polls aren't accurate.
Even if people are 100% honest you're not going to get meaningful results unless the people answering are a representative sample of the population.
And they basically never are. Especially on a site like this, where the group of people answering the poll are specifically the ones who found it interesting.
Look at this post, for example. The only reason I'm writing this is because I have Opinions about statistics and social science research. If I didn't, I wouldn't have opened the thread.
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singleagain
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Thu, Nov 14 2019, 1:04 pm
I don't know if it matters so much as ppl answering accurately.
More,
is the question worded clearly?
Does the question continue in the post, vs being in the title?
Is the answer subjective or not?
Do the answers overlap?
(I once saw a poll asking about the age answers were 20-25; 25-30 ... If you're 25 which do you pick?)
Also, polls always skew towards the type of ppl who want to answer polls.
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amother
Pewter
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Thu, Nov 14 2019, 1:20 pm
| singleagain wrote: | I don't know if it matters so much as ppl answering accurately.
More,
is the question worded clearly?
Does the question continue in the post, vs being in the title?
Is the answer subjective or not?
Do the answers overlap?
(I once saw a poll asking about the age answers were 20-25; 25-30 ... If you're 25 which do you pick?)
Also, polls always skew towards the type of ppl who want to answer polls. |
Good answer, esp the bolded.
Also wondering where the age poll is, the results, and if demographics have changed.
Spin off question-is the voting system (for politics) more accurate?
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amother
OP
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Thu, Nov 14 2019, 1:22 pm
| amother [ Pewter ] wrote: |
Spin off question-is the voting system (for politics) more accurate? |
The political voting system has you voting for candidates with the options already skewed: one candidate favored by the left, one favored by the right.
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Amarante
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Thu, Nov 14 2019, 1:29 pm
Polls make money only if they are reliable and it is quite easy to ascertain whether polls for a political candidate are reliable - because there will be election results. Candidates wouldn't spend significant money on internal polls if they weren't effective.
For the most part polls are reliable - some seem to skew a bit one way or another and there are aggregate polling organizations that rank polls - let people know historically how they might have skewed - and also aggregate results. Nate Silver's website 385 does this very well.
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amother
OP
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Thu, Nov 14 2019, 2:19 pm
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Political polling is problematic because online leans toward younger people and phone leans toward older people, while the Amish are left out altogether.
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33055
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Sat, Nov 16 2019, 8:54 pm
| Amarante wrote: | Polls make money only if they are reliable and it is quite easy to ascertain whether polls for a political candidate are reliable - because there will be election results. Candidates wouldn't spend significant money on internal polls if they weren't effective.
For the most part polls are reliable - some seem to skew a bit one way or another and there are aggregate polling organizations that rank polls - let people know historically how they might have skewed - and also aggregate results. Nate Silver's website 385 does this very well. |
Polls also make money if they give the results that person or organization wants to here. Those results make news and influence elections.
538 was way off on the presidental election. They were less off than others, but they were still so significantly off that it is an embarrassment.
Polls are skewed for many other reasons.
Trump supporters may fear the violence or the name and shame threats from the left and not give accurate answers.
Pollsters ask biased questions. The bias may be subconscious or they make be doing it to make the news. When the entire main stream news has an agenda, the results of polls that back their agenda get emphasized.
In general votes on the right are weighed stronger than votes on the left. This needs to be taken into consideration. A conservative in Nebraska carries a stronger vote than a lefty from California. Once you lose a state, it doesn't matter by how much.
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amother
Brown
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Sat, Nov 16 2019, 8:59 pm
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Obviously not just look at the last US presidential election!
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gamanit
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Tue, Nov 19 2019, 11:50 am
| Amarante wrote: | Polls make money only if they are reliable and it is quite easy to ascertain whether polls for a political candidate are reliable - because there will be election results. Candidates wouldn't spend significant money on internal polls if they weren't effective.
For the most part polls are reliable - some seem to skew a bit one way or another and there are aggregate polling organizations that rank polls - let people know historically how they might have skewed - and also aggregate results. Nate Silver's website 385 does this very well. |
Election polls might actually be more accurate than other polls because the same people who answer polls also go vote.
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Cheiny
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Tue, Nov 19 2019, 12:24 pm
| amother [ OP ] wrote: | | I wonder if people really answer accurately. |
They are absolutely not, proof being that if they were, we’d be suffering right now through a Hilary presidency, G-d forbid!
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amother
OP
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Tue, Nov 19 2019, 1:05 pm
| amother [ OP ] wrote: | | What an absolute madwoman. |
Why was this joke reported?
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33055
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Tue, Nov 19 2019, 1:34 pm
| gamanit wrote: | | Election polls might actually be more accurate than other polls because the same people who answer polls also go vote. |
Hardly.
The famous "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline was based on polls. The poll was inaccurate because it was a telephone poll. The people who supported Dewey were wealthier in general than the people who supported Truman. Hence, they had telephones.
Hillary had more votes than Trump. It doesn't matter who carried the popular vote. The only vote that counts is the electoral college. That's why the polls were shop off. They should have been weighted polls.
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gamanit
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Tue, Nov 19 2019, 1:38 pm
| Squishy wrote: | Hardly.
The famous "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline was based on polls. The poll was inaccurate because it was a telephone poll. The people who supported Dewey were wealthier in general than the people who supported Truman. Hence, they had telephones.
Hillary had more votes than Trump. It doesn't matter who carried the popular vote. The only vote that counts is the electoral college. That's why the polls were shop off. They should have been weighted polls. |
More accurate doesn't mean accurate. It means comparatively. I'd assume other polls are even less accurate.
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amother
Dodgerblue
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Tue, Nov 19 2019, 1:39 pm
| amother [ OP ] wrote: | | Why was this joke reported? |
I guess some people didn't take it as a joke.
You know, the whole "sarcasm doesn't work on the internet" thing.
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amother
OP
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Tue, Nov 19 2019, 2:05 pm
| amother [ Dodgerblue ] wrote: | I guess some people didn't take it as a joke.
You know, the whole "sarcasm doesn't work on the internet" thing. |
It's a pretty common joke on the Internet.
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