Do you think the virus is over?

amother

Seagreen

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 7:20 am

I don't think this virus is over by a long stretch though it does seem to me from the data that the heat is having some effect on the current circulation. Though since it is still circulating, that doesn't bode well for the upcoming winter.

It's now mostly circulating in the southern hemisphere so it does seem to be gravitating to areas which are heading into winter season (like the flu does).

And to those who will say, but look at the second wave in Israel - 350 diagnoses from school students is hardly a second wave, if anything. It's circulating, but at most slower growth rates, presumably because of the heat.

LovesHashem

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 7:23 am

amother [ Seagreen ] wrote:

It only started with 1 case.
With the crowds gathering for protests, at the beach, at parties, and weddings - it will only go further and further up.

The virus can double easily. On Sunday there will be 150 new cases. It turns into 500 new cases that friday.

amother

Seagreen

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 8:21 am

LovesHashem wrote:

It can happen like that. The questions are though:

1. Will there actually be that growth with the current hot temps?
2. Even if there is that growth, perhaps the cases will be midler in general because of the heat?

So much is unknown...

freilich

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 8:22 am

amother [ Cerise ] wrote:

Of course you are. What’s with all the ladies in Williamsburg boro Park etc, they’ll want to start shopping in manhattan at some point so you have to consider that you will be exposed here

I live in manhattan and I guess here the notion that it is gone is all but a daydream. It’s still very real, the threat is real, and we have to do what we need to do from our part to maintain the flattened curve

I wonder why I find this post offensive!

Never mind, shop in Manhattan, what for? Gonna be quite a while for stores to rebuild themselves.

amother

Aquamarine

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 8:43 am

amother [ Natural ] wrote:

Mishpacha had very good coverage on this exact question this past issue.
(Basically, no. Even if cases are dropping in the frum community, if it is active in the general population we are still at risk. And they bust the myth of herd immunity, as well.) Very informative and important read.

I found their article inaccurate.

They also wrote (and Ami) about porch minyanim being bad, even though there was no basis to it.

Just keep the drama going. Noone said its gone, but the numbers are def better, and it's time to move on with caution.

LovesHashem

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 8:50 am

amother [ Seagreen ] wrote:

Maybe not - but when the climate is lower it will flare up again really bad.
I don' think the cases will be milder. Its the same virus. It just dies in the heat more.

amother

Lavender

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 8:51 am

amother [ Cerise ] wrote:

Are you also afraid of the looters and rioters spreading the virus, or are only the Williamsburg and Boro Park ladies your concern?

Amarante

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 9:09 am

It's not over and lower figures NOW reflect social distancing that was in place two weeks ago in NYC or other places that enforced social distancing.

Also - at least where I live - even though some restrictions have been lifted, almost everyone is wearing masks and trying to practice social distancing. Most people I know are avoiding the kinds of situations that would make social distancing impossible - they aren't eating at restaurants or going to stores except for essential stuff. And they are going to stores which ENFORCE social distancing and which are larger.

Last edited by Amarante on Sun, Jun 07 2020, 9:27 am; edited 1 time in total

amother

Magenta

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 9:19 am

[quote="Zehava"]I’m waiting to see if the protests cause a second wave. If they don’t, there will be lots of questions.[/quote

Yep me too
I read in hamodia is that two Italian doctors say that the virus has lost some potency..

amother

Vermilion

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 10:16 am

LovesHashem wrote:

Maybe not - but when the climate is lower it will flare up again really bad.
I don' think the cases will be milder. Its the same virus. It just dies in the heat more.

And hopefully it won't mutate into a worse version.

amother

Lemon

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 11:07 am

amother [ Babyblue ] wrote:

I know I'm gonna get a lot of back lash.... here goes...

It's a 14 day incubation period.. all the rioters and all the people who gathered around shevuos... just give it 2 weeks or more from then and then u can see if it is all around still...
My family personally r still being extra careful bc it all started with 1 person.. and each person can have different symptoms some more some less etc. All u have to do is be careful before another storm starts (hopefully not)
I know I'm not making sense (English is not my.first language) but if u understand...

You are actually making allot of sense.
I am waiting for the two weeks to pass as well and will take it from there.
I'd assume we are not the only ones thinking the same.

amother

Cerise

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 1:59 pm

trixx wrote:

Uhhh what about the protestors, coming from all over to converge in one central mass.
The frum ladies (that we can presume have some kind of immunity as said above) are literally not the issue.

Uhhhhh. You missed the point I was trying to make, as I was responding to a previous poster.
Poster was saying that in Brooklyn they are anyways immune already and so they are not so worried. So I said, what about when the women or men go out of the community (which will eventually happen sooner than later) coming to manhattan which is still very exposed.
Nothing personal to the ladies of Williamsburg or bp or Brooklyn In general. My point was that they don’t live in a bubble and can very easily bring the virus back to Brooklyn when being exposed in diff towns

amother

Amethyst

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 2:07 pm

Zehava wrote:

I’m waiting to see if the protests cause a second wave. If they don’t, there will be lots of questions.

The issue is this is outside. We know now that the risk outdoors, even when not SD is extremely low. Also many of the protestors are poor and black and they were hit harder than other groups.

Just One

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 2:17 pm

I love in Boro Park. Social distancing has been out the window for the past month. Kids are going to school, stores are open, large lag baomer bonfire crowds, family gatherings for Shavuos, life has gone back to normal for the majority. And still I don't know a single person with the virus now. My doctor also confirmed that she isn't dealing with any active cases now.
They've been doing lots of antibody tests in the community and more than half of my extended family and friends who tested came back positive for antibodies so I'm quite sure we've got some herd immunity.

amother

Seagreen

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 3:04 pm

Viruses go in peaks and waves. The first (and hopefully only, though we have no way to be sure of that) wave may very well be over in several areas.

Though it definitely isn't over everywhere. Global statistics tell a different story. As per CNN:
Globally, confirmed cases are now rising at a rate of more than 100,000 a day over a seven-day period. In April new cases never topped 100,000 in one day. But confirmed daily cases have topped that number in nine of the past 10 days, reaching 130,400 cases on Wednesday.

tigerwife

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 3:20 pm

amother [ Amethyst ] wrote:

The issue is this is outside. We know now that the risk outdoors, even when not SD is extremely low. Also many of the protestors are poor and black and they were hit harder than other groups.

Jews were hit hard as well, even if it wasn’t reported as much.

amother

Bronze

Sun, Jun 07 2020, 3:20 pm

amother [ Seagreen ] wrote:

Actually, now it seems to be peaking in Arizona and Brazil, both areas with heat most of the year.