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-> Coronavirus Health Questions
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amother
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 Sat, Apr 04 2020, 9:17 pm
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I tried reading a few articles but didn’t quite get it... could anybody explain? Thank u
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out-of-towner
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 9:29 pm
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Nobody knows what will happen. This virus is too new and the knowledge keeps changing. Hopefully a vaccine will eventually come out and provide some measure or protection, or maybe those who have had it will develop immunity (as I understand this is unclear at the moment) and the spread will slow. We really don't know at this point.
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amother
Slateblue
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 9:31 pm
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I don't think anyone knows. I hope it's very soon though! We've had enough of this lockdown & being ill already and we're only entering week 3 🙈 Hashem help us all, and keep us safe.
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amother
Turquoise
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 9:36 pm
I think it'll come to an end when herd immunity is achieved. Most medical experts say that will happen when 60% catch it.
Of course if a vaccine comes first that'll do the trick.
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out-of-towner
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 9:52 pm
| amother [ Turquoise ] wrote: | I think it'll come to an end when herd immunity is achieved. Most medical experts say that will happen when 60% catch it.
Of course if a vaccine comes first that'll do the trick. |
IF, and this is a big IF, getting it makes one immune to it. At the moment, this is a subject that is unclear. Just like there are different strains of the flu, it is possible that there are different strains of COVID19.
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amother
Dodgerblue
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 9:54 pm
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let's hope a Vaccine will be out shortly which would cover most strains. Halevei!
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amother
Periwinkle
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 11:27 pm
1. A vaccine
2. Total isolation of all cases (seems difficult in our (USA) democratic society + it’s hard to know who has it without getting loads more testing done efficiently (also an issue in the US now)
3. Immunity (if it works)
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asmileaday
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 11:37 pm
| amother [ Dodgerblue ] wrote: | | let's hope a Vaccine will be out shortly which would cover most strains. Halevei! |
And let's see how many people will refuse to give the vaccine  .
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amother
Lilac
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 11:41 pm
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Einikel
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 11:42 pm
| amother [ Lilac ] wrote: | | How did it end in China? |
Who says it did?! We can’t believe anything from a communist tyrannical regime.
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mig100
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Sat, Apr 04 2020, 11:46 pm
| out-of-towner wrote: | | IF, and this is a big IF, getting it makes one immune to it. At the moment, this is a subject that is unclear. Just like there are different strains of the flu, it is possible that there are different strains of COVID19. |
I am wondering about this also.
Do you have any source for this. I'd be interested in reading
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amother
Olive
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:04 am
| asmileaday wrote: | | And let's see how many people will refuse to give the vaccine . |
Who says the vaccine will be safe and effective? Some vaccines just... aren't.
There's a REASON why people are hesitant about vaccines. And it's not always because "my next door neighbor said" or because of fear of "Big Pharma."
Flu vaccine, according to the Cochrane Review, is of questionable benefit, for example. (It MAY reduce the risk of GETTING the flu from 2% to 1%, but not actually save any lives.)
And not every vaccine prevents transmission. See the pertussis vaccine, for example, which (according to the CDC): "Public health experts cannot rely on herd immunity to protect people from pertussis since ...Acellular pertussis vaccines may not prevent colonization (carrying the bacteria in your body without getting sick) or spread of the bacteria." That's why they don't talk about "wiping out pertussis."
If this hypothetical vaccine is not more effective than the flu vaccine, or it does not prevent people from passing it on to others (who may or may not have immunity from the vaccine themselves), it will be unable to wipe out coronavirus.
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octopus
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:08 am
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I don't know how it will come to a complete end, but I was listening to the radio on friday, and it seems that to be able to get people back into the workforce and open up the economy again there are 3 tests that are out there that a person can take (they really want to do this to clear healthcare workers back into hospitals). I forgot what one test is. Sorry. The other was to test if still have it and if shedding the virus. And the third was the new antibody test to see if you had adequate antibody levels (after catching it and recovering). Probably not available for the regular joe shmoe like you and I.
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dancingqueen
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:13 am
| amother [ Lilac ] wrote: | | How did it end in China? |
They did a complete lockdown of the areas where people were sick.
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Ora in town
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:17 am
An epidemy comes to a complete end if every infected person infects less than one person. The smaller the number (the farther under one), the quicker.
This epidemy could come to an end if "herd immunity" is achieved, I.e. when about 2/3 of the population is immune.
Immunity could come about through a vaccine (which does not yet exist and will take at least one year) or by going through the illness. Which we don't hope for 2/3 of the population, since it would cause millions of deaths.
The other way is strict confinement: if everybody who is infected can be traced and isolated, the virus cannot jump from one person to the next, and it dies out.
this was the case for SARS 1, which was also transmitted by droplet infection (through coughing, breathing, etc.). It was terminated (in humans) after about 10'000 cases and never reappeared (in humans) since 2003.
However, it was easier to confine SARS 1 than SARS 2, because patients became infectious only after onset of symptoms, around day 5. So it was easier to avoid the spread. Very fortunately, because it had much higher lethaltiy rates than SARS 2...
The reason why carriers of SARS 1 could only infect other people once they had clear symptoms is that SARS 1 reproduced only in the lungs, and not in the mouth, while SARS 2 reproduces in the mouth and in the lungs.
The problem with SARS 2 is that it is infectious before there are symptoms, or even without symptoms at all...
so the most efficient solution is to do more testing and find those persons who are infectious, but don't have symptoms.
Swine flu (which is also transmitted through droplets) never disappeared, but a vaccine against it was developed... the spanish flu is also still present, but there is also a vaccine against it, and it is not as mortal as it was in 1918-20, because most people are now immunised against it...
Last edited by Ora in town on Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:28 am; edited 2 times in total
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Ora in town
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:24 am
| Quote: | | How did it end in China? |
Chine took strict confinement measures (absolute lockdown, very strictly enforced), so the rate of propagation went down.
However, we do not know it really ended in China.
Official statistics show a few dozend new cases per day, which is nothing to worry about for the time being. However, it could be that it spreads undected in other parts of China... the way it did in the USA in February and early March...
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amother
Linen
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:26 am
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amother
Turquoise
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:26 am
| Ora in town wrote: | An epidemy comes to a complete end if every infected person infects less than one person. The smaller the number (the farther under one), the quicker.
This epidemy could come to an end if "herd immunity" is achieved, I.e. when about 2/3 of the population is immune.
Immunity could come about through a vaccine (which does not yet exist and will take at least one year) or by going through the illness. Which we don't hope for 2/3 of the population, since it would cause millions of deaths.
The other way is strict confinement: if everybody who is infected can be traced and isolated, the virus cannot jump from one person to the next, and it dies out.
this was the case for SARS I, which was also transmitted by droplet infection (through coughing, breathing, etc.). It was terminated (in humans) after about 10'000 cases and never reappeared (in humans) since 2003.
However, it was easier to confine SARS I than SARS 2, because patients became infectious only after onset of symptoms. So it was easier to avoid the spread.
The problem with SARS 2 is that it is infectious before there are symptoms, or even without symptoms at all...
so the most efficient solution is to do more testing and find those persons who are infectious, but don't have symptoms.
Swine flu (which is also transmitted through droplets) never disappeared, but a vaccine against it was developed... the spanish flu is also still present, but there is also a vaccine against it, and it is not as mortal as it was in 1918-20, because most people are now immunised against it... | [u]
I was not aware of this. I didn't think the virus can leave until as you described above, every infected person infects less than one person. This is herd immunity.
I thought the real reason we are quarantining now is so that we don't overwhelm the hospital system which would happen if to many get infected at once. However, my understanding was that until 2/3 of us get infected or a vaccine is developed, the virus will stay.
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Ora in town
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:38 am
| Quote: | | And the third was the new antibody test to see if you had adequate antibody levels (after catching it and recovering). Probably not available for the regular joe shmoe like you and I | .
An antibody test is being developed in UK, and it should cost around 5-10£, and it would work with a drop of blood, put on a paper strip and it responds "yes" or "no", a bit like a pregnancy test.
So it should be available for every Joe shmoe.
But this would be more bedi avad, to see if you had it. Which is important information, because scientists strongly suppose that people become immune after they had it, they cannot catch it again and they cannot transmit it once they had it and healed...
The other two tests are PCR tests to check whether the genome of the virus is presnt. It costs around 150$ and has to be sent in to a laboratory.
They want to devolp PCR tests (to check whether the virus is present) with a yes-no-reply for people to use themselves. However, it would probably be less reliable than the once the labs do.
Presently, in the PCR lab tests, there is 30% uncertainty with a negative test result (30% chance you have it although the test said no), so negative tests have to be repeated.
There is a third test procedure, cell culture, to check if the virus is still "alive" (can still reproduce), since the PCR test only tells that the virus is present, but not whether it is still "alive".
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Ora in town
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Sun, Apr 05 2020, 12:47 am
| Quote: | | I thought the real reason we are quarantining now is so that we don't overwhelm the hospital system which would happen if to many get infected at once. However, my understanding was that until 2/3 of us get infected or a vaccine is developed, the virus will stay | .
Indeed it is an objective to curb the exponential spread of the virus, because if 2/3 of US population get sick within 2 months, and 5% of those need ventilation, the healthcare system would be overwhelmed.
Do the math: if there is a growth of 20% per day (like it was), this means that the number of infected people doubles every three days.
So at the beginning, it goes slowly: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32... nothing to worry about.
But 2^10 is a bit more than 1000... I.e. after a month, you go from 1 to 1000... in the second month, you go from 1000 to a million, and in the third month, you would go from a million to a billion... So if you let the virus spread at this rate, it would be over in a total of 3 months (by the end of may)... but if 5% of 200 million people need intensive care at the same time, this would be 10 million ICU beds... and about 4 million would die anyway... which would also overwhelm funeral institutions...
That's why you cannot let it spread uncontrolled.
The question whether it will spread or die out goes exactly like population growth according to fertility rate: If you have one child per person (two per woman) population stays stable, if you have more than one, population grows, if you have less than one the population goes extinct in the long run.
Just that the virus multiplies faster...
With SARS 1, it was possible to completely extinguish the virus without vaccine and without herd immunity, just through isolation of sick people.
Also Ebola was controlled quite well by isoltion of sick people, without vaccine and without herd immunity, but ebola spread only through direct contact with body fluids, not so much through droplet infection...
With this virus on average, every carrier infects about 3 persons if you do nothing.
But this depends on the occasions you give the virus to jump from one person to the next. If a bartender has it, he might spread it to dozens of persons.
So that's the reason why they close bars and any place where people meet: since people can be infectious without having symptoms, you have to reduce the number of encounters each person has, then the virus has less chance to jump from one person to another.
you might achieve similar results if everybody wore a truly protective mask.
Or if it was really easy to identify infected persons and quarantining only them... (I.e. massive testing)
Or if you live in the country side in scarcely populated regions... Where you meet just one person a week...
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