Feel like they keep moving the goal posts

amother

Oak

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 4:21 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

....exactly? So I can’t impinge on your rights anymore than you or the government can impinge on mine.

If you’re scared of getting infected you have every right to stay inside

And if you don't like the fact that I don't obey traffic rules, you could just stay home. Nobody is forcing you to drive or cross the street.

amother

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 4:24 am

amother [ Oak ] wrote:

I haven't given a justification?

The reason is that the virus isn't done being a massive threat yet and lots of people would get very sick and die if we did nothing.

What else would the point be?

But that is going to happen whether we open 2 weeks from now or 2 months from now. It’s inevitable. There MIGHT be a vaccine in 18 months. Scientists have yet to be successful in making any type of coronavirus vaccine so there’s no guarantee of a vaccine. Even if there is one, it’s possible the virus will mutate making the vaccine a moot point. All of this is to say we aren’t going to stay locked down until there is a vaccine so the increase in death is inevitable.

So again what is the point of the 2 week extension?

amother

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 4:27 am

amother [ Oak ] wrote:

And if you don't like the fact that I don't obey traffic rules, you could just stay home. Nobody is forcing you to drive or cross the street.

I agree. I’m not complaining that anyone is making me do that. But I’m comfortable that the chance I die because someone isn’t following traffic rules is low enough to justify that it’s worth it for me to go outside.

I feel the same way about coronavirus.

amother

Oak

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 4:33 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

I understand what you are saying here. I wonder as well regarding time frame. In other words, won't it take many more weeks until the threat is mitigated.

I suppose where we differ is that I DO believe that we are buying time that will reap major benefits. Such as knowledge of the virus and how to treat it (successful medications ARE being found and used), as well as producing and improving tests and testing methods, hospital resources, etc.

amother

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 4:38 am

amother [ Oak ] wrote:

That’s legitimate and I agree that advances will be made with time. But theoretically that argument could be used to extend the lockdown indefinitely. The same thought applies, the longer we lockdown the more possible advances we have. But we are locking down at an enormous cost, not just financially which goes without saying, but emotionally and health wise. How many people are going to have delayed diabetes and cancer diagnoses because their annual checkup was put off for two months or more? How many more people are going to suffer from severe domestic violence or child abuse because their abuser is home all day and stressed?

I’m concerned that without concrete milestones and things for people to look forward to, we are putting ourselves in a position that will be nearly impossible to get out of.

amother

Oak

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 4:50 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

My feeling is that there is no exact answer, no precise measure that would yield anything close to perfect. That like much of life in this world, it's just our best collective attempt to use the limited knowledge and resources we have to do as good as we can.

etky

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 5:14 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

So, with this sort of thinking+ the shutdown's tremendously detrimental effect on the economy in mind, Israel is heading towards opening up on Sunday. It's unclear how and at what pace this will happen or what safeguards will be put in place, but that is the direction we are now moving in.
I hope we don't end up like Sweden, with a 10% mortality rate.

amother

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 5:19 am

etky wrote:

Sweden doesn’t have a 10% mortality rate. It’s literally impossible to have any idea of any country’s mortality rate since we have no idea how many people are infected.

If Sweden continues as it is doing, it will likely have a very sharp peak of a large number of deaths and then a drastic downtrend as they get herd immunity. Then once they obtain herd immunity, they’ll be done. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has similar deaths per capita as other countries just in a shorter time span.

etky

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 5:36 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

Who knows? We can at most speculate if the herd immunity theory will be successful.
Even if not 10%, their mortality rate is now much higher than other countries in Europe and - at over 1330 dead- just about ten times the number of fatalities in Israel which has a similar sized population.

amother

White

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 5:39 am

amother [ Green ] wrote:

It sounds like we are living in some undeveloped country with an uneducated government.

Remember when the CDC said; masks won't help you?

Its 5 weeks later.
On Saturday we will be fined if we are found without a mask.

Oh, holy CDC, can you explain to us what happened? Does it really take 5 weeks for you to find out that masks do help?

I'm embarrased.

(Yes I know why they said it doesn't help. Because they knew there is a shortage of masks. Now that there is no more shortage masks are suddenly a must.)

We are kept in the dark. Only after the fact will we know what the calculations were but I won't be surprised if the reasons for the extended quarantine weren't exactly in our favor.

Ye I hear... 8 strains... getting it again... I hear.

I will never believe the government or the CDC again.

Big provaxxer that I am.... Things have changed.

I never believed them.

Fauci is just a name, he has no clue whats gonna be...

I secretly hoped my family will get it, so we'll be immune. (If God wanted to take me, He has His ways)
Noone by us got it ( and we were exposed)
My neighbors were quarantined and wore masks to take out the garbage. They got it anyway.

And people here really believe that someone that davens outside will kill them. Even though there is no proof. Just bc the CDC said 6 ft...and the rabbonim have to echo what the govt says...

Why am I even getting started?

I have emunah that Hashem is in charge. If you want to stay inside, good for you. Stop bitching what others do.

amother

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 5:49 am

etky wrote:

Actually they have a lower death rate per capita then Belgium, Spain, Italy, France and Switzerland to name a few.

Israel is unique in that it’s not a hotspot for Chinese tourists so they had less infected people entering it initially. Europe has a lot of Chinese visitors and so it had a lot more imported infections.

etky

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 6:28 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

And much higher than other neighboring Scandinavian countries that have stricter lockdowns.
As for imported infection in Israel, a very significant percentage of infection was imported by Israelis - many returning from ski trips in Italy, France, Bulgaria and other European destinations as well as from the US a bit later on and also by some European tourists.
Thank goodness for the strict quarantine policy for travellers that was enacted here. Had it been enacted even earlier and retroactively - before Purim especially - there would have been a lot less spread of infection to begin with.
Israel actually attracts a good amount of tourism from China and other Asian countries but there wasn't much infection originating from tourists from those areas because flights were stopped in a timely fashion.

WhatFor

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 6:44 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

To slow the spread. A very short while ago there was no social distancing and now over 226,000 ppl have tested positive in NYS, and that doesn't account for the significant portion of people who didn't qualify for a test. So it's still very prevalent in NY. If everyone who has it stays in right now, they can't spread it, eventually (hopefully) they won't be contagious, and when the stay at home measures are lifted, they won't be a threat to people.

If everyone who has it can mingle with anyone and everyone, it will continue to spread like crazy. The hospitals will not be able to treat the amount of people who require medical attention and even more people will die. Are 16,106 deaths in NY State not enough for us?

If the restrictions are lifted when fewer people have it, fewer people will be spreading it. But the truth is, they probably need rampant testing available in order to lift restrictions, otherwise it will just relapse to before.

amother

Lawngreen

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 7:10 am

Trust the government, and do whatever they say. Whether it makes sense or not, whether it bankrupts you or causes you any other problems, you must obey all government mandates. It always works out- at least that's what they tell us. We mere mortals are far too ignorant to question the overwhelming wisdom of government authorities. We should be grateful that there are smart people in the government to save us from thinking for ourselves.

amother

Vermilion

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 7:43 am

We are buying time.

Time to get more data on how this virus kills, whom, and why. Some people who ought to survive this are succumbing. Why.

There are new observations, studies, and reports every day. Science is a process. What was speculated two months ago (masks) was supported by evidence two weeks ago. Why drive millions of people crazy for a maybe? Look at how mad people get even when it's confirmed.

Time to figure out which treatments actually help, which do more harm than good, and perhaps even develop new ones. Vaccines, antibodies - will they help? We don't even know yet if herd immunity will last more than two months, so allowing millions to die for a maybe is a risky gamble.

Time to look at long(er)-term effects of Covid. It doesn't make much sense to encourage all of humanity to catch a disease that may wipe us all out somewhere down the line.

We need time to develop and implement a large scale quick testing system that can get us back to normal without costing lives.

We need the infection rate to go down enough so that we can reopen slowly and still have some "wiggle room" before infection rates turn catastrophic again. This might be a long game of months of ups and downs. Rates are dropping, so that's good, but we aren't in the safe zone yet from a large scale perspective (IOW this isn't only about you and me).

We need time, and we need patience.

amother

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 7:48 am

amother [ Vermilion ] wrote:

I agree with you in theory and it would be nice if we could just all stay inside for all the time we need to and then re-emerge and be a remotely similar society to the one we were when we went in. But that’s just not remotely feasible. Almost no one is saying that it’s possible for you the lockdown to last 5 more months. Politicians are talking in terms of weeks not months. So now that they’ve decided they’re going to have to open society in a matter of 4, 6, or 8 weeks, what is the determining factor behind which one of those they choose?

amother

Vermilion

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 8:00 am

amother [ OP ] wrote:

I think we're starting to see some preliminary specifics for reopening. For example, Cuomo was reporting the original and current R0 number (infection rate) and explaining why it needs to get low enough to even attempt to reopen. They want to do it gradually, so in case numbers shoot up again, they can shut down just small parts of the economy again, without needing full-scale shutdowns.

I think that's the process that will take months.

amother

Orchid

Fri, Apr 17 2020, 8:08 am

You're forgetting the fact that neighboring states have not yet peaked--what does it matter if NYC has peaked if people hop back and forth between NJ and Connecticut? It's not like it's a sealed border. They're making a coordinated effort to reopen because it's necessary. I know it's painful. I was praying the news after YT would be better than it was.